Wall Street heads into Wednesday with the tone flipped from geopolitics back to the Fed. As previewed in yesterday's analysis, June CPI was the week's marquee data point, and it landed cool: inflation undershot across the board, rate-hike odds collapsed, and the S&P 500 climbed back toward record territory. Bank earnings kicked off with beats, one megacap cratered, and Ether led a crypto bounce. Here is the picture at the open.
Futures Steady Near Records After Cool CPI
S&P 500 E-mini futures trade near 7,560, up about 0.2 percent from Tuesday's cash close of 7,543.59, which itself rose 0.38 percent for a third gain in four sessions. Nasdaq futures are firmer as the rate-sensitive megacap complex catches a bid, while Dow futures point modestly higher. No first-tier US data prints overnight, so the tape is still digesting Tuesday's inflation surprise and the opening salvo of earnings season. The record cash close from July 10 near 7,575 sits just overhead as the reference to reclaim.
- S&P 500 futures ~7,560 (+0.2%) from Tuesday close of 7,543.59
- Nasdaq futures firmer as rate-sensitive megacaps lead
- Record 7,575 area from July 10 is the level just overhead
Inflation Miss Sinks Rate-Hike Odds Below 20%
The June Consumer Price Index came in softer than expected across the board. The headline reading fell 0.4 percent on the month against consensus for a 0.2 percent decline, pulling the annual rate to about 3.5 percent versus the 3.8 percent economists had penciled in. The cooler print eased fears that the fresh oil impulse would force the Fed's hand. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting dropped to roughly 17 percent from 42 percent a day earlier. That repricing did the heavy lifting for stocks and is the dominant macro thread into Wednesday.
- June CPI -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected; annual ~3.5% vs 3.8%
- July rate-hike odds fell to ~17% from 42% a day earlier
- Cool print offsets the oil impulse and eases higher-for-longer worry
Bank Earnings Kick Off With Beats; IBM Craters
Earnings season opened on a strong note. Goldman Sachs jumped about 9 percent after an earnings beat, leading the financials higher, while JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo also topped estimates and Bank of America gained nearly 2 percent. Trading revenues and IPO-related fees, including work tied to recent mega-listings, were flagged as bright spots. The standout on the downside was IBM, which plunged more than 22 percent on disappointing revenue, a reminder that the dispersion under the index surface remains wide even as headline benchmarks press record highs.
Ether Jumps 6% as Crypto Catches a Bid
Digital assets are the standout mover this morning. Ethereum has surged about 6 percent to trade near $1,868, outpacing the broader complex and clawing back recent underperformance versus Bitcoin. Bitcoin sits near $64,600, little changed on the day after holding the $64,000 area through the week's geopolitical chop. The softer rate path from Tuesday's CPI is a supportive backdrop for risk assets broadly, and the relative-value rotation into Ether is the clearest expression of that in crypto.
- Ethereum ~$1,868 (+6%), leading the complex higher
- Bitcoin ~$64,600, steady after holding $64K through the chop
- Cooler rate path is a supportive backdrop for risk assets
Oil Holds Above $80; Warsh Faces the Senate
WTI crude trades near $80.50, up about 1.5 percent, holding a firm bid even after President Trump abandoned a proposed 20 percent transit fee on ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which had briefly pushed crude above $81. Brent sits above $84. Gold is quiet near $4,023, roughly flat as the softer inflation read and steadier risk tone leave safe-haven demand muted. On the calendar, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the Senate leg of his semi-annual testimony today after Tuesday's House appearance, where he argued the inflation surge of recent years would prove temporary. More bank and megacap results follow through the week.
- WTI ~$80.50 (+1.5%); Brent above $84 on lingering Hormuz risk
- Gold ~$4,023, roughly flat as safe-haven demand stays muted
- Warsh Senate testimony today after Tuesday's House appearance
Scenarios to Watch
These are reference levels, not trade recommendations. For equities, the July 10 record near 7,575 is the immediate overhead marker; a sustained reclaim would confirm the CPI-driven rebound has legs, while failure to clear it keeps the tape rangebound below the highs. Support sits back near Tuesday's 7,543 close. For oil, watch whether the Hormuz premium sticks now that the fee demand has been dropped; a clean de-escalation would unwind the bid quickly, while any fresh incident would rebuild it. In crypto, Ether's leadership versus Bitcoin is the structural signal to monitor. Warsh's Senate tone and the next batch of earnings will set the intraday direction.
- S&P record ~7,575 overhead; 7,543 as near support
- WTI $80 zone hinges on whether the Hormuz premium sticks
- Ether vs Bitcoin leadership and Warsh Senate tone in focus
As always, see the full yesterday's analysis for context and our economic calendar for the full week ahead. Daily coverage continues on Market Insights.
ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Prices are live or overnight futures levels as labeled; scheduled events and consensus figures can change, and levels cited are reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.
