Warsh Reprices September as Nvidia's Rally Unwinds

The week of August 24 to 30, 2026 was Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole, Nvidia's 70 percent fiscal 2028 guide, and a 3 percent Friday gold slide. The S&P 500 still closed Friday at 7,711.76, up 0.49 percent on the week. This recap is published on a Sunday, when traditional markets are closed. Stock, gold and oil figures are Friday's closes (August 28) and reopen Monday. Bitcoin and Ether are live Sunday levels. See Saturday's weekly markets roundup. This is not a recommendation.

Weekly Scorecard: A Friday Fade Could Not Undo the Week

Equities spent the week waiting on Nvidia, July PCE, and Warsh. Monday's close at 7,652.86, mapped in the August 24 morning analysis, was the week's low. Thursday did the index work: Nvidia's guide and a software burst carried cash to 7,730.99. Friday gave some of it back. At Friday's cash close the S&P 500 stood at 7,711.76, down 0.2 percent on the day and up 0.49 percent on the week from the prior Friday's 7,674.37 (Associated Press wrap; Reuters week +0.49%; FRED and YCharts 7,711.76). The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,402.42, up 0.85 percent on the week after a 0.5 percent Friday fade. The Dow closed at 53,559.99, up 0.53 percent on the week. The Russell 2000 fell 1.4 percent Friday to 2,972.37. Those equity figures are Friday closes. US cash markets are shut until Monday.

Biggest Movers of the Week

No print captured the week's architecture like Nvidia's call. Fiscal second-quarter revenue was 96.22 billion dollars versus about 92.2 billion expected, up 106 percent. The reversal came when CFO Colette Kress said the company expects about 70 percent revenue growth in fiscal 2028, against a Street cluster near 45 percent, and held third-quarter revenue at 108 billion dollars, plus or minus 2 percent. Thursday, as scored in the August 27 evening review, shares jumped about 9 percent to near 228 dollars. Friday they gave back about 4.6 percent. Marvell dropped about 10 percent after a beat because the gross-margin guide sat under consensus.

Software answered the other question. Salesforce reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of 11.35 billion dollars and adjusted EPS of 5.90 dollars versus about 3.27 expected, helped by a 2.6 billion dollar mark-to-market gain on Anthropic. Shares closed Thursday at 252.05 dollars, up 22.58 percent. CrowdStrike printed record net new ARR of 333 million and jumped about 20 percent. The other side of the index was name-specific. Dick's Sporting Goods dropped 30.68 percent to 124.31 dollars on Tuesday after cutting full-year adjusted EPS. Friday, PayPal fell about 12.4 percent after Stripe and Advent International walked away from a roughly 53 billion dollar approach. We flagged Dick's in the August 26 morning analysis.

Crypto: The $81,455 Tag Did Not Stick

Digital assets converted last week's squeeze into an institutional flow story, then gave the high back when Warsh spoke. Bitcoin is near 78,150 dollars live on Sunday (TradingView 78,147; CoinMarketCap 78,114), up about 2.5 percent from last Sunday's 76,210 area after a CoinDesk Friday high of 81,455, the highest since May 15. Ether holds near 2,457 dollars live (TradingView 2,457.4), up about 2.1 percent from last Sunday's 2,406 print. Those are 24/7 prints as of 09:04 UTC. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

US spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed about 2.8 billion dollars across eight sessions into Thursday. BlackRock's IBIT did most of the work, and bitcoin ETF assets crossed 100 billion dollars. Friday broke it with a 201.81 million dollar net outflow as hike odds jumped. On Solana, validators passed SGP-0002 with 67.001 percent support, doubling annual disinflation from 15 percent to 30 percent. Solana traded above 100 dollars into Friday. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin is a reclaim of 80,000 dollars, then Friday's 81,200 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are reference points, not instructions.

Macro and Geopolitics: Warsh, Gold, and a Hormuz Fade

Friday was the microphone. Warsh told Jackson Hole the Fed will "have work to do" if inflation is not moving to 2 percent "clearly and at sufficient speed." He called the 2 percent PCE objective "firm" and "fixed." Financial conditions, he said, do not look restrictive. CME FedWatch took September hike odds from about 35 percent to about 58 percent. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.348 percent, its biggest one-day rise since March. We mapped the speech in the August 28 morning analysis and the print in the evening review. Wednesday's July PCE had already set the bar: headline 3.7 percent year over year against 3.6 expected; core matched 3.3 percent.

Spot gold closed Friday at 4,455 dollars (Investing.com 4,455.15; ADVFN 4,455.20), down about 3.2 percent on the week from the prior Friday's 4,602 Kitco close, after a three-month high near 4,650 and a 3 percent Friday drop that broke the 4,600 shelf. West Texas Intermediate settled Friday at 83.40 dollars (MarketWatch settlement 83.40), down about 4.2 percent on the week from 87.06, as Iran and Oman mapped a temporary Hormuz corridor. Gold and oil figures are Friday closes. Those markets reopen Monday.

The Week Ahead: Payrolls, Broadcom and the Labor Clock

Jackson Hole is over. Next week is the labor market and the last large-cap semiconductor prints of the season. US cash markets reopen Monday. These are scenarios for next week, not instructions to act on any asset:

• Tuesday, September 1: ISM manufacturing (consensus cluster near 55.1 to 55.3 against July's 55.6) and JOLTS (about 7.4 million openings). Dell and Palo Alto Networks report around this window.
• Wednesday, September 2: ADP employment (Wall Street Journal survey +45,000) and the Fed Beige Book. Broadcom and Snowflake are the remaining mega-cap tests of the AI multiple.
• Friday, September 4, 12:30 UTC: August nonfarm payrolls. The Journal survey clusters near a 50,000 gain after July's 23,000-job loss, with a wider street range of about 45,000 to 60,000. Unemployment is seen near 4.1 to 4.2 percent.
• Policy clocks: the FOMC is still September 15 to 16. The Clarity Act remains a mid-September procedural vote. Hormuz corridor talks stay the oil wildcard above 80 dollars.

In a soft-labor path, payrolls miss and hike odds fade, putting Thursday's 7,730.99 back in view. In a hold-the-line path, a 50,000 print and a clean Broadcom guide let the S&P lean on Friday's 7,711.76. In a hot-labor path, a beat locks September hike odds and tests last Wednesday's 7,707.98. Traders watching 7,711.76 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push back through Thursday's 7,730.99 toward 7,798.99. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,707.98, then 7,657.41. Invalidation of this week's repair: a break of 7,600. These are observations of the price structure, not instructions. Docket: week-ahead note. Calendar: calendar.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Equity, gold and WTI figures are Friday closes for August 28, 2026 and reopen Monday. Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 09:04 UTC on August 30, 2026. Levels cited are observations of what the market is watching, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.