Monday opens on oil, not cash. US equities are shut for Labor Day. Overnight E-mini futures sit near 7,721, a modest print above Friday's 7,718.60 cash close, as West Texas Intermediate holds the 92 dollar handle after weekend tanker strikes. Spot gold slips through 4,400 dollars. Bitcoin holds near 79,499 dollars. Catch up: the weekend recap and the week-ahead note. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.
The Setup: Labor Day Shuts Cash, Overnight ES Holds 7,721
The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,718.60, down 0.38 percent on the day and up 0.09 percent on the week from the prior Friday's 7,711.76. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,506.99. The Dow closed at 53,414.25. Those are Friday, September 4 closes. US cash is shut today and reopens Tuesday.
E-mini S&P 500 futures are near 7,721 as of about 08:00 UTC, labeled here as overnight futures (Barchart ESU26 7,721.25; MarketWatch 7,719.25; eSignal 7,720.25). That is a few points above Friday's cash close and in line with Friday's 7,722.00 ES settlement. Volume is thin, as it always is on a US holiday. Europe still prints. Crypto, gold and oil run around the clock.
- S&P Friday close 7,718.60; overnight ES futures ~7,721
- Nasdaq closed 26,506.99; Dow closed 53,414.25
- US cash is shut for Labor Day and reopens Tuesday
- Figures above are Friday close plus overnight futures
Story of the Day: WTI Holds $92 After Weekend Tanker Hits
The live tape is crude. US Central Command said Saturday it struck three Iranian oil tankers after the IRGC launched ballistic missiles at two US Navy warships. The Suezmax Kylo sank in the Gulf of Oman. The Suezmax Stark I was disabled near Jask. The VLCC Downy was hit near Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub. Iran's top security official said a new restricted zone outside Hormuz will be declared in coming days. Kpler showed an average of 10 commodity ships transited Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May.
West Texas Intermediate is near 92.62 dollars (Reuters 92.62 at 07:27 GMT; MarketWatch 92.61), up from Friday's 91.48 settlement. Brent is near 97.48 dollars. OPEC+ kept October output unchanged on Sunday. Goldman Sachs said that if shipping attacks broaden, Brent could reach 120 dollars. Traders watching Friday's 91.48 as the near-term reference. A slip back through last Monday's 85.76 would fade the strike premium. These are observations, not instructions.
- WTI ~$92.62, up from Friday's $91.48 settlement; Brent ~$97.48
- US struck three Iranian tankers; Kylo sank; Iran flags a new Hormuz restricted zone
- Hormuz transits: 10 ships a day over 10 days, lowest since May (Kpler)
- Key reference: Friday $91.48; a break of last Monday $85.76 would fade the premium
Gold Slips Through $4,400 as Hike Odds Hold Near 58%
The metal that reclaimed 4,400 last week gave the handle back overnight. Spot gold is near 4,399 dollars (TradingView 4,399.085 as of September 7; Investing.com 4,398.91), a break of 4,400 after Friday's 4,430 close. Reuters had spot at 4,402.86 at 04:20 GMT. CME FedWatch assigns about a 58 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike on September 15-16, after Friday's 162,000 payrolls print.
PPI lands Thursday. CPI lands Friday at 12:30 UTC, the print Governor Christopher Waller tied to his September vote. Traders watching 4,400 as the lost reference. A reclaim of Friday's 4,430 would repair the break. A slide through last Wednesday's 4,365 session low would deepen the fade. These are technical reference points, not instructions.
- Gold ~$4,399; TradingView $4,399.085 as of September 7
- Broke $4,400 after Friday's close of $4,430
- September hike odds ~58% on CME FedWatch after payrolls of 162,000
- Key reference: $4,400; a break of Wednesday's $4,365 would deepen the fade
Crypto: Bitcoin Holds $79,499 Under $80,000
Digital assets did not join oil's bid. Bitcoin is near 79,499 dollars (TradingView 79,499; CoinMarketCap about 79,610 to 79,632), a small fade from this weekend's 79,800 area and still off last Thursday's high near 82,253. Ether is near 2,500 dollars (TradingView 2,500.1; CoinMarketCap about 2,497 to 2,500). Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.
US spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed 986.9 million dollars last week, including 730.87 million on Thursday. Combined assets stood near 101.3 billion. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin remains a reclaim of 80,000 dollars, then Thursday's 82,000 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are reference points, not instructions.
- Bitcoin ~$79,499; TradingView $79,499 as of September 7
- Small fade from this weekend's ~$79,800; still off Thursday's $82,253
- Ether ~$2,500, roughly flat versus this weekend
- BTC bullish trigger: reclaim $80,000 then $82,000; bearish: a break of $75,000
Europe Prints While Wall Street Sleeps
German industrial production fell 1.1 percent in July, against a Reuters cluster near a 0.1 percent rise, led by a 9.2 percent drop in auto output after multi-week shutdowns. June was revised to unchanged from +0.2 percent. Year over year, output was 1.6 percent lower. Euro-area Q2 GDP (third estimate) is on the docket at 09:00 UTC, prior +0.4 percent quarter on quarter and +1.0 percent year over year. Thursday's ECB is fully priced for a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50 percent. Docket: week-ahead note.
- German IP -1.1% in July vs +0.1% expected; autos -9.2%
- June revised to unchanged; year over year -1.6%
- Euro-area Q2 GDP third estimate due 09:00 UTC, prior +0.4% QoQ / +1.0% YoY
- ECB Thursday is fully priced for a 25bp hike to 2.50%
What's Next: Cash Reopens Tuesday, CPI Friday
Three scenarios frame the holiday session, not a recommendation. In a contained-Hormuz path, WTI holds the 92 area, gold stays near 4,400, and overnight ES leans on Friday's 7,718.60. In a hot-oil path, a push through last week's 93.14 high would add an inflation impulse into Friday CPI. In a gold-fade path, a slide through 4,365 would confirm the rate-hike bid and keep hike odds near 60 percent. Traders watching 7,718.60 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push through Thursday's 7,747.71 toward 7,756.76. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,706.12 low, then Tuesday's 7,631.47.
Cash reopens Tuesday. NFIB optimism and BoE Governor Bailey speak. China CPI Wednesday. ECB, PPI, Oracle and Adobe Thursday. August CPI Friday at 12:30 UTC, five days before the FOMC. Calendar: calendar.
- Tuesday: US cash reopens; NFIB and Bailey speak
- Thursday: ECB hike, US PPI, Oracle and Adobe after the close
- Friday 12:30 UTC: August CPI, the print Waller tied to his September vote
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,747.71; bearish: a slide through 7,706.12
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. S&P, Nasdaq and Dow are Friday, September 4, 2026 cash closes; E-mini futures, gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on September 7, 2026. US cash is shut Monday for Labor Day. Scenarios describe what the tape is watching, not instructions.
