What Moved This Morning
- Three more ships struck overnight in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz, including a container vessel hit by a projectile 35 nautical miles from Dubai. That brings recent attacks to 17 vessels total. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned that anything passing through will be targeted.
- Brent crude touched $100/bbl for the second time this week, trading up roughly 9% on the session. WTI is at $94.49. The market completely shrugged off the US announcement of a 172 million barrel SPR release and the IEA's coordinated 400M-barrel dump. Traders see reserve draws as confirmation the disruption is structural.
- BTC reclaimed $70,400 (+1.2%) after dipping to $69.3K overnight. Fear and Greed sits at 18 (Extreme Fear), yet price keeps bouncing off $69K. ETH is up 2.1% at $2,071. Risk assets showing resilience despite the macro chaos.
- Gold steady at $5,182/oz, up modestly as the haven bid offsets dollar strength from yesterday's clean CPI print (2.4% YoY). Holding above $5,150 support comfortably.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to around 6,715. Dow futures fell 200 points at the open. Energy stocks are the only sector in the green.
Afternoon Watch
All eyes on Brent's $100 level. A sustained close above it shifts the narrative from "spike" to "new regime" for oil. Watch for any US Navy escort announcements for the Strait, which would be the only catalyst that could cool crude in the short term. For BTC, $69K remains the line in the sand. Holding it through a day where oil hits triple digits and equities sell off would be a quietly bullish signal.
