Week of September 14 - September 18, 2026

Wednesday's FOMC is the week's fulcrum: Chair Kevin Warsh's committee sits with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections after August payrolls jumped 162,000 (versus about 56,000 expected), July was revised to +21,000, core CPI rose 0.3% on the month (above the 0.2% consensus), and headline CPI held at 3.4% year-on-year as gasoline jumped 3.9%. Money markets price about an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75-4.00% from the 3.50-3.75% range the Fed has held all year, after a 9-3 July hold in which Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented for a hike. Friday's Bank of Japan meeting is the second pillar: sources and 97% of economists look for a 25-basis-point move to 1.25%, the highest policy rate since 1995, three months after the June hike, with oil, a weak yen, and AI-related demand the cited upside risks to prices. Thursday's Bank of England is the hold: Bank Rate is expected to stay at 3.75% on a split vote (six unchanged, three hikes), with markets assigning only about a 32% chance of a move. Around the banks: Monday Canada CPI (seen holding at 3.0% year-on-year), Tuesday China activity and UK labour, Wednesday UK CPI and US retail sales (rebounding from July's -0.6%), and Thursday Japan CPI into the BoJ. Energy remains the overlay: Brent has been above $100 on Middle East supply risk, and Wednesday's EIA crude print lands two hours before the Fed statement.