S&P Holds Record 7,799 as Friday Retail Sales Land

The inflation week is not quite finished. As previewed in yesterday's morning analysis and mapped in the week-ahead note, Thursday's July Producer Price Index landed softer than forecast and let the S&P 500 close at a record 7,798.99, its first finish above 7,800. Overnight futures are little changed. Gold is giving back the week's surge. July retail sales at 08:30 Eastern and the preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment survey at 10:00 Eastern close the data run. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction to act on any asset.

The Setup: Futures Flat After a Record Close

Cash markets are shut at this hour, so treat the S&P reference as Thursday's close plus a flat futures bid. The S&P 500 rose 50.49 points, or 0.65 percent, to 7,798.99, topping last Friday's 7,757.64 record and printing an intraday high of 7,816.70. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.81 percent to 26,803.03. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.13 percent to 53,839.99, about 70 points, still on course for a weekly loss. E-mini S&P 500 futures are little changed overnight near 7,823. Seven of eleven S&P sectors finished green, led by communication services, real estate and technology. Tesla jumped about 3.8 percent and Micron about 4.2 percent. Cisco slumped roughly 8.8 percent after projecting a slowdown in AI data-center sales, which capped the Dow.

Story of the Day: July Retail Sales Close the Inflation Week

The number that frames Friday drops at 08:30 Eastern. Economists look for headline July retail sales to rise about 0.1 percent after June's 0.2 percent gain, with core sales excluding autos seen up about 0.2 percent after a 0.2 percent drop. At 10:00 Eastern the preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected near 54.5, a touch below July's final 55.2. Together they test whether households are still spending after a July jobs report that showed a 23,000 payroll contraction. A firm print would argue the consumer can carry the expansion as the labour market cools. A miss would revive the stall debate under this week's record grind. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

The PPI Recap: Wholesale Prices Unchanged

Thursday's wholesale report did the heavy lifting for the record close. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July, against a consensus near plus 0.2 percent. On a 12-month basis the index rose 4.7 percent. Final demand goods fell 0.7 percent, led by a 3.1 percent drop in energy and a 5.7 percent slide in gasoline. Services rose 0.2 percent. Core PPI excluding food and energy rose about 0.2 percent, softer than the 0.3 percent look-ahead. Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8 rose to 209,000 from 200,000, above the 202,000 forecast. Funds futures now price roughly a 35 percent chance of a September hike, down from about 55 percent a week earlier. The 10-year yield eased toward 4.65 percent.

Gold Books a Weekly Loss, Crude Steadies

Commodities are no longer marching with the equity tape. Spot gold is near 4,340 dollars this morning, down about 0.2 percent and headed for a weekly loss after Thursday's reversal from a 4,449 dollar high, the strongest print since June 5. The metal had gained roughly 9 percent into that peak on the tame CPI and the fading hike narrative. Profit-taking around the 4,400 to 4,500 area did the rest. Crude is steadier overnight: West Texas Intermediate is near 82.15 dollars, up about 1.1 percent from Thursday's 81.25 settlement after a 1.6 percent drop on a large US inventory build. Brent settled Thursday near 87.07 dollars. Hormuz remains the geopolitical wildcard after Washington said it could keep a naval blockade on Iran in place. For now the oil bid is a bounce, which keeps the inflation tape leaning cooler into the retail-sales print.

Crypto Holds Quiet After Goldman's NEOS Deal

Digital assets shrugged off the soft PPI the same way they shrugged off Wednesday's CPI. Bitcoin is near 62,900 dollars, down from Thursday's 63,800 area and still boxed under 64,000. Ether holds near 1,874 dollars. The institutional tape is busier than the price tape. Goldman Sachs's agreement to buy NEOS for up to 2.25 billion dollars, picking up a roughly 1.1 billion dollar Bitcoin covered-call fund, remains the week's structural story. Fidelity's request to let its Ethereum fund stake up to 100 percent of holdings is still on the desk. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin: a clean reclaim of 64,000 dollars. Bearish trigger: a slip through this week's 62,800 shelf. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: Sentiment and the Weekend

Friday is a data day, not an earnings day. Applied Materials had already cleared the bar Thursday and no large-cap reports are due before the open. Three things are worth watching: whether July retail sales confirm that households are still spending; whether the S&P can hold its new 7,798.99 close, with 7,816.70 the next overhead reference; and how Michigan sentiment reads against a cooler labour market. Bullish trigger for the S&P: a clean push through 7,816.70. Bearish trigger: a slide back through last Friday's 7,757.64 former record. Invalidation of the calm tone: a break of this week's 7,728 area.

For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, plus per-asset AI takes, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset; it is market commentary describing what the data and the tape are showing.