Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, PepsiCo and Delta Earnings

Wall Street reopens Monday after the July 4 long weekend to one of the lightest data calendars of the summer, but the week is far from empty of catalysts. The marquee event is Wednesday's release of the minutes from Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the June 16 to 17 gathering that stripped the Fed's cutting bias. Around it sit US data deferred by the holiday, the unofficial start of Q2 earnings season, and a mechanical index event that could move billions. Bitcoin enters the week near $63,100 after retaking the level over the weekend for the first time in two weeks, while the S&P 500 sits at 7,483 after Thursday's holiday-shortened close, just shy of its record. Bookmark this page: here is every scheduled catalyst on the docket.

The Big One: Wednesday's Fed Minutes

The single most important event of the week is the June FOMC minutes, due Wednesday July 8 at 18:00 UTC. This is the first set of minutes of the Warsh era and the only public window into how the committee arrived at its hawkish June 17 statement, which stripped the "moving toward cuts" language in place since late 2025 and replaced it with a higher-for-longer hold tied to inflation staying above the 2 percent target.

Traders will comb the text for three things: the distribution of votes, meaning whether a dovish minority still argued to keep cuts open; the conditions for action, with any unemployment-rate thresholds the most market-sensitive detail; and the balance-sheet discussion, since any hint of slowing quantitative tightening is itself a form of easing. The context has shifted since June, too: last Thursday's soft jobs report, just 57,000 hires versus about 115,000 expected, handed the doves fresh ammunition.

Economic Calendar: Day by Day

The macro slate is thin but front-loaded with data pushed back by the holiday close.

• Monday July 6: Eurozone retail sales for May (09:00 UTC, prior -0.4% MoM, consensus about +0.1%), then the US ISM Services PMI for June (14:00 UTC, prior 50.7, consensus 51.3), delayed a session by the holiday. Its prices-paid sub-index is a real-time inflation read.
• Tuesday July 7: US JOLTS job openings for May (14:00 UTC, prior about 7.3M, consensus about 7.1M), also deferred; a drop below 7.0M would soften the Fed's "still-tight labor market" case.
• Wednesday July 8: the RBNZ decision (02:00 UTC) is expected to hold at 2.25 percent, with September-hike guidance the focus, then the FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC.
• Thursday July 9: China CPI and PPI for June (01:30 UTC) test whether factory-gate inflation is cooling from near four-year highs, and US initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC, prior about 210K, consensus about 230K) carry a holiday-week distortion, so treat any spike with caution.
• Friday July 10: Germany final CPI for June (06:00 UTC, consensus 2.3 percent YoY), and Canada's June employment report (12:30 UTC, prior +87.8K and 6.6 percent, consensus about +10K) tests whether May's blowout gain was a turning point ahead of the July 29 Bank of Canada decision.

Earnings to Watch

Q2 earnings season stirs to life this week, led by two consumer bellwethers that set the tone before the big banks report on July 14.

• PepsiCo (PEP), Thursday July 9, pre-market: one of the first major consumer staples names to report, consensus EPS near $2.19. The question is whether weakness in its North American snacks and beverages business is stabilising and how tariff-driven input costs are being handled.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL), Friday July 10, pre-market: the first major US carrier to report, consensus EPS near $1.43, a sharp drop from a year ago. The focus is whether premium travel demand is holding and how fuel inflation is hitting unit costs.
• TSMC June revenue, Friday July 10: the monthly sales figure from the world's largest contract chipmaker is a real-time gauge of AI hardware demand after the Meta Compute shock rattled the chip trade.

Crypto Docket

Digital assets enter the week with momentum after Bitcoin clawed back all of June's losses, but the supply calendar bears watching. Hyperliquid unlocks about 9.92 million HYPE tokens on Monday July 6, worth roughly $630 million and around 1 percent of total supply, released to core contributors. The team has historically restaked much of it rather than selling, so the impact is often muted, but it is the largest release of the week. A Rain unlock follows around July 11, part of a heavy July calendar of roughly $1.9 billion in total releases.

On the regulatory front, the SEC's late-June move to open a 27-question review of how it regulates crypto ETFs keeps the structural story alive, with fresh filings, including Morgan Stanley's for spot Bitcoin and Solana funds, still landing. The theme from last week carries over: ETF demand is broadening beyond Bitcoin and Ether into XRP, SOL and HYPE.

How the Week Could Play Out

These are scenarios to watch, not predictions or instructions. With a thin calendar, the FOMC minutes are the clear swing factor.

Scenario one, hawkish minutes. A unified committee with high inflation thresholds for any cut would confirm the "no 2026 moves" message: traders watching that outcome would look for a firmer dollar, softer gold and higher short-end yields. Scenario two, a dovish tell. A sizeable dovish minority or explicit unemployment-rate triggers, backed by the soft jobs print, could snap rate-cut bets back to life, a supportive backdrop for gold and risk assets. Scenario three, the index and earnings tape. Reporting suggests SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 around Tuesday, a change JPMorgan estimates could trigger $22 billion to $27 billion in mechanical passive buying, while PepsiCo and Delta set the early tone. The main upside-inflation risk to any calm-week thesis is a hot ISM prices-paid print or a jobless-claims spike beyond holiday noise.

This week is about calibration: the minutes tell traders how firm the Fed's resolve really is, and the first earnings prints test whether the consumer is holding up. You can catch up on last week in our weekly news roundup, and for the live schedule see our economic calendar and follow the daily coverage on Market Insights.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Prices are live or last-close levels as labeled; scheduled events and consensus figures can change, and levels cited are reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.