SpaceX Debuts as Oil Sinks Below $84 on Iran Deal

Oil Sinks Below $84 as Iran Peace Deal Nears

The biggest move in markets this morning is in crude. WTI front-month futures trade about $83.80, down roughly 4.5 percent on the day and at their lowest level in nearly two months, after Iranian state media reported a proposed peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC. Brent crude slipped about 4.4 percent to around $86.45. President Trump said Thursday the United States had just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, pending the finalization of documents he expects to be signed over the next few days, and a reported 14-point framework would see Iran reopen the strait within 30 days. The catch is that Tehran is pushing back: state-affiliated outlet Fars said Iran has not approved any draft text for an initial memorandum of understanding, so the de-escalation is real but not yet sealed. We tracked the spike side of this story in our June 11 analysis, when Iran had declared Hormuz closed and WTI was near $92. Key reference zone: the war premium has now largely drained, and WTI is probing the low $80s. A signed deal that reopens Hormuz would keep pressure toward the high $70s, while a breakdown in talks would put the $90 handle back in play.

SpaceX Makes Its Record Nasdaq Debut

Wall Street's marquee event lands today. SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX after pricing its initial public offering at $135 per share, selling about 555.5 million shares to raise roughly $75 billion at a valuation near $1.75 trillion, the largest IPO in history, per Fast Company. Demand has been intense: the deal is reported to be about 3.3 times oversubscribed, an imbalance that often fuels a sharp first-day pop as buyers chase a limited float. We laid out what the company is, why Elon Musk is finally taking it public after 24 years, and how the offering is structured in our dedicated SpaceX IPO explainer. The debut lands into a friendlier tape than earlier in the week, with the war premium fading and stocks near records, so first-print price discovery in SPCX will be the session's main spectacle.

Stocks Eye Fresh Records Into the Weekend

Equities enter Friday with momentum. The S&P 500 closed June 11 at 7,394.30, up 1.75 percent, a broad relief rally we covered in our June 11 evening review, with the Dow back above 50,000 and chip stocks leading. Into Friday the tone stays firm: S&P 500 E-mini futures point higher near 7,428, with one prediction market implying roughly an 83 percent chance the index opens higher, per Benzinga. The combination of fading geopolitical risk, cheaper oil and the SpaceX spectacle has the index pressing on record territory. The next macro hurdle is the Federal Reserve decision on June 16-17, Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting, where a hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent is widely expected. Bullish trigger: a clean break above the prior record near 7,400 that holds into the close. Bearish trigger: a slide back below 7,300. Invalidation of the rebound: a return under Wednesday's 7,267 low.

Gold Eases as Peace Hopes Cool the Inflation Bid

Spot gold trades near $4,210, easing back below $4,200 intraday but holding most of the prior session's bounce off a seven-month low, per Trading Economics. The same peace optimism that is sinking oil is cooling gold's inflation hedge: cheaper crude points to softer headline inflation, which trims the odds of a Fed rate hike and removes some of the rate-anxiety bid that whipsawed the metal all week. We flagged the seven-month low in our June 11 note, and the recovery since then shows how quickly the macro narrative has flipped from war-and-inflation to peace-and-disinflation. Key reference zone: the round $4,200 level is the immediate pivot, with structural buyers having historically defended the $4,000 area on deeper dips.

Bitcoin Firms Near $63.6K as Ether Lags

Crypto is riding the risk-on turn. Bitcoin trades around $63,600, up roughly 2 percent over 24 hours, extending the relief bounce as the broader crypto market added about 1.7 percent, though sentiment gauges remain in extreme-fear territory, per Coingabbar. Ethereum is the laggard near $1,674, roughly flat on the day, as record spot-ETF outflows since mid-May keep a lid on the majors. The recovery is real but modest against a two-week drawdown from the May highs above $80,000. Reference structure: $65,000 is the level traders are watching for confirmation the downtrend is easing, while a slip back under $60,000 would reopen the recent lows.

The Day Ahead

Friday is light on scheduled US data but heavy on event risk. The headline is the SpaceX debut, with traders watching how SPCX prints out of the gate after a 3.3 times oversubscribed book. Beyond that, the market is watching for any signature on the US-Iran documents that Trump flagged, since a confirmed deal or a fresh breakdown would swing oil and risk sentiment quickly. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is also on the docket as a gauge of how households are absorbing this spring's inflation scare. With the Federal Reserve decision on June 16-17 now squarely in view, positioning into the weekend will set the tone for what could be a pivotal week.

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