Chip Rebound Powers Futures Ahead of TSMC Earnings

Wall Street heads into Thursday with the semiconductor trade back in the driver's seat. As covered in yesterday's evening review, memory-chip names wobbled midweek even as the S&P 500 closed within a whisker of its record. Overnight, the chip complex roared back: SK Hynix's US-listed shares surged, ASML underscored resilient demand, and Seoul's Kospi staged a violent recovery. Now a heavy slate of earnings and US data lands into a market sitting at all-time highs. Here is the picture at the open.

Futures Firmer Near Records After Chip Rebound

S&P 500 E-mini futures trade near 7,615, pointing modestly higher after Wednesday's cash close of 7,572.40, up 0.38 percent and just shy of the July 10 record near 7,575. Nasdaq 100 futures are firmer as the rebound in semiconductors lifts the rate-sensitive megacap complex, while Dow futures point slightly higher after the index settled at 52,658.64. The Nasdaq Composite set a fresh record of 26,269.23 on Wednesday, and futures suggest that momentum is carrying into Thursday. No first-tier US data has printed overnight, so the tape is trading the chip bounce and positioning for a busy session of earnings and economic releases.

Chip Rebound: SK Hynix and ASML Revive the AI Trade

The standout overnight story is the sharp recovery in semiconductors. SK Hynix American depositary receipts jumped about 27 percent, and the read-through powered a violent bounce in Seoul, where the Kospi reclaimed the 7,200 line with a gain of roughly 6 percent after slumping below 7,000 earlier in the week on an AI-capex scare. Chip-equipment bellwether ASML backed the move with a solid outlook, easing fears that AI-infrastructure spending was rolling over. The rebound reverses much of the memory-chip weakness that saw names like Micron slide about 8 percent midweek, and it puts the semiconductor complex back at the center of the risk narrative just as earnings season shifts to the sector's marquee name.

TSMC and Netflix Headline a Packed Earnings Day

The corporate calendar is dense. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reports second-quarter results today, and expectations are elevated: the foundry's June revenue jumped about 68 percent year over year, its fastest monthly growth of 2026, and analysts are looking for net-profit growth in the high-50s to 60 percent range. Given the chip complex just staged an overnight rebound, TSMC's revenue trajectory, margins and capex guidance will be the tell on whether AI demand is still accelerating. After the US close, Netflix delivers its own numbers, with the market focused on subscriber additions, advertising momentum and content spend. More bank and megacap results round out the week.

Retail Sales and Jobless Claims in Focus

On the macro side, two US releases headline the session. June retail sales are seen rising a modest 0.2 percent on the month after May's 0.9 percent jump, with the closely watched control group forecast at a firmer 0.5 percent, a read on whether the consumer is still carrying the expansion. Weekly initial jobless claims are expected near 217,000 against 215,000 prior, with continuing claims around 1.82 million. The data follows this week's cooler CPI and softer PPI, which have kept the disinflation story intact and rate-hike odds subdued. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony remains a background thread after his appearances earlier in the week.

Ether Leads Crypto as Bitcoin Holds $64K

Digital assets keep their recent tilt toward Ether. Ethereum trades near $1,907, up about 2 percent, extending its leadership over Bitcoin as the softer rate path supports risk assets. Bitcoin sits near $64,500, little changed on the day after holding the $64,000 area through the week. The steadier macro backdrop from cooling inflation data is a constructive tailwind for the complex, and the relative-value rotation into Ether remains the clearest expression of that in crypto.

Oil Holds $80, Gold Steady as Data Awaited

WTI crude trades near $80, holding a firm bid after rising about 1 percent on Wednesday, with a lingering Strait of Hormuz risk premium keeping a floor under prices even as the acute geopolitical flare-up has cooled. Brent sits above $83. Gold is quiet near $4,028, roughly flat as the softer inflation reads and steadier risk tone leave safe-haven demand muted. With the chip rebound driving equities and a heavy data-and-earnings docket ahead, commodities are largely marking time into the US session.

Scenarios to Watch

These are reference levels, not trade recommendations. For equities, the July 10 record near 7,575 is the immediate overhead marker; a sustained push above it on cash open would confirm the chip-led rebound has legs, while a failure to clear it keeps the tape rangebound just below the highs with Wednesday's 7,572 close as near support. TSMC's guidance is the structural signal for the semiconductor trade: a strong capex and demand outlook would validate the overnight bounce, while any hesitation could reignite the AI-capex worry. In crypto, Ether's leadership versus Bitcoin is the relationship to monitor. Retail sales and jobless claims will set the intraday macro tone, and Netflix after the close caps the session.

For context on how the session set up, see yesterday's evening review and our economic calendar for the full week ahead. Daily coverage continues on Market Insights.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Prices are live or overnight futures levels as labeled; scheduled events and consensus figures can change, and levels cited are reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.