Oil Jumps After US Strikes Iranian Mine Launchers

Cash week opens on two leftover tapes. Overnight E-mini futures sit near 7,710, a tick under Friday's 7,711.76 close, as Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote keeps September hike odds near 62 percent. The live mover is oil. West Texas Intermediate is near 85.70 dollars after Sunday US strikes on Iranian launchers at Larak Island, the first publicly acknowledged American hits since late July. Spot gold is near 4,441 dollars. Bitcoin holds near 78,190 dollars. Catch up: week-ahead note and the weekend recap. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.

The Setup: Futures Hold Friday's Cash Close

The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,711.76, down 0.25 percent on the day and up 0.49 percent on the week from the prior Friday's 7,674.37. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,402.42, down 0.52 percent Friday after Nvidia gave back about 4.6 percent. The Dow closed at 53,559.99, little changed. E-mini S&P 500 futures are near 7,710 as of about 08:00 UTC, labeled here as overnight futures (WSJ 7,709.25 at 05:29 UTC; Barchart 7,711.00; Investing.com 7,710 to 7,711). Bloomberg had S&P futures off about 0.2 percent in the Tokyo afternoon. UK cash is shut for the summer bank holiday. MSCI indices rebalance at Monday's close. US cash is still closed.

Story of the Day: Hormuz Fighting Restarts, Oil Jumps

The corridor premium is back in the tape. US Central Command said American forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps units were observed preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, the first publicly acknowledged US strike on Iran since late July. Iran's Guards said the attack killed and wounded several people and vowed a response. CBS and Indian Express report Tehran then fired on US bases in Jordan.

West Texas Intermediate is near 85.70 dollars (Bloomberg 85.72, up 2.8 percent; MarketWatch 85.71; WSJ 85.75), up from Friday's 83.40 settlement. Brent is near 90.61 dollars, back above 90. Asia opened cautious: MSCI's regional gauge fell as much as 1.1 percent before settling about 0.3 percent lower. Traders watching Friday's 83.40 settlement as the near-term reference. A slip back through that print would fade the strike premium. A hold above last week's 80.65 session low keeps the rebound structure intact. These are observations, not instructions.

Warsh's Hike Bets Keep Gold Under Pressure

Oil is the overnight headline. The rate tape is the leftover. Warsh told Jackson Hole the 2 percent PCE objective is "firm" and "fixed" and that the Fed will "have work to do" if inflation is not moving there clearly and at sufficient speed. Bloomberg swaps now assign about a 62 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike on September 16, up from about 34 percent before the speech. CME FedWatch sat near 58 to 60 percent into the weekend. The 2-year Treasury yield, which jumped to 4.348 percent Friday, slipped about two basis points to 4.33 percent in Monday dealing. The 10-year holds near 4.71 percent.

Spot gold is near 4,441 dollars (TradingView 4,440.545 as of August 31; Bloomberg 4,436.64; Investing.com 4,442.47, range about 4,397 to 4,472). That extends Friday's roughly 3 percent drop from a three-month high near 4,650 and a break of the 4,600 shelf. Traders watching 4,400 as the first support shelf. A break of the 4,396 session low would weaken the August reclaim. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

Crypto: Bitcoin Holds $78,000 After Friday's Fade

Digital assets spent the weekend digesting Warsh, not the Hormuz headline. Bitcoin is near 78,190 dollars (TradingView 78,191; Bloomberg 78,000.81; Investing.com 78,162.9), little changed from the 06:00 UTC week-ahead print near 78,000 and well off Friday's CoinDesk high of 81,455. Spot bitcoin ETFs posted a 201.81 million dollar Friday outflow. Ether is near 2,438 dollars (TradingView 2,437.9; Bloomberg 2,436.09). Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin remains a reclaim of 80,000 dollars, then Friday's 81,200 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: German CPI Today, Payrolls Friday

Monday's live print is German flash CPI at 12:00 UTC, seen near 3.0 percent year over year after July's 2.8 percent. China NBS manufacturing PMI already printed 49.8 at 01:30 UTC, a second contraction month. Three scenarios frame the US open, not a recommendation. In a contained-Hormuz path, oil holds the $85 area without a second-day spike and cash leans on Friday's 7,711.76. In a hot-oil path, a push through $86 into the $89 handle, or confirmed damage at Kharg, would add an inflation impulse on top of Warsh and test last Wednesday's 7,707.98. In a hike-odds-fade path, German CPI undershoots and swaps ease, putting Thursday's 7,730.99 back in view. Traders watching 7,711.76 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push through 7,730.99 toward 7,798.99. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,707.98, then 7,657.41. Invalidation of last week's repair: a break of 7,600.

The week still pivots on Friday's August payrolls at 12:30 UTC, the last hard labor print before the September 15-16 FOMC, plus Broadcom after Wednesday's close. Docket: week-ahead note. Calendar: calendar.

For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow figures are Friday, August 28, 2026 cash closes; E-mini futures, gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on August 31, 2026. Scenarios describe what the tape is watching, not instructions.