Friday's October jobs report could set the S&P 500 this week after Tuesday's midterms. Catch up on last week here: weekly markets roundup. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.07. Bitcoin is near 77,983 dollars live. S&P 500 futures reopen Sunday at 23:00 UTC after the US clock change. Times below are Cyprus local next to UTC. Docket: the calendar.

The Big One: Friday's Jobs Report After Last Week's Fed Hold

The week pivots on Friday, November 6. The Employment Situation prints at 15:30 Cyprus (13:30 UTC), the first payrolls read since the Federal Open Market Committee held the funds rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 10-2 vote. Mechanics: jobs-report guide. September payrolls were only 29,000. Consensus is a bounce to 65,000, unemployment unchanged at 4.2 percent, and average hourly earnings re-accelerating to 0.3 percent after 0.1 percent. Wages map to the December 8-9 meeting. JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP on Wednesday, and claims on Thursday are the previews.

Key Takeaways: The Big One
  • Friday 15:30 Cyprus (13:30 UTC): October payrolls seen +65,000 after +29,000
  • Unemployment seen 4.2%; wages seen +0.3% after +0.1%. Wages map to December
  • Previews: JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, claims Thursday

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Monday 2 November through Friday 6 November. Consensus versus prior. US clocks fell back on 1 November, so Eastern stamps sit one hour later in UTC. Cyprus is on Eastern European Time. Not an options-expiry week; November monthly expiry is 20 November. OPEC+ held December quotas on Sunday. Tokyo is shut Tuesday for Culture Day.

  • Monday, Nov 2: China RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 03:45 Cyprus (01:45 UTC), seen 51.6 after 52.1, after Saturday's official 49.3. Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI finals at 11:00 and 11:30 Cyprus, seen 52.4 and 52.8. ISM manufacturing at 17:00 Cyprus (15:00 UTC), seen 54.7 after 54.5, prices paid seen 77.2 after 77.9.
  • Tuesday, Nov 3: RBA cash rate at 05:30 Cyprus (03:30 UTC), a hike to 4.85% from 4.60% widely priced, Governor Michele Bullock at 06:30 Cyprus (04:30 UTC). US midterms all day; polls close from 18:00 Eastern (23:00 UTC). Prediction markets on Sunday favor a Democratic House. JOLTS at 17:00 Cyprus (15:00 UTC), seen 7.10 million openings after 7.079 million.
  • Wednesday, Nov 4: Eurozone flash CPI at 12:00 Cyprus (10:00 UTC), seen 3.9% headline and 2.5% core after 3.8% and 2.5%. CPI: inflation guide. ADP at 15:15 Cyprus (13:15 UTC), seen +75,000 after +90,000. ISM services at 17:00 Cyprus (15:00 UTC), seen 54.8 after 54.9. EIA crude at 17:30 Cyprus (15:30 UTC), after a 1.89 million-barrel draw. The Riksbank and Brazil also decide.
  • Thursday, Nov 5: Bank of England at 14:00 Cyprus (12:00 UTC), a hike to 4.00% from 3.75% about 99% priced, Governor Andrew Bailey at 14:30 Cyprus (12:30 UTC). A 7-2 vote is widely seen. Claims seen 197,000 after 194,000 at 15:30 Cyprus (13:30 UTC). Norges Bank and Banxico also decide.
  • Friday, Nov 6: US payrolls at 15:30 Cyprus (13:30 UTC), details above. Canada jobs at the same stamp, seen +16,100 after -68,300. Michigan sentiment at 17:00 Cyprus (15:00 UTC), seen 47.2 after 48.0. Fed speakers from 18:00 Cyprus (16:00 UTC). FOMC: Fed guide.
Key Takeaways: The Calendar
  • Tuesday 05:30 Cyprus: RBA, seen 4.85%. US midterms the same day; JOLTS at 17:00 Cyprus
  • Thursday 14:00 Cyprus: BoE, seen 4.00%, about 99% priced. Claims 90 minutes later
  • Friday 15:30 Cyprus: payrolls seen +65,000. Not an options-expiry week

Earnings to Watch

Aerial view of Apple Park in Cupertino at sunset, week ahead Nov 2 2026

The index event is Apple on Monday after last week's Intel plunge and Amazon's cash-flow miss. Consensus EPS figures below are Nasdaq compilations via Stock Titan.

  • Monday after the close: Apple, EPS about 1.98 dollars, call at 00:00 Cyprus Tuesday (22:00 UTC). Services growth and the 2027 capital-spending line are what the Nasdaq trades. Palantir the same evening, EPS about 0.33 dollars.
  • Tuesday after the close: AMD, EPS about 1.68 dollars, call at 00:00 Cyprus Wednesday (22:00 UTC). Data-center GPU growth is the semiconductor tell the night of the midterms. Shopify and Pfizer report before the open.
  • Wednesday: Uber before the open, EPS about 0.94 dollars, call at 15:00 Cyprus (13:00 UTC). Qualcomm after the close, EPS about 1.46 dollars.
  • Thursday after the close: Cloudflare, Airbnb and DraftKings. Friday before the open: Moderna and Oklo.
Key Takeaways: Earnings
  • Monday after the close: Apple seen about $1.98, Palantir about $0.33
  • Tuesday after the close: AMD seen about $1.68, the chip print into midterms
  • Wednesday: Uber about $0.94 before the open; Qualcomm about $1.46 after the close

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 77,983 dollars live (Coinbase; Kraken 77,995). Live levels: homepage. No US spot-ETF decision deadline this week. BTW unlocks about 149 million dollars on Monday, 2 November. Hyperliquid's core-contributor vesting date is Friday, 6 November, the same morning as payrolls. Trackers model about 9.92 million HYPE; treat that as a ceiling, not a confirmed sale.

Key Takeaways: Crypto
  • Bitcoin about $77,983 (live). No ETF deadline this week
  • Monday: BTW unlock about $149 million
  • Friday: HYPE modeled 9.92 million tokens, the same morning as payrolls

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a soft-labour path, JOLTS openings drop, ADP cools, and Friday payrolls print well below 65,000 with wages still at 0.1 percent, so December odds fade. In a hot-wage path, ISM prices paid stay in the 70s, JOLTS hold above 7.3 million, and Friday wages print 0.4 percent, which would treat December as live after last week's 10-2 hold. In a capex-scare path, Apple raises 2027 spending or AMD guides data-center GPU growth lower, extending Friday's Nasdaq fade. Traders watching 7,580.07 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Thursday's 7,720.39 then 7,732.21. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,527.56 low. Bitcoin bullish observation: a hold of about 77,983 dollars. Bearish: Friday's session low near 76,300. These are observations, not instructions.

Key Takeaways: The Week Ahead
  • A cool payrolls print with contained Apple capex would let December odds sit
  • A 0.4% wage print, or a heavy Apple or AMD guide, would extend last week's fade
  • S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,720.39 then 7,732.21. Bearish: 7,527.56

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. The S&P 500 figure is Friday's cash close. Bitcoin is live as of this Sunday note. Levels cited are observations, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.