Oil fell about 7 percent as Iran diplomacy talks cooled the war premium today. As flagged in this morning's analysis, as of 20:00 UTC those S&P 500 and Nasdaq prints remain intraday, with US cash still open until 16:00 New York (21:00 UTC). The cash session extended overnight's drop through this morning's 100.21 bearish reference.
The Close: Indexes Fade After Taking the Overnight Repair
The S&P 500 last printed about 7,572, down 0.10 percent from Friday's 7,580.07 (Yahoo Finance 7,572.14 at 19:31 UTC). Range 7,563.71 to 7,662.23. This morning's bullish reclaim at Friday's 7,637.48 was taken on the high at 7,662.23. The overnight repair did not hold. Cash faded back through Friday's close. The morning bearish reference at 7,527.56 was not taken. The Nasdaq Composite last printed about 25,327, down 0.43 percent from Friday's 25,437.00. Range 25,292 to 25,799. The Dow last printed about 52,098, up 0.63 percent. Breadth stayed positive, 1,748 to 1,171, with 11 of 16 sectors higher (MetaCap). Energy lagged as crude unwound. The VIX last printed about 20.53, labeled intraday. ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.7 this morning flagged; prices paid fell to 75.2 against about 77.2 seen (Reuters, TheStreet). The hot-prices-paid scenario did not play. Oracle sat about 6 to 7 percent lower in midday trade after filing to sell 10 billion dollars of stock and 10 billion dollars of bonds (CNBC, Motley Fool). S&P bullish trigger: a hold through 7,662.23. The S&P later slipped to a new session low near 7,559 (Yahoo, 19:46 UTC). Bearish trigger: Friday's 7,527.56.
- S&P about 7,572 (-0.10%), labeled intraday; Nasdaq about 25,327 (-0.43%); Dow about 52,098 (+0.63%)
- Morning bullish 7,637.48 taken (high 7,662.23), then faded; 7,527.56 not taken
- ISM 55.5 against 54.7 seen; prices paid 75.2
- S&P bullish trigger: hold 7,662.23; bearish: Friday's 7,527.56 (late low near 7,559)
Story of the Day: Oil Extends the Diplomacy Drop Through 100
West Texas Intermediate last printed about 96.52 dollars (Yahoo Finance as of 19:21 UTC November 2), down 7.3 percent from Friday's 104.12 settle and through this morning's about 100.69. Oilprice.com sat at 96.30. Session range 95.15 to 102.75. The high at 102.75 matches this morning's 102.72, then crude broke the morning bearish level at 100.21 on the way to 95.15. Brent last printed about 105.02 dollars. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader granted the government authorities over peace talks (Oilprice.com). Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Qatar-mediated proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in as little as two days if Washington meets Tehran's conditions. Reuters said a draft proposal is circulating. That extends the Trump-wants-more-time preview this morning used. The hourly chart below covers the last 48 hours on Yahoo Finance.
Oil bullish trigger: a reclaim of 100.21, then the session high at 102.75. Bearish trigger: a slip through the session low at 95.15. None of this is a recommendation.
- WTI about $96.52 against Friday settle $104.12 (about -7.3%) and this morning about $100.69
- Morning bearish $100.21 taken (low $95.15); high $102.75
- Oil bullish trigger: reclaim $100.21 then $102.75; bearish: $95.15
Gold Holds the Bounce Off a One-Year Low
Spot gold last printed about 3,953 dollars (TradingView 3,953.25 as of November 2). Kitco sat at 3,949.70 at 14:30 ET, range 3,879.40 to 3,971.00. This morning last printed about 3,916. The morning bullish hold at 3,916 was taken; 4,000 was not. Against Friday's close of 3,875.65, the 52-week low, the bounce is about 2 percent. Gold bullish trigger: a hold through 3,953, then 4,000. Bearish trigger: a slip through the Kitco session low at 3,879, then Friday's 3,875.65.
- Gold about $3,953 (TradingView) against this morning about $3,916; Kitco range $3,879 to $3,971
- About +2% vs Friday's 52-week low close $3,875.65; morning $3,916 taken, $4,000 not
- Gold bullish trigger: hold $3,953 then $4,000; bearish: $3,879 then $3,875.65
Crypto Check: Bitcoin Slips Under 77,983
Bitcoin last printed about 76,900 dollars (TradingView). Yahoo Finance sat at 76,817 at 19:31 UTC. This morning last printed about 78,261. Price slipped through this morning's bullish hold at Sunday's Coinbase print of 77,983. Price later slipped to about 76,630 (Coinbase, 19:47 UTC), still above Friday's low near 76,300, which was not taken. Ether last printed about 2,249 dollars (TradingView 2,249.4). Prints labeled intraday; crypto's daily candle closes at 00:00 UTC. Bitcoin bullish trigger: a reclaim of 77,983, then this morning's 78,261. Bearish trigger: a slip through Friday's low near 76,300.
- Bitcoin about $76,900 against this morning about $78,261; Sunday $77,983 did not hold
- Ether about $2,249; prints labeled intraday
- Bitcoin bullish trigger: reclaim $77,983 then $78,261; bearish: Friday's low near $76,300
After-Hours and Overnight Watch
US cash still has the closing auction as of 20:00 UTC, with the cash close at 21:00 UTC. Apple and Palantir report at 21:00 UTC. Apple's print is the first Monday report since 2015 and the first call for chief executive John Ternus; consensus sits about 1.98 dollars a share and about 113 billion dollars of revenue (Morningstar, Reuters). Tuesday: the RBA at 03:30 UTC, US midterms, and AMD after the close. Docket: the calendar and the week ahead. Scenarios to watch: a closing auction that leaves the S&P near Friday's close into Apple, or a further oil fade if the Hormuz proposal fails to hold overnight.
- Cash still open until 21:00 UTC; Apple and Palantir at 21:00 UTC
- Apple seen about $1.98 and about $113 billion of revenue
- Tuesday: RBA at 03:30 UTC, US midterms, AMD after the close
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index prints are intraday as of 20:00 UTC Monday, November 2, 2026.