Bookmark this one. Last week was Waller, payrolls of 162,000, and Nvidia's Hugging Face cheque. This week is the calendar: Friday's August CPI, the print Governor Christopher Waller tied to his September vote, a fully priced ECB hike on Thursday, and Oracle and Adobe after Thursday's close. US cash is shut today for Labor Day and reopens Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,718.60; E-mini futures are near 7,713. Bitcoin is near 79,800 dollars. Catch up: weekly markets roundup. This is a preview of what is scheduled, not an instruction.

The Big One: August CPI Friday, Five Days Before the FOMC

The week pivots on Friday at 12:30 UTC. The BLS drops August CPI, the last inflation print before the September 15-16 FOMC. Waller said his vote will be heavily influenced by this report: if inflation keeps cooling he is inclined to hold the funds rate in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range; a hotter print could swing him toward a hike. Friday's payrolls of 162,000 already took September hike odds back toward 60 percent. The Fed blackout is already in force. Docket: calendar.

July headline was 3.4 percent year over year, core 2.5 percent. August headline is seen matching 3.4 percent. Core is seen 2.4 to 2.5 percent, with the month-on-month core clustered near 0.2 percent. Waller flagged 0.2 percent as the hold line and 0.3 percent as the hike tell. Energy is the live risk after a 10 percent oil week (WTI settled Friday at 91.48 dollars). A 0.2 percent core keeps the hold case; a 0.3 percent core locks the hike path five days out.

Key Takeaways: The Big One
  • Friday 12:30 UTC: August CPI, last inflation print before the September 15-16 FOMC
  • Headline seen 3.4% YoY after 3.4%; core 2.4-2.5% after 2.5%, MoM core ~0.2%
  • Waller: 0.2% core MoM supports a hold; 0.3% would argue for a hike; odds ~60%

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Consensus versus prior. Not an options-expiry week; monthly OpEx and quad-witching sit next Friday, September 18.

  • Monday, Sep 7: Labor Day. Germany industrial production 06:00 UTC, July prior +0.2% month on month. Euro-area Q2 GDP (third estimate) 09:00 UTC, prior +0.4% quarter on quarter / +1.0% year over year.
  • Tuesday, Sep 8: Cash reopens. NFIB optimism seen ~99.3 after 99.8. BoE Governor Bailey speaks 13:15 UTC. US consumer credit 19:00 UTC.
  • Wednesday, Sep 9: China CPI and PPI 01:30 UTC. July CPI +0.5% year over year, PPI +3.5%. Desks cluster CPI near 0.7-0.9 percent and PPI near 3.6-3.8 percent. Apple event 17:00 UTC: iPhone 18 Pro and the first foldable.
  • Thursday, Sep 10: ECB 12:15 UTC, a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50 percent fully priced; Lagarde speaks after. US PPI 12:30 UTC: street 0.3 to 0.4 percent month on month after July's unchanged print, year over year about 4.5 to 4.7 percent after 4.7%. Claims seen ~205,000 after 206,000. Existing home sales 14:00 UTC, seen 4.03 million after 4.06 million. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
  • Friday, Sep 11: US CPI 12:30 UTC. Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC, seen ~51.7 after 51.5.
Key Takeaways: The Calendar
  • Monday: Labor Day; German IP and euro-area GDP still print
  • Wednesday 01:30 UTC: China CPI/PPI; Apple event 17:00 UTC
  • Thursday 12:15 UTC: ECB hike to 2.50%, then US PPI and claims
  • Friday 12:30 UTC: August CPI; Michigan 14:00 UTC
The European Central Bank headquarters, a glass skyscraper on the Main in Frankfurt, used as the ThriveInMarkets week-ahead inline image for September 7 to 11 2026, when the Governing Council is widely expected to raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent on Thursday September 10, a move traders have fully priced

Earnings to Watch

Six S&P 500 names report. Thursday after the close is the software test.

  • Tuesday after the close: GameStop, Casey's, ServiceTitan. United Natural Foods before the open.
  • Wednesday: Chewy before the open. American Eagle and AeroVironment after the close.
  • Thursday after the close: Oracle, EPS about 1.74 dollars on about 19.13 billion of revenue, up about 28 percent. Cloud growth and the 638 billion dollar backlog are the tell. Adobe, about 6.08 dollars EPS on 6.69 billion, against guidance of 6.67-6.72 billion and 6.05-6.10 dollars. Macy's before the open.
  • Friday before the open: Kroger.
Key Takeaways: Earnings
  • Oracle Thursday after the close, ~$1.74 EPS and ~$19.13B revenue, up ~28%
  • Adobe Thursday after the close, ~$6.08 EPS and ~$6.69B; AI monetization is the question
  • Macy's Thursday before the open; Kroger Friday; Chewy Wednesday

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 79,800 dollars (TradingView 79,835; CoinMarketCap 79,766 to 79,784), off last Thursday's high near 82,253. The live tape is Friday CPI, not a named ETF deadline. Spot bitcoin ETFs took 986.9 million dollars last week. Scheduled supply: STABLE about 25 million dollars Tuesday; NAME about 55 million Wednesday (75 percent of a small-cap float); PUMP about 27 to 35 million and APT about 7 million Friday-Saturday. Clarity Act cloture sits September 15, same day FOMC deliberations open. Live levels: homepage.

Key Takeaways: Crypto
  • Bitcoin ~$79,800, off last Thursday's $82,253 high as hike odds jumped
  • STABLE ~$25M Tuesday; NAME's 75% float clip Wednesday is a small-cap event
  • PUMP ~$27-35M and APT ~$7M Friday-Saturday; Clarity Act cloture is September 15

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a soft-CPI path, core prints 0.1 percent month on month, hike odds fade, and cash leans toward Thursday's 7,747.71. In a hold-the-line path, a 3.4 percent headline and 0.2 percent core month on month let Waller keep the hold case, and the S&P leans on Friday's 7,718.60. In a hot-CPI path, a 0.3 percent core or an energy-led beat locks hike odds and tests Tuesday's 7,631.47. Traders watching 7,718.60 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push through Thursday's 7,747.71 toward 7,756.76. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,706.12 low, then Tuesday's 7,631.47. For Bitcoin, a reclaim of 80,000 dollars is the bullish trigger; a slip through 75,000 is the bearish one. These are observations, not instructions.

Key Takeaways: The Week Ahead
  • Soft core CPI would fade September hike odds and lean the tape toward 7,747.71
  • A 3.4% headline and 0.2% core MoM would keep Waller's hold case and lean on 7,718.60
  • A 0.3% core or an energy-led beat would lock hike odds and test 7,631.47

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. S&P cash is Friday, September 4, 2026's close; E-mini futures and Bitcoin are live as of 06:00 UTC on September 7, 2026. US cash is shut Monday for Labor Day. Scenarios describe what the calendar is watching, not instructions.