US-Iran Truce Lifts Futures After AI Selloff Week

Markets open the holiday-shortened week with a sigh of relief. After a weekend war scare sent US strikes and Iranian counterattacks rippling across the Middle East, the two sides have reportedly agreed to halt the fighting and meet Tuesday in Doha, per an Axios report cited by Yahoo Finance. The de-escalation lifted US stock futures across the board and steadied a tape still nursing wounds from last week's $1.4 trillion artificial-intelligence selloff. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.5 percent, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.9 percent, oil firmed, and Bitcoin clung to the $60,000 level. For the week's full data map, see our week ahead. Here is where things stand at the European open.

Markets Steady as US and Iran Pull Back

The headline is geopolitical. After Washington struck Iranian facilities over the weekend and Tehran retaliated against US installations near the Strait of Hormuz, an Axios report says the two nations have agreed to stop fighting and restart negotiations in Qatar on Tuesday, per Investing.com. The reaction was textbook risk-on relief: S&P 500 ES futures rose about 0.5 percent toward 7,448, Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.9 percent, and the more defensive Dow contracts added 0.2 percent. Apple traded higher in the premarket, leading a tentative bounce in the same tech names that were punished last week. With US cash markets reopening Monday after Friday's close, the futures move signals an attempt to stabilise rather than a confirmed reversal.

The Backdrop: A Brutal Week for the AI Trade

The rebound has to climb out of a deep hole. Last week was the worst for growth stocks in more than a year, as a crisis of confidence in the AI build-out erased roughly $1.4 trillion in market value. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6 percent to close Friday at 25,297.62, its fifth straight losing session, while the S&P 500 dropped 2 percent to 7,354.02. The trigger was a reported delay to OpenAI's public listing into 2027, which cracked sentiment across the chip complex and dragged the longest-duration technology names sharply lower. A hotter than expected core PCE inflation print of 3.4 percent compounded the damage by reviving higher-for-longer rate fears. Monday's futures bounce is the first test of whether buyers will step into that weakness or treat any strength as a chance to keep rotating out of crowded AI positions.

Oil and Gold Recalibrate on De-Escalation

Commodities are repricing the lower geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude firmed toward $69 in Asian trade, a modest bounce after the contract shed about 10 percent last week to a four-month low near $68.86 as Strait of Hormuz transits resumed. The truce cuts both ways for oil: it removes the immediate threat to the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of global crude, capping any fear-driven spike, while the resumption of normal flows keeps a lid on prices. Gold eased toward $4,060 as the safe-haven bid that built over the weekend unwound, extending a run of weekly declines pressured by a firm dollar and elevated real yields after the hot PCE print. The metal remains well below its January all-time high near $5,600.

Bitcoin Clings to $60,000 in Extreme Fear

Crypto is trying to stabilise alongside equities but remains fragile. Bitcoin held the $60,000 level, up about 0.3 percent over 24 hours after last week's plunge below $58,000, its lowest level since September 2024, per Crypto Times. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 18 in extreme fear, a reading that has historically marked sentiment washouts, and on-chain data shows large wallets quietly accumulating below $60,000 even as spot ETFs bled more than $1.79 billion last week. Ethereum traded near $1,578, still pressured by the Ethereum Foundation's 20 percent staff cut. The $60,000 round number is the near-term pivot, and the $58,000 area is the key reference zone buyers defended last week. A daily close back above $60,000 would be the first sign the panic is stabilising, while a fresh loss of $58,000 would reopen the downside.

The Week Ahead: Jobs Report Pulled Forward

The relief bounce runs straight into a front-loaded data calendar. Because US markets close Friday July 3 for the observed Independence Day holiday, the June jobs report is pulled forward to Thursday July 2 at 12:30 UTC. It is the first major labor read since Chair Warsh's June 17 FOMC stripped the Fed's cutting bias and left markets pricing zero rate cuts for 2026. Consensus looks for roughly 130,000 to 160,000 payrolls with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. Before that, Wednesday brings a heavy block: the Eurozone flash CPI, US ADP private payrolls, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, whose prices-paid sub-index feeds directly into the inflation narrative. China PMIs land Tuesday. With Friday dark for US markets, any data surprise risks an outsized, gap-prone reaction into thin holiday liquidity.

Scenarios to Watch Monday

The session hinges on whether the de-escalation holds and whether buyers defend last week's lows. A durable truce paired with stabilising AI names would let the S&P build back toward 7,400 to 7,450, with the Friday close at 7,354 as the structural reference and a reclaim of that level the first bullish trigger. A renewed flare-up in the Middle East or another leg lower in chip stocks would be the bearish trigger, putting last week's lows back in play and pressuring an already fragile tape. For crypto, the $58,000 to $60,000 band remains the structure to watch. Traders watching the macro picture will key on whether the relief survives contact with Wednesday's ISM and ADP data, the warm-up acts before Thursday's main event. Describe what the tape is showing, not what it owes you: this is a relief bounce inside a damaged trend until the data proves otherwise.

It is a high-stakes open: a genuine diplomatic breakthrough running into a wounded AI trade and a compressed data week. Bookmark this page and check our economic calendar for the live schedule into Thursday's jobs report.