Week Ahead: Warsh Speaks Friday, Nvidia and PCE First

Bookmark this one. Last week was Treasury buybacks, Walmart, and a 22 percent Bitcoin squeeze. This week is the calendar: Wednesday's core PCE and Nvidia print, then Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,674.37; overnight E-mini futures are near 7,680. Bitcoin is near 77,130 dollars. Catch up: weekly markets roundup. This is a preview of what is scheduled, not an instruction.

The Big One: Warsh's First Jackson Hole Keynote on Friday

The week pivots on Friday at 14:00 UTC. Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, 18 days before the September 15-16 FOMC. July was a 9-3 hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a hike. The minutes said "many" participants would likely need to tighten if inflation does not decline. Warsh offered no forward guidance and called the speech a blank page. Wednesday's core PCE is the last official inflation print that can still change what he says. The same stamp drops the BLS preliminary benchmark revision to March 2026 payrolls, last year a 911,000-job downward rewrite, plus the final Michigan reading. Chicago PMI prints 15 minutes earlier. Symposium runs August 27 to 29. Docket: calendar.

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Consensus versus prior. Not an OpEx week; monthly expiry was last Friday, next quad-witching September 18.

• Monday, Aug 24: Bessent speaks 18:00 UTC. Briefings flag new Iran-sanctions measures. 13-week and 26-week bill auctions around 15:30 UTC.
• Tuesday, Aug 25: RBA minutes 01:30 UTC after a hold at 4.35%. Germany Q2 GDP final 06:00 UTC, seen +0.2% QoQ matching the flash, then ifo 08:00 UTC near 87.2 after 86.6. US 13:00-14:00 UTC: Case-Shiller (~1.9% YoY after 1.6%), confidence (~90 after 90.8) and new-home sales (~620K after 628K).
• Wednesday, Aug 26: Australia CPI 01:30 UTC, headline seen about 3.2% YoY after 3.8%, trimmed mean about 3.5% after 3.6%. US dump at 12:30 UTC: core PCE +0.2% MoM / 3.3% YoY after +0.1% / 3.3%, headline +0.1% / 3.6% after -0.1% / 3.7%, spending +0.1% after +0.3%, Q2 GDP second estimate held at 1.5%, durable goods +0.5%. EIA inventories 14:30 UTC after a 4.4 million-barrel build.
• Thursday, Aug 27: Bank of Korea 01:00 UTC, hold at 2.75% or hike to 3.00%. German GfK 06:00 UTC near -29.3 after -29.6. ECB July accounts 11:30 UTC, deposit rate 2.40%. US claims 12:30 UTC, seen near 207K after 206K. Jackson Hole opens. Tokyo core CPI 23:30 UTC, seen +1.8% YoY after +1.9%.
• Friday, Aug 28: Spain flash CPI 07:00 UTC, seen about 4.2% YoY after 3.6%. Canada GDP 12:30 UTC, June seen +0.2% MoM after +0.3%. Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC, about 57.8 after 57.6. Then 14:00 UTC: Warsh, the CES payrolls benchmark, and UMich final at 51.0.

Earnings to Watch

Guidance is the mover. Street figures are the web-consensus cluster.

• PDD, Monday before the open: EPS about 18.45 dollars.
• Intuit, Tuesday after the close: EPS about 3.58 dollars on 4.27 billion of revenue. Zoom also prints.
• Nvidia, Wednesday after the close: EPS about 2.08 to 2.09 dollars, revenue about 92 billion, against company guidance of 91 billion plus or minus 2 percent. Data-center revenue, 75 percent gross margin, and Q3 guidance set the semiconductor complex. Options have priced roughly a 6 percent move.
• Salesforce and CrowdStrike, Wednesday after the close: Salesforce EPS about 3.27 dollars on 11.3 billion of revenue; CrowdStrike about 0.29 dollars on 1.44 billion. Synopsys and HP too.
• Thursday: Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Best Buy before the open. Marvell after the close, EPS about 0.93 dollars on 2.71 billion of revenue.

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 77,130 dollars (TradingView 77,064, CoinMarketCap 77,135 to 77,182), holding most of last week's squeeze after a Friday high near 79,400. The live tape is still Jackson Hole and PCE. Bitcoin Asia 2026 opens in Hong Kong on Thursday. BNB Chain activates the Pasteur hard fork on Tuesday. Scheduled supply: Worldcoin around Monday (~11-12 million dollars), Humanity's H token Tuesday (~19 million dollars, about 15 percent of market cap), and GateToken Wednesday (~52 million dollars). Live levels: homepage.

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a soft-PCE, patient-Warsh path, core prints at or below 0.1 percent on the month and Warsh looks through energy, so the S&P leans toward last Wednesday's 7,707.98 close. In a hot-PCE, hawkish-Hole path, core at 0.3 percent or hotter rebuilds September hike odds and puts last Thursday's 7,641.16 low back in play. In an Nvidia-disappointment path, a guide that merely matches the 91 billion dollar run-rate sells the AI complex into Jackson Hole even if PCE is tame. Traders watching 7,707.98 as the bullish trigger for the S&P, 7,641.16 as the bearish trigger, and a break of 7,600 as invalidation of the Friday-repair tone. For Bitcoin, a reclaim of 79,400 dollars is the bullish trigger; a slip through 75,000, then 72,000, is the bearish one. These are observations, not instructions.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. S&P cash is Friday, August 21, 2026's close; E-mini futures and Bitcoin are live as of 06:00 UTC on August 24, 2026. Scenarios describe what the calendar is watching, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.