RBA Cash Rate Hits 4.60%, Highest Level Since 2011

As flagged in Monday's evening review, the S&P 500 closed 7,683.69, WTI last printed about 93.02 dollars, gold about 4,116 dollars, and Bitcoin about 83,400 dollars. Overnight the cash tape is shut. The RBA has lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60 percent, a 15-year high. Overnight E-mini December futures are near 7,736. WTI is near 94.05 dollars. Spot gold last printed about 4,145 dollars. Bitcoin is near 83,940 dollars. US cash opens 13:30 UTC. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction. Docket: week ahead.

The Setup: Overnight ES Near 7,736

The S&P 500's last cash print remains Monday's 7,683.69, down 0.8 percent (Associated Press, CNBC, GuruFocus). Range 7,666.60 to 7,724.15, a break of Friday's 7,693.08 low. The August 13 record at 7,816.70 remains the cash marker. The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,820.38 (-0.9%). The Dow closed 51,481.51 (-0.7%). E-mini December futures are near 7,736, labeled overnight futures (Investing.com 7,736.75 from a 7,746.75 settlement; MarketWatch 7,736.25). Overnight range about 7,725 to 7,751. The 10-year is near 5.25 percent after a 5.27 percent high, the highest since 2007. Traders watching 7,683.69 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,683.69 toward Friday's 7,743.41. Bearish trigger: a slide through Monday's 7,666.60 low, then 7,650.50.

Story of the Day: RBA Lifts Cash Rate to 4.60%

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60 percent, the highest since late 2011 and the fourth hike of 2026 (RBA, Reuters, CNBC). The board voted unanimously. It said inflation remains too high and that upside risks flagged in August are materialising: broader Middle East conflict, energy prices above the August forecasts, and AI-related demand lifting prices of technology goods. The Board said it will increase the cash rate further if needed. The Australian dollar was little changed near 70.14 US cents. November hike odds sit around 43 percent (Straits Times). July inflation stood at 3.5 percent, above the 2 to 3 percent band.

Oil Holds Near $94 as Talks Stay Stalled

West Texas Intermediate November futures last printed about 94.05 dollars (FT 94.05 at 07:49 BST, up 1.57 percent from Monday's 92.60 settlement; MarketWatch 94.34). Overnight range 93.00 to 94.74. Brent is near 107.10 dollars (FT). Reuters said crude rose for a second session as Middle East supply concern outweighed recovering regional exports. Mediators are working an amended version of last week's seven-day Hormuz proposal after Trump rejected the original plan. Traders watching 94.05 dollars as the live November WTI reference. A hold through Monday's 92.60 toward Thursday's 96.78 high would restore more of last week's premium. A slip back through 92.60 would put the fade back on.

Asia: Nikkei Drops About 1.2%

The Nikkei 225 last printed about 65,115, down 1.2 percent (Associated Press 65,114.64). The Kospi last printed about 6,824 to 6,848, down about 0.6 to 1.0 percent. The Hang Seng last printed about 24,516 to 24,564, down about 0.3 to 0.5 percent. Hong Kong-traded Shein dropped about 11.7 percent after adjusted net profit fell 67 percent from a year earlier. The Shanghai Composite last printed about 3,826.51, up 0.1 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 last printed about 8,686, little changed after the RBA print. Catch up: calendar.

Crypto Check: Bitcoin Near $83,940

Bitcoin is near 83,940 dollars (TradingView 83,936). CoinMarketCap's Tuesday session ran about 83,890 to 84,008, a bounce from Monday evening's about 83,400 and a fade from Sunday's about 84,835. That still holds the 82,000 reference. Ether is near 2,712 dollars (TradingView 2,712.1). Live levels: homepage. BTC bullish trigger: a hold of 83,940 dollars, then Sunday's 84,835. Bearish trigger: a slip through 82,000, then 80,000.

What's Next: JOLTS, MongoDB, Then PCE

US cash opens at 13:30 UTC. JOLTS job openings print later (consensus around 7.2 million versus 7.3 million prior). MongoDB holds its investor day after Monday's about 25 percent slide. Wednesday is August PCE at 12:30 UTC and Micron after the close. Thursday is ISM and Nike. Friday is payrolls. China shuts Thursday. Full docket: week ahead. Three scenarios frame the session, not a recommendation. In a contained-yields path, the 10-year holds 5.25 percent into JOLTS and ES leans on 7,683.69. In a scare path, a fresh Hormuz headline would push Brent through 110 and test Monday's 7,666.60 low. In a repair path, a constructive talks headline would fade crude back through 92.60 and give gold a route through 4,200. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,683.69 toward 7,743.41. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,666.60, then 7,650.50.

For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Monday, September 28, 2026; gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on September 29, 2026.