China Factory Beat Steadies Futures Near Records

Wall Street comes into Tuesday riding a powerful relief rally. Monday delivered a broad, tech-led rebound that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close above 52,000 for the first time, the kind of session that flipped last week's grim mood on its head. Overnight, S&P 500 futures held near 7,455 and a better-than-expected China factory survey added a steadying hand, while the reported US-Iran truce kept the geopolitical fear premium contained. The catch is timing: this rebound runs straight into a front-loaded data week capped by a pulled-forward jobs report. For the full schedule, see our week ahead. Here is where things stand at the European open.

Wall Street's Records Set the Tone

The backdrop has changed quickly. After a brutal stretch that wiped roughly $1.4 trillion off the artificial-intelligence trade, buyers came charging back on Monday. The Dow closed at 52,182.74, up 0.59 percent and a record above 52,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 rose 1.18 percent to 7,440.43 and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.07 percent to 25,820.14, per TheStreet. Alphabet jumped about 5 percent on its first day as a Dow component, replacing Verizon, and Tesla soared 8.5 percent. Overnight, S&P 500 E-mini futures held near 7,455, signalling that the market is trying to consolidate the gains rather than give them straight back.

The AI Trade Roars Back

The rebound was about repairing confidence in the AI build-out, the exact theme that cracked last week. The chip and megacap names that were punished in the selloff led the bounce: Amazon climbed 3.2 percent, Meta added 2.2 percent, and Nvidia gained 1.3 percent. Investors spent the session reassessing whether last week's $1.4 trillion repricing was an overshoot, and the breadth of the move, with the Nasdaq more than doubling the Dow's percentage gain, suggests dip buyers stepped back into growth rather than rotating defensively. The question now is durability. A one-day snapback after a savage week is common, so the tell will be whether the AI complex can hold these gains through a data-heavy stretch rather than fade them.

China Factory Data Beats, Oil Holds Above $70

The morning's fresh catalyst came from Beijing. China's official NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0, beating the 50.1 forecast and marking a third straight month of expansion, per Global Times. The detail was encouraging: output accelerated to 51.4, new orders returned to expansion at 51.2, and the high-tech manufacturing sub-index climbed to 53.5 on AI-linked export strength. That is a constructive read for global growth and for commodities tied to Chinese demand. WTI crude held back above $70 after Monday's 1.7 percent bounce, recovering from last week's four-month low as the Mideast truce steadied the supply outlook without reigniting a fear-driven spike. Gold sat little changed near $4,027, with the weekend safe-haven bid still unwound on the risk-on tape.

Crypto Stays Fragile as Bitcoin Slips Below $60K

Crypto did not join the equity party with the same conviction. Bitcoin traded near $59,400, up about 0.6 percent over 24 hours but slipping back below the $60,000 level it briefly reclaimed on Monday, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index still mired in extreme fear after last week's drop below $58,000, its lowest since September 2024. The institutional backdrop stays heavy: spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled billions over the past month, and the Fed's hawkish June pivot continues to support the dollar and Treasury yields, both headwinds for non-yielding assets. Ethereum hovered near $1,590, still pressured by the Ethereum Foundation's restructuring that cut about 20 percent of staff, per MEXC. The $60,000 round number is the near-term pivot and $58,000 the key reference zone buyers defended last week; a daily close back above $60,000 would be the first sign the panic is stabilising.

The Week Ahead: Jobs Report Thursday

The rally now has to survive a compressed, high-stakes data calendar. Because US markets close Friday July 3 for the observed Independence Day holiday, the June jobs report is pulled forward to Thursday July 2 at 12:30 UTC. It is the first major labor read since Chair Warsh's June 17 FOMC stripped the Fed's cutting bias and left markets pricing zero rate cuts for 2026, and consensus looks for roughly 130,000 to 160,000 payrolls with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. Before that, Wednesday brings a dense block: the Eurozone flash CPI, US ADP private payrolls, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, whose prices-paid sub-index feeds straight into the inflation narrative. With Friday dark for US markets, any surprise risks an outsized, gap-prone move into thin holiday liquidity.

Scenarios to Watch Tuesday

The session hinges on whether buyers defend Monday's gains and whether the AI rebound holds before Thursday's main event. A consolidation that keeps the S&P above the 7,400 area, with Monday's 7,440.43 close as the structural reference, would confirm the rebound is more than a one-day snapback and put last week's highs back in focus as the next bullish trigger. A fade back below 7,400 with renewed weakness in chip stocks would be the bearish trigger, suggesting the rally was a relief bounce that sellers are using to lighten up. For crypto, the $58,000 to $60,000 band remains the structure to watch. Traders watching the macro picture will key on whether the strength survives contact with Wednesday's ISM and ADP data, the warm-up acts before the jobs report. Read what the tape is showing, not what it owes you: this is a confirmed rebound that still has to prove it can hold through the data.

It is a constructive but fragile open: records on the board, a China factory beat for support, and a wounded AI trade trying to prove its recovery is real, all into a compressed data week. Bookmark this page and check our economic calendar for the live schedule into Thursday's jobs report.