Iran Shuts Strait of Hormuz; Oil Spikes Toward $92

Iran Declares the Strait of Hormuz Closed

The Middle East conflict took its most serious turn yet overnight. After the United States carried out a second consecutive day of strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran's top joint military command announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed to oil tankers and commercial shipping, warning that any vessel attempting passage will be fired upon, per Reuters via Investing.com. The strait is the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and the threat to seal it sent crude sharply higher. WTI front-month crude trades about $91.74, up roughly 1.9 percent on the day, extending the prior session's gains. The one offset came from Washington, where President Trump said both sides are looking to do an immediate ceasefire, a comment that kept the barrel from running even harder. We tracked the first leg of this escalation in our June 10 morning analysis; the Hormuz closure is the sharpest supply threat of the episode so far. Key reference zone: WTI is holding the $90 handle while the strait stays contested. Sustained calm or a credible ceasefire would drain the war premium back toward the high $80s, while confirmed disruption to Hormuz traffic would open room toward the mid $90s.

Hot CPI, but Cooler Than Feared

Wednesday's inflation print set the tone for the week. The May Consumer Price Index rose 4.2 percent year over year, the highest reading since April 2023, with core CPI at 2.9 percent, a seven-month high, both driven largely by the energy spike tied to the Iran conflict, per Business Upturn. Hot as that looks, it landed close to consensus rather than above it, and that distinction mattered: stocks that had sold off hard pared their losses once traders saw inflation was not accelerating faster than feared, per Schwab. The bigger shift is in rate expectations. With inflation back above 4 percent, fed funds futures now lean toward a rate hike, not a cut, as the more likely year-end move, a sharp reversal from the easing markets priced earlier this spring. We previewed this print in our June 10 note, and the outcome keeps the higher-for-longer narrative firmly in charge.

Stocks Steady Ahead of FOMC Week

After a bruising Wednesday, equities are trying to stabilize. The S&P 500 closed June 10 at 7,266.99, down 1.62 percent, its worst session in weeks as the hot CPI and the Middle East shock hit together. Into Thursday the tone is firmer: S&P 500 futures point higher near 7,341, having traded in a 7,305 to 7,404 range overnight, with technology leading the bounce, per Barchart. The next macro hurdle is the Federal Reserve decision on June 16-17, the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where policymakers are widely expected to hold the benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Reference structure: a reclaim of the 7,400 zone would signal the dip buyers from this morning's futures are following through into the cash session, while a slide back below Wednesday's 7,267 low would suggest the rebound is fading.

Gold Sinks to a Seven-Month Low

Spot gold trades near $4,082, its lowest level since November, an unusual move for a safe haven during an active military conflict. The culprit is the same hot inflation print: a stronger dollar and the prospect of a higher-for-longer Fed have done more to push gold down than the war has done to lift it, with precious metals slipping as rate-hike odds firmed, per Business Upturn. It is a reminder that gold competes with cash and bonds, and when real yields rise the metal can fall even as geopolitical risk climbs. Key reference zone: the November low region is the structure traders are watching, and structural buyers have historically defended the round $4,000 area, while a firmer dollar keeps pressure on the topside.

Bitcoin Holds Near $62K as Ether Outperforms

Crypto is quiet relative to the macro drama. Bitcoin trades around $62,200, roughly flat over 24 hours, but still nursing a two-week slide from the highs above $80,000 it set in May, pressured by ETF outflows and a risk-off macro backdrop, per LatestLY. Ethereum is the day's outperformer at about $1,653, up roughly 1.2 percent, though it remains the laggard of the majors over the longer stretch. With a hawkish-leaning Fed and a strong dollar, crypto faces the same headwind as gold. Reference structure: the $60,000 psychological zone is the line traders are watching on the downside, while reclaiming $65,000 would mark the first sign the two-week downtrend is easing.

SpaceX Prices Its Record IPO Today

Away from the war and inflation, Wall Street has a landmark on the calendar. SpaceX is set to price its initial public offering today and begin trading on the Nasdaq tomorrow, Friday June 12, under the ticker SPCX, in what would be the largest IPO in history at a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation. We broke down what the company is, why it is going public, and how the deal works in our dedicated SpaceX IPO explainer. The debut lands into an unusually jittery tape, with a live geopolitical conflict, a hot inflation print, and a hawkish-leaning Fed all in play, so how SPCX trades out of the gate will test how much appetite remains for the biggest swings in technology. Also on today's calendar: the European Central Bank rate decision and the US Producer Price Index, the next read on whether pipeline inflation is still building.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Price levels cited are technical reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.