Micron Blowout Powers Chip Rebound Before PCE Data

The week's mood flipped overnight. After three sessions defined by an AI chip rout, one earnings report did what no dip buyer could manage during the cash day: it put a floor under the trade and sent futures climbing. Micron's blowout guidance lit a fire under risk appetite, with Nasdaq-100 futures jumping about 1.8 percent and S&P 500 futures rising roughly 0.6 percent into Thursday, even though the cash Nasdaq Composite had eased 0.43 percent to 25,476.64 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.10 percent to 7,358.22 on June 24. As flagged in last night's review, the whole tape hinged on the memory maker's print, and the answer arrived with force. Here is the picture as the session opens, with one major macro hurdle still ahead.

The Overnight: Micron Reframes the Tape

This was a sentiment reset, not just a single stock pop. The relief rippled straight across Asia, where South Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI surged as much as 6 percent and the broader MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed about 1.5 percent, a near-mirror reversal of the near double-digit Korean drop that helped kick off the rout earlier in the week. As Bloomberg reports, US futures surged on the strong forecast, with the memory maker's outlook signalling that the AI-fueled growth run remains intact. The same crowded, richly valued names that bled hardest in the Monday-to-Wednesday selloff are the ones now set to lead the bounce, which is exactly how these violent rotations tend to resolve once a fresh data point breaks the narrative.

Story of the Day: Micron's $50 Billion Guide

The catalyst was emphatic. Micron posted record quarterly revenue of about $41.46 billion, crushing the roughly $35.6 billion analysts expected, with adjusted earnings near $25.11 a share against a $20.60 estimate. The guidance did the real damage to the bears: the company pointed to roughly $49 billion to $51 billion in revenue for the current quarter, miles above the $43 billion Wall Street had penciled in, declared a $0.15 dividend, and said demand from AI-driven markets remains strong. The stock soared as much as 15 percent after the bell. The print speaks directly to the fear that drove this week's selling, the worry that hyperscaler AI spending would not earn its keep, and rebuts it with the clearest evidence yet that memory demand is accelerating rather than fading.

The PCE Test Still Looms

The rebound is not a free pass, because the calendar has its own plans. Traders now turn to today's PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the single most important macro release of the week. The backdrop is firmly hawkish: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on June 17, and the June projections nudged the yearend PCE inflation forecast up toward 3.6 percent, with core PCE last running near 3.3 percent. A hot print would revive the higher-for-longer rate fear that has bitten the same long-duration tech names a Micron-led bounce would lift, mechanically lowering the present value of their distant cash flows. As CNBC notes, the data run is what stands between this relief impulse and a durable turn. A cooler-than-feared number would let the chip rebound broaden out.

Crypto: Bitcoin Steadies After the Week's Slide

Digital assets took their cue from the broader risk-on shift, but more cautiously than equity futures. Bitcoin held roughly flat near $61,724 over the past 24 hours, clawing back a sliver of this week's losses after the Micron beat lifted risk sentiment, though it remains down on the week after sliding under $60,000 midweek. Ethereum eased toward $1,652.80, continuing to lag the majors. With the equity tape leading and macro in charge, crypto is still trading as a high-beta risk asset rather than a haven, taking its direction from futures and yields rather than any crypto-specific catalyst. The structure to watch: the $60,000 round number is the key reference zone after the midweek break, and a daily hold back above $62,000 would be the first sign the damage is repairing. A slip back beneath $60,000 would keep the near-term pressure on.

Gold and Oil Both Stay Heavy

The commodity unwind that started with the Iran peace progress rolled on. Spot gold held below $4,000 near $3,978, struggling to reclaim the psychological mark as the fading geopolitical risk premium and firm real yields keep trimming safe-haven demand. With a risk-on impulse now flowing back into equities, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal stays elevated, and $4,000 flips from former floor to the first hurdle on any bounce. Crude told the same story from the supply side: WTI fell below $70 to about $69.42, its lowest since late February, as increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and continued US-Iran peace progress ease the threat of disruption. As the FXDailyReport analysis lays out, the path of least resistance stays lower while the diplomatic track holds. The reference for crude is the $70 line, now overhead resistance, with a stall in talks the main risk that could rebuild the premium.

What to Watch Today

Thursday is a two-act session. The first act is whether Micron's after-hours surge carries into the cash open and drags the broader semiconductor complex and Nasdaq higher with it, finally giving dip buyers the catalyst they lacked all week. If memory and AI names follow Micron, the returns-doubt panic that defined the start of the week could fade as fast as it arrived. The second act is the PCE print, which can override the relief in an instant. Bullish trigger: a benign PCE number alongside chips broadening the rebound out beyond Micron. Bearish trigger: a hot inflation read that reasserts higher-for-longer pressure, or a futures rally that fails to hold once the cash session opens. In crypto, the test is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $62,000 or whether it stays pinned below $60,000.

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