Monday opens on a split tape. The docket sits in this morning's week-ahead note: Bessent's Iran briefing later today, Nvidia and core PCE on Wednesday, Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday. Cash is still shut. Overnight E-mini futures sit near 7,673, a whisker under Friday's 7,674.37 close. The cleaner move is in the metals. Spot gold is near 4,650 dollars, the highest since May 15. West Texas Intermediate has faded toward 85.60 dollars. Bitcoin holds near 77,300 dollars after last week's roughly 22 percent squeeze. Catch up: weekend recap. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.
The Setup: Futures Sit Flat After Friday's Repair
Treat the S&P reference as Friday's close plus a slightly softer overnight futures print. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,674.37, up 0.43 percent on the day and down 1.43 percent on the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,180.46. The Dow closed at 53,277.01. E-mini S&P 500 futures are near 7,673.25 as of about 07:49 UTC, down 0.23 percent, range 7,669.00-7,703.25, labeled here as overnight futures. Nasdaq-100 futures are softer near 29,161.50, down 0.77 percent. The VIX is near 15.93. Asia already paid: South Korea slid 2.8 percent and Alibaba's Hong Kong line dropped about 9.5 percent after a 10.2 billion dollar share offer. PDD reports before the US open, call at 11:30 UTC. Reuters has the 30-year yield still near 5.25 percent, close to Tuesday's 19-year high.
- S&P Friday close 7,674.37; overnight ES futures 7,673
- Nasdaq closed 26,180.46; NQ futures softer overnight near 29,162
- Alibaba HK ~-9.5% on a $10.2B share offer; PDD before the open
- US cash is still closed; figures above are Friday close plus overnight futures
Story of the Day: Gold Hits a Three-Month High Near $4,650
The metal is doing what last week's Treasury-buyback tape started. Spot gold is near 4,650 dollars, through Friday's Kitco close of 4,602, the highest since May 15. TradingView printed 4,649.185 dollars as of August 24. Reuters had 4,653 dollars at 05:44 UTC, up 0.8 percent. Last week gold gained more than 5 percent after Treasury said it would at least double long-end buybacks. The dollar is still near multi-month lows. Traders watching 4,602 as the first support shelf of the extension. A break of 4,513, last week's 200-day moving average reclaim, would weaken the structure. These are observations, not instructions.
- Gold ~$4,650, highest since May 15, up from Friday's $4,602 close
- TradingView $4,649; Reuters $4,653 at 05:44 UTC
- Third weekly gain behind it; dollar still near multi-month lows
- Support shelf Friday's $4,602; a break of the $4,513 200-day weakens the reclaim
Oil Slips Toward $85.60 as Bessent Details Iran Measures
Crude is fading last week's Hormuz bid into the announcement. West Texas Intermediate is near 85.60 dollars, down from Friday's 87.06 NYMEX settlement. Yahoo showed 85.59 dollars around 08:00 UTC, down 1.69 percent. Reuters printed 85.64 dollars at 05:44 UTC. Brent is near 93.07 dollars, off about 1.4 percent after a 6.6 percent week. Bessent is due later Monday, around 18:00 UTC, to outline sanctions he has called potentially the strictest in history. Iran still holds Hormuz. The fade is profit-taking into the event, not a supply all-clear. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.
- WTI ~$85.60, off Friday's $87.06 settlement; Yahoo $85.59, Reuters $85.64
- Brent ~$93.07, down ~1.4% after a 6.6% week
- Bessent's Iran briefing is due later Monday, around 18:00 UTC
- The fade is into the event; Hormuz control has not changed
Bitcoin Holds $77,300 After Last Week's Squeeze
Digital assets did not fade with oil. Bitcoin is near 77,300 dollars, holding most of last week's roughly 22 percent jump after a Friday high near 79,400. CoinMarketCap showed 77,315.77 dollars, up 1.74 percent, with a 24-hour high of 78,036.86. Yahoo printed 77,281.70. TradingView clustered near 77,600. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about 1.92 billion dollars across five sessions through Friday. Ether is near 2,455 dollars, up from Sunday's 2,406. CoinMarketCap showed 2,454.63, up 2.83 percent. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin is a hold above 75,000 dollars, then a reclaim of Friday's 79,400 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000, then 72,000. These are technical reference points, not instructions.
- Bitcoin ~$77,300 after Friday's ~$79,400 high; CMC $77,316, 24h high $78,037
- Spot BTC ETFs ~$1.92B in five sessions through Friday
- Ether ~$2,455, up from Sunday's ~$2,406
- BTC bullish trigger: hold $75,000 then reclaim $79,400; bearish: a break of $75,000
What's Next: Bessent Today, Then Nvidia, PCE and Warsh
Monday's live event is Bessent. Canada is a fresh overlay: Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa will answer US tariffs with levies on US steel, dairy, appliances and electronics. Funds futures imply around a 40 percent chance of a hike at the September 16 FOMC. Those odds can still move on Wednesday's core PCE. Three scenarios frame the open, not a recommendation. In a patient-sanctions, soft-PCE path, the Iran measures are narrower than feared and the S&P leans toward last Wednesday's 7,707.98 close. In a max-sanctions, hot-oil path, WTI reclaims 87 and puts last Thursday's 7,641.16 low back in play. In an Nvidia-disappointment path, a guide that merely matches the 91 billion dollar run-rate sells the AI complex into Jackson Hole even if PCE is tame. Traders watching 7,707.98 as the bullish trigger for the S&P, 7,641.16 as the bearish trigger, and a break of 7,600 as invalidation of the Friday-repair tone. Docket: calendar.
- Bessent later Monday, around 18:00 UTC; PDD before the US open
- Wednesday 12:30 UTC: core PCE, then Nvidia after the close
- Friday 14:00 UTC: Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,707.98; bearish: a slide through 7,641.16
For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow figures are Friday, August 21, 2026 cash closes; E-mini futures, gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on August 24, 2026.
