Nvidia Sheds 5% as Chips Sink Into Fed Eve

The most consequential week of the quarter has reached its pivot. The Federal Open Market Committee opens its two-day meeting today, Tuesday, July 28, with the decision landing Wednesday, and markets are treading carefully into it. Wall Street closed mixed on Monday as a deepening semiconductor selloff, led by a roughly 5 percent drop in Nvidia, offset a relief rally in energy-sensitive names after oil kept sliding on US-Iran de-escalation. This morning Bitcoin trades near $63,500 and gold holds close to $4,055, both a touch softer as caution builds ahead of a live Fed decision and a wall of mega-cap earnings that begins with Meta after tonight's close. What follows is the full morning scorecard and the road map into the decision. These are events to watch, not instructions to act on any asset.

For yesterday's setup see our Monday morning analysis, and for how the session finished catch up on the Monday evening review.

Chips Lead the Tape Lower

The dominant equity story is the semiconductor selloff. Nvidia fell about 5 percent after unveiling a roughly $500 billion AI-memory supply agreement with SK Hynix, a deal that markets read as a sign of just how much capital the AI build-out is consuming rather than as a clean positive. The move dragged the chip complex lower for a second session and kept the Nasdaq under pressure even as the broader tape steadied. The S&P 500 finished Monday at 7,413.18, up a bare 0.02 percent, while the Dow rose 0.51 percent to 52,210.08 as lower oil lifted cyclicals. The split tape captures the moment perfectly: cheaper crude is helping the economically sensitive corners while the AI-spending anxiety that felled Big Tech last week still hangs over the leadership.

The Fed Decision Lands Wednesday

The gravitational center of the week is the FOMC, which begins its two-day meeting today and delivers its decision Wednesday, July 29 at 18:00 UTC, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference half an hour later. It is only the second meeting since Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell, and the crowd expects a hold. CME FedWatch odds of the Fed staying at 3.50 to 3.75 percent sat around 64 percent late last week, down sharply from the high-80s a fortnight earlier as the oil scare that briefly revived hike talk unwound. Softer labor data and a cooler headline CPI argue for patience, while elevated Treasury yields complicate any dovish lean. Crucially, this meeting carries no updated projections and no dot plot, so the entire signal rests on the statement's wording and the tone of the presser, which will be tested almost immediately by the data that follows later in the week.

Earnings Wall: Meta Headlines Tonight

Layered on top of the Fed is the heaviest earnings stretch of the season. Meta Platforms reports after Tuesday's close, and with the stock down sharply on the year, investors are focused less on the headline number than on evidence that its heavy AI investment is beginning to pay off. It shares today's calendar with a broad cross-section of the economy, including Visa, Boeing, UPS, PayPal, Ford and Royal Caribbean. The mega-cap gauntlet then continues with Microsoft on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. After Alphabet and Tesla triggered last week's rout, the market's obsession is capital-expenditure guidance rather than the headline beat, so cloud growth at Azure and AWS and any fresh AI-spending commitments are the swing factors that could either soothe or reopen the wound in the leadership.

Oil Keeps Sliding on Iran De-escalation

Energy remains the release valve for the whole macro picture. WTI crude is trading near $84.50, extending Monday's slide, after opening around $86 and touching an intraday low near $83.19, as the war premium that briefly carried Brent above $100 continues to drain out. The move traces back to the pause in US-Iran strikes and progress toward reopening negotiations, which has revived expectations that Iranian barrels can re-enter global markets and eased fears over the Strait of Hormuz. The read-through into the Fed is direct: crude sliding back toward the mid $80s pulls a large chunk of the recent hawkish inflation scare straight back out of the curve on the eve of the decision, which is exactly why the hold odds have firmed again.

Crypto Eases Ahead of the Decision

Digital assets are drifting lower and coiled ahead of the Fed. Bitcoin trades near $63,500, off about 1.1 percent on the day, and Ether sits near $1,884, down roughly 1.4 percent, both easing back from the top of last week's range as broad risk appetite cools into the decision. The dominant driver this week is macro rather than native: a hold with balanced-to-soft language could ease the financial conditions Bitcoin tracks closely, while a hawkish surprise would do the opposite. On the calendar, Friday's month-end options expiry rolls off a large Bitcoin and Ether notional, and Coinbase reports Thursday. Live levels and ETF-flow data for the top of the market are visible on the ThriveInMarkets homepage. $63,000 is the near-term reference zone traders are watching; a sustained break below it would weaken the short-term structure, while reclaiming $65,000 would repair it.

Gold, Data and What to Watch

Gold is quietly steady, holding near $4,055 and comfortably above the $4,000 handle as it consolidates the risk-relief bid from earlier in the week. Beyond the Fed and Big Tech, today's macro calendar is busy: the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index at 09:00 UTC-4, then CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 100.5) and JOLTS job openings (forecast 7.95 million) at 10:00 UTC-4, ahead of the advance reading of second-quarter US GDP on Thursday and the June PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. Three broad scenarios frame the days ahead, none of them a prediction or an instruction to trade. In the relief case, the Fed holds with a soft tone and Big Tech pairs solid numbers with digestible capex, letting stocks repair last week's damage. In the hawkish-inflation case, a firm statement or hot data revives the rate worries the oil scare had planted. In the capex-shock repeat, even a benign Fed cannot offset another week of AI spending without a payoff, reopening the mega-cap wound. Follow the daily play-by-play on Market Insights and the full schedule on the economic calendar.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Crypto, gold and oil figures are live prints as of 08:00 UTC Tuesday, July 28; the S&P 500 figure is Monday's cash-session close with futures quoted separately. Dates and times are scheduled events subject to change. Levels and scenarios cited are technical reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.