Semaine du 26 octobre 2026

Friday's S&P 500 closed 7,623.68, down 0.5% on the day and 0.5% on the week, with the Nasdaq at 25,955.34, down 0.2% and 0.7% for the week, as WTI jumped 3.8% to $103.27 and Brent settled at $116.72, the highest since April, after Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and Iran strike threats. Gold last printed about $4,010, bitcoin about $81,260, the 10-year near 5.00%, and the dollar index about 101.7. Wednesday's FOMC is the week's fulcrum: Chair Kevin Warsh's committee is widely expected to hold the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, with futures pricing only about an 8 to 10% chance of another move, a December hike still the base case, and no Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting. The same Wednesday stacks the Bank of Canada (markets about 75 to 85% of a first hike in a year to 2.50%), the RBNZ (a hike to 3.00% widely expected), Australia CPI, the UK Autumn Budget, and Microsoft plus Alphabet after the close; Thursday then delivers Q3 GDP (seen 3.0% after 2.2%), September core PCE (seen 0.3% / 3.1%), the ECB (hold at 2.50% about 96% priced), and Amazon after the close, with the Bank of Japan holding at 1.25% on Friday. Friday's US flash PMIs printed in line at a 57.6 composite, eurozone activity cooled to 51.9, and UK services held at 53.1; this week's tape trades five central banks, mega-cap capex guides, and the first GDP-plus-PCE cluster of the autumn against oil still above $100.