Oil at $101 as Houthis Enter the War

Houthis Enter the War: Oil Prices Surge at the Open

The week kicks off with a fresh escalation that markets are already pricing. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis fired a "barrage of ballistic missiles and drones" at Israeli military targets on Saturday, marking their first direct involvement in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Both missiles were intercepted, but the signal to energy markets is clear: the war is widening.

Oil responded immediately. WTI crude (May futures) is up 1.62% to $101.25 per barrel in early Asia trading. Brent is at $115.35 (+2.47%), heading for what LSEG data shows is a record monthly jump. This is week five of consecutive Brent strength driven by the Hormuz closure and the unresolved conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran.

Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that his preferred outcome in Iran would be to "take the oil" - mirroring the US approach in Venezuela. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research warned that global equities are beginning to price a "higher-for-longer" scenario on both oil and interest rates, with the risk of prolonged conflict raising recession probability. The April 6 Hormuz deadline is now seven days away.

Oil: $101 WTI, Record Month for Brent - Key Levels to Watch

WTI has now rallied from its pre-crisis base of $69 to $101 - a 46% move in five weeks. David Roche of Quantum Strategy flagged over the weekend that markets are pricing an increasingly aggressive US response, including the possibility of seizing Iran's Kharg Island export hub - through which roughly 90% of Iran's oil flows. Any move on Kharg would likely trigger Iranian retaliation against Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint.

Roche estimates even a partial disruption at Bab al-Mandeb could take 4-5 million barrels per day off the market. For context, Brent is already up more than 60% since the war began on February 28. The options market is pricing a non-trivial probability of $150 Brent by end of April.

Key price levels for WTI today:

• Resistance: $101.25 (current), $103.50 (Fib extension), $106 (options flow target)
• Support: $98.50 (Friday close zone), $96 (prior structure), $92.46 (key level below)

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Gold: $4,507 - Haven Bid Intact, Watch $4,500 as New Floor

Gold is trading at $4,507 in early Monday data - a 0.3% gain since Friday's close and up 10%+ over the past month. Today's range per LiteFinance forecasts sits between $4,376 and $4,510. The $4,500 level is the psychological line: breaking above and holding it would confirm the next leg toward $4,536 resistance and then the road back toward previous highs near $5,000.

The macro setup remains bullish for gold with caveats. The Federal Reserve held rates at the March 18 meeting and cut its 2026 rate-cut projection to just one. Powell noted that oil-driven inflation is "too soon to know" but tariff-related price pressures haven't slowed as fast as anticipated. That keeps real yields elevated, which historically caps gold. But safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict is offsetting the yield headwind for now.

Today at 14:30 UTC, Fed Chair Powell speaks again. Any hint of pivot language or concern about the economic impact of sustained $100+ oil could accelerate a gold move higher. Any more hawkish framing would pressure the $4,500 support zone.

Key levels:

• Resistance: $4,510 (range high), $4,536, $4,611
• Support: $4,376 (range low), $4,300 (stop zone), $4,200 (200-day EMA - structural bull/bear line)

Bitcoin and Crypto: $67,521 - Bounce Off Lows, but Extreme Fear Persists

BTC is at $67,521 (+1.26%) and ETH at $2,047 (+2.12%) - both bouncing off the lows set during last week's selloff. The recovery is modest: BTC is still well below the $72,000 resistance zone and the Fear and Greed Index has fallen further to 8 - Extreme Fear (down from 12 on Friday). This is the lowest Fear and Greed reading since November 2025.

The bounce could be technical exhaustion after BTC's decline from $85,000 highs in late January. On-chain, whale wallets continue accumulating and exchange balances are declining - suggesting long-term holders are not capitulating. But in the near term, crypto remains tethered to the macro narrative: oil above $100 drives inflation risk, compresses rate cut expectations, and keeps institutional risk appetite suppressed across equities and crypto alike.

Key levels:

• BTC resistance: $68,500, then $72,000
• BTC support: $64,000 (must hold), then $60,000 (major structural level)
• ETH support: $1,950, resistance at $2,150

Equities and ETFs: Correction Mode Entering Critical Week

US equity futures are pointing lower after a bruising five-week run. The S&P 500 is down 5.1% YTD through March 26. The Dow entered correction territory (10%+ off peak) last Friday. The Nasdaq confirmed correction earlier in the week. Crude oil has become - in the words of Siebert Financial's CIO - "the dominant macro driver at the end of Q1, triggering repricing across equities, fixed income, and commodities."

Key ETFs to watch:

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF): Bearish bias - in correction. Watch for any bounce at the 5,500 level. Break below 5,450 accelerates downside.
• XLE (Energy Select SPDR): The only winner in this environment. Oil above $100 lifts integrated producers and refiners. Holding near 52-week highs.
• GLD (Gold ETF): Following physical gold higher. Above $4,500 = constructive for GLD breakout.
• QQQ (Nasdaq ETF): Confirmed correction. Tech faces dual pressure: higher rates (DCF headwind) and consumer slowdown risk from oil-driven inflation.

Today's Economic Calendar - High-Impact Events (UTC)

• 08:00 UTC - Germany regional CPI readings (March, preliminary): Baden-Wuerttemberg, Bavaria, Hesse all tracking 1.8-2.2% YoY
• 09:00 UTC - Eurozone Economic Sentiment (March): prior 96.5, forecast 96.0 - slight improvement expected
• 09:00 UTC - Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final (March): prior -16.3
• 12:00 UTC - Germany Inflation Rate YoY Preliminary (March): prior 2.6%, forecast 2.6%
• 14:30 UTC - Fed Chair Powell Speech (high impact - watch for oil/inflation comments)
• 14:30 UTC - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March): prior 0.7, forecast similar range
• 20:00 UTC - Fed Williams Speech (secondary)

The Powell speech at 14:30 UTC is the session's headline risk event. With oil above $100 and the April 6 Hormuz deadline approaching, any commentary on inflation durability, rate cut timelines, or recession risk will move markets. Last time Powell spoke (March 18 press conference), he said the oil price impact was "too soon to know" - markets will want an update on that framing.

What to Watch Today

• Hormuz/Iran headlines: Any diplomatic contact between US and Iran, or indication of progress toward Hormuz reopening, would be the single largest market-moving event possible. Oil down $15, gold down $50, stocks up 2%+ in a session scenario.
• Powell speech (14:30 UTC): Key risk event. Hawks = bad for gold and equities. Any dovish pivot language = bullish for BTC and gold.
• Germany CPI (12:00 UTC): March preliminary. The first major inflation print of the month. Significant beat or miss of the 2.6% forecast will set the tone for Thursday's Eurozone CPI flash.
• Houthi escalation: Watch for any attacks on Red Sea shipping or Israeli targets. Each escalation adds $2-5/bbl to Brent.
• BTC $64,000 level: If macro pressure resumes and BTC loses $64k, the next major support zone is $60,000. Below that, the structure gets ugly.

The fundamental backdrop: the week begins with oil at record monthly levels, equities in correction, gold near multi-week highs, and crypto in Extreme Fear. Everything pivots on diplomatic signals from Washington, Tehran, and Riyadh. The April 6 deadline is a hard catalyst - one way or another, next week will be decisive.