What Moved Since Morning

  • IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest in its history, to counter the Iran war-driven price spike. G7 energy ministers backed the plan in principle. Markets shrugged: Brent rallied 5.3% to $92.46 anyway.
  • U.S. forces sank 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Tanker traffic through the strait remains near zero. Until ships actually transit, oil stays bid on every escalation headline.
  • CPI landed at 2.4% YoY as expected. Core at 3.2%. No surprises, which is exactly what markets needed. The data is backward-looking; the oil shock has not hit these numbers yet.
  • BTC slipped to $69,602 (-1.8%), now firmly below the $70K psychological level. Fear & Greed at 15 (Extreme Fear). Historically a bottoming zone, but macro headwinds are real.
  • Indian markets tanked over 1% with Nifty breaking below 24,000 on Iran war spillover. European indices mixed. S&P 500 flat at 6,772.

Key Prices

  • BTC: $69,602 (-1.8%) | Support $68,500, Resistance $72,800
  • Gold: $5,197 (+0.8%) | Holding war premium, dip buyers active above $5,050
  • Oil (Brent): $92.46 (+5.3%) | WTI at $88.36. Reserve release talk vs. zero Hormuz traffic
  • S&P 500: 6,772 (-0.14%) | Digesting CPI, waiting on Fed speakers

Afternoon Watch

The IEA reserve decision lands today. If confirmed, expect a knee-jerk oil sell-off, but Tuesday showed how fast dips get bought while Hormuz stays blocked. For BTC, $68,500 is the line in the sand. A break below opens $65,000. Gold remains the cleanest trade: geopolitical bid plus soft real yields. Watch for Fed commentary on the CPI print this afternoon.