Futures Steady as July PPI Follows Tame CPI Print

One inflation hurdle cleared, one still to come. As previewed in yesterday's morning analysis and recapped in the evening review, the July Consumer Price Index landed broadly on forecast and let stocks grind back toward a record. This morning the tape faces the sequel: the July Producer Price Index at 08:30 Eastern, the wholesale read that feeds straight into the Federal Reserve's September call. Futures are flat, gold is parked near a record, and a fresh 2.25 billion dollar crypto deal is stirring the digital-asset tape. This is the morning scorecard and a map of what is coming, not an instruction to act on any asset.

The Setup: Futures Flat Before the PPI

The overnight tape is quiet by design. After the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,748.50, up 0.26 percent and back within a whisker of Friday's 7,757.64 record, US index futures are little changed: Dow futures sit just under the flatline, S&P 500 futures are broadly flat and Nasdaq-100 futures firmed about 0.12 percent. The Nasdaq Composite had led Wednesday at 26,588.49 (+0.54 percent). With cash markets shut at this hour, treat the S&P reference as Wednesday's close plus a flat futures bid rather than a live print. The bigger picture has not moved: the 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.7 percent and rate markets are split, pricing roughly a 46 to 51 percent chance the Fed still nudges policy at its September 15 to 16 meeting. Every desk knows the next real catalyst is the data, not the futures tape.

Story of the Day: The July PPI, the Next Inflation Test

The number that frames the morning drops at 08:30 Eastern. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the headline Producer Price Index to rise about 0.2 percent on the month, with the annual pace easing to roughly 4.9 percent from 5.5 percent. Core PPI, stripping out food and energy, is seen near 0.3 percent monthly and 4.2 percent year over year, down from 4.7 percent. Alongside it, initial jobless claims are forecast near 202,000, just above last week's 199,000. The PPI matters because wholesale prices often foreshadow what shows up at the consumer level, and because several components feed directly into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. After Wednesday's in-line CPI bought the Fed time without forcing its hand, a soft PPI would reinforce the cooling narrative that has underpinned risk since the weak July jobs report, while a hot print would revive the case for the Fed to stay restrictive. Live levels across these names sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

Crypto: Goldman's $2.25B Bet and Fidelity's ETH Push

Digital assets shrugged off the CPI and are now trading on their own headlines. Bitcoin steadied near 63,800 dollars and Ether held near 1,896 dollars after the tame inflation print failed to jolt the space either way. The bigger story is institutional. Goldman Sachs agreed to buy exchange-traded fund manager NEOS for 2.25 billion dollars, a deal that hands the bank a ready-made roughly 1 billion dollar Bitcoin covered-call fund and a deeper foothold in packaged crypto exposure. Separately, Fidelity asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to let its Ethereum fund stake up to 100 percent of its holdings and distribute quarterly cash rewards, a structural step that would let a spot ETH product earn staking yield. Both moves point the same direction: the plumbing that channels traditional money into crypto keeps getting built out, even on a session where prices are quiet. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin: a clean push back above 64,000 dollars. Bearish trigger: a slip under this week's 63,000 dollar shelf. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

Gold Near a Record, Crude Cools

Commodities are pulling in opposite directions this morning. Gold is firm near 4,375 dollars, holding close to record territory after Wednesday's tame CPI pulled real yields lower and reinforced the rate-cut narrative that has made the metal one of 2026's standout stories. A soft PPI this morning would only strengthen that backdrop. Crude, by contrast, is cooling: West Texas Intermediate eased about 1.4 percent to near 82.11 dollars, giving back part of this week's rally as the supply-risk premium from the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman attacks faded and traders reassessed conflicting US-Iran signals. The pullback is a relief for the inflation picture, since energy costs feed straight into the wholesale numbers due this morning, though the geopolitical wildcard has not gone away. For now, gold's steadiness and oil's slip leave the commodity complex leaning gently disinflationary into the print.

Earnings and the Day Ahead

The single-stock tape stays busy. Before the opening bell Thursday, Brookfield, JD.com and Tapestry are due to report, spanning alternative assets, Chinese e-commerce and the Coach and Kate Spade owner in consumer luxury. They follow a strong run of AI-driven results, with Wednesday's after-hours winners including Cava and CoreWeave extending the earnings-season momentum. Three things are worth watching into the US session: whether the July PPI confirms or complicates the cooling signal from CPI; whether the S&P can finally reclaim its 7,757.64 record once the data clears; and how jobless claims read against a labor market that has softened enough to keep rate cuts in the conversation. Bullish trigger for the S&P: a clean break above 7,757.64. Bearish trigger: a hot PPI that snaps yields higher and pressures rate-sensitive names. Invalidation of the calm tone: a slide back through this week's 7,728 area.

For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, plus per-asset AI takes, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset; it is market commentary describing what the data and the tape are showing.