The Week War Risk Faded and Stocks Hit New Records

The week of June 8 to 14, 2026 was a study in how fast a market mood can turn. Seven days that opened under the shadow of a Middle East war and a hot inflation print closed with US equities back at record highs, oil bleeding out its war premium, and the largest stock-market debut in history printing on the Nasdaq floor. Traditional markets (the S&P 500, the Dow, gold, and oil) are closed this weekend and reopen Monday, so the levels below are Friday's June 12 closing and settlement prices, clearly labeled. Bitcoin and ether trade around the clock, so those are live as of Sunday morning. Here is the full week in review and what is on the radar for the days ahead.

Weekly Performance: A Quiet Grind Back to Records

For all the drama in the headlines, the index moves were measured. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,431.46, up about 0.65 percent on the week and at a fresh record high, recovering all of the prior week's chip-driven rout, per TheStreet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 51,202.26, up roughly 0.66 percent on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite finished at 25,888.84, up about 0.70 percent as the semiconductor complex clawed back its losses. The contrast with the prior Friday could not be sharper: on June 5 the S&P had fallen 2.64 percent to 7,383.74 and the Nasdaq had cratered 4.18 percent as a semiconductor slide wiped roughly $1 trillion off the market, per TheStreet. This week was the mirror image: a steady, selective recovery rather than a panic.

Biggest Mover: SpaceX Lands the Largest IPO in History

The defining event of the week was SpaceX's stock-market debut. Trading under the ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq, the rocket and satellite giant raised roughly $75 billion in the largest initial public offering ever, then closed its first session up 19 percent at $160.95, settling on a valuation near $1.77 trillion, per CNBC. The pop made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire on paper and, more importantly for markets, reopened the mega-cap IPO window that had been frozen for years. The enthusiasm spilled into the wider space complex: Rocket Lab will join the Nasdaq-100 effective June 22, a milestone that pushed the launch stock higher on index-inclusion buying, per Rocket Lab. We covered the debut in detail in our June 12 morning analysis.

Macro and Geopolitics: Inflation Shock Meets an Oil Reprieve

The week's two big macro forces pulled in opposite directions. On Wednesday, the May Consumer Price Index came in at 4.2 percent year over year, the hottest annual pace in three years, driven heavily by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, per CNBC. That print buried any remaining hope of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, with markets now pricing the Fed to hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in June and roughly a 70 percent chance of at least one hike by year-end, per Benzinga. The offsetting relief came from crude. WTI fell about 3.2 percent on Friday to settle near $84.88, an eight-week low, capping a weekly drop of roughly 8 percent as reports of a US-Iran peace framework that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz drained the war premium, per CNBC. Cheaper oil points to softer headline inflation ahead, which helped equities look past the CPI shock.

Crypto: Bitcoin Steadies, Ether Lags

After two punishing weeks, crypto found a floor. Bitcoin steadied near $64,000 as of Sunday morning, up roughly 5 percent from a week ago when it was testing oversold lows near $61,000, as the improving risk mood from the SpaceX listing and easing Middle East tensions lifted sentiment. Ether held near $1,677, broadly flat week over week and once again the laggard of the majors, still needing to reclaim $1,800 and then $2,000 to credibly rejoin the recovery. The dispersion is classic early-bounce behavior, with the altcoins (XRP and Solana led the tape on Friday) firmer than the large caps, per MEXC News. The structural tell to watch remains spot-ETF flows: bitcoin funds were still bleeding even as the price recovered, and a durable turn likely needs that redemption wave to reverse.

Week Ahead: What to Watch

• US-Iran peace text (next few days): a signed framework reopening Hormuz would keep oil pinned in the mid-$80s; a breakdown puts $90-plus back in play and rekindles the inflation scare.
• SPCX's second week: how SpaceX trades after the debut pop will set the tone for the reopening IPO pipeline and the broader space complex.
• Rocket Lab Nasdaq-100 entry (June 22): index inclusion brings forced passive buying, so watch for pre-positioning into the rebalance.
• Fed messaging: with a June hold near-certain and hike odds rising into year-end, any official commentary on the 4.2 percent CPI will move rate-sensitive sectors.
• Crypto ETF flows: traders watching for a reversal of the bitcoin outflow streak as the signal that the bounce has real legs.

Disclaimer: This is market commentary for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. ThriveInMarkets is a market commentary publisher, not a licensed investment adviser. Always do your own research.