Semaine du 31 août 2026

Friday's August employment report is the week's fulcrum and the last hard labour print before the September 15-16 FOMC, a Summary of Economic Projections meeting. July payrolls fell 23,000, unemployment sat at 4.1%, and Chair Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole on August 28 to say inflation is still too high and that rates may have to rise in the coming months -- money markets now assign about a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on September 16 and fully price one by December. The labour tape builds through the week: JOLTS openings Tuesday, ADP private payrolls Wednesday, claims Thursday, then the BLS dump Friday, with ISM manufacturing Tuesday and ISM services Thursday as the activity cross-check after Chicago PMI collapsed to 47.1. Euro-area flash CPI lands Tuesday after Germany's preliminary reading Monday, both expected to re-accelerate on energy, while the Bank of Canada is expected to hold at 2.25% Wednesday and the RBNZ is more than 90% priced to hike to 2.75%. Broadcom after Wednesday's close is the AI-capex follow-through after Nvidia beat-and-raised and still sold off. Fed-speak from Waller, Hammack, and Goolsbee on Thursday is the last before the communications blackout that starts Saturday September 5. UK markets are shut Monday for the summer bank holiday.