Payrolls Reverse Waller as Oil Holds the $90 Handle

The week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 was Governor Christopher Waller's hold pitch, Friday's 162,000 payrolls print, Nvidia's 12.93 billion dollar Hugging Face cheque, and a 10 percent oil week. The S&P 500 still closed Friday at 7,718.60, up 0.09 percent on the week. This recap is published on a Sunday, when traditional markets are closed. Stock, gold and oil figures are Friday's closes (September 4). US cash is then shut Monday for Labor Day and reopens Tuesday. Bitcoin and Ether are live Sunday levels. See Saturday's weekly markets roundup. This is not a recommendation.

Weekly Scorecard: A Friday Fade After Thursday's 1 Percent Rally

Monday opened on leftover Hormuz oil, as mapped in the August 31 morning analysis, and cash closed 7,686.14. Tuesday was the week's low at 7,631.47. Wednesday snapped the losing streak at 7,666.60 on Dell. Thursday did the index work: Waller and Snowflake carried cash to 7,747.71, scored in the September 3 evening review. Friday gave some of it back. At Friday's cash close the S&P 500 stood at 7,718.60, down 0.38 percent on the day and up 0.09 percent on the week from the prior Friday's 7,711.76 (FRED, Yahoo, MarketWatch and the Associated Press wrap). The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,506.99, up 0.40 percent on the week. The Dow closed at 53,414.25, down 0.27 percent on the week. Those equity figures are Friday closes. US cash markets are shut until Tuesday.

Biggest Movers of the Week

No print captured the week's architecture like Dell's backlog. Fiscal second-quarter revenue was a record 47 billion dollars versus about 44.92 billion expected, with adjusted EPS of 7.04 dollars versus about 4.87. AI server revenue doubled to 16.4 billion. Orders of 60.9 billion lifted the backlog to 95 billion, and the full-year revenue guide moved to 192 billion. Dell closed Wednesday at 492 dollars, up 15.8 percent, as scored in the September 2 evening review. Snowflake printed 1.55 billion of revenue and a 6.07 billion product guide. Shares closed Thursday at 356.47 dollars, up 16.6 percent. Nvidia confirmed a 12.93 billion dollar purchase of Hugging Face, its largest outright acquisition. Broadcom beat on 29.59 billion of revenue, then faded 2.7 percent on a 34.8 billion fourth-quarter guide.

The other side of the index was name-specific. Lululemon cut full-year revenue to 10.35 to 10.50 billion dollars and comparable sales dropped 9 percent. Shares fell about 17 percent into Friday. Adobe dropped 6.7 percent after a CEO change. Fair Isaac fell 16.7 percent after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were directed to approve VantageScore.

Crypto: The ETF Bid Held After the $82,000 Tag

Digital assets converted Waller's hold comments into a flow story, then gave the high back when payrolls printed. Bitcoin is near 79,807 dollars live on Sunday (TradingView 79,807; CoinMarketCap about 79,780 to 79,850), up about 2.1 percent from last Sunday's 78,150 area after a Thursday high near 82,253. Ether holds near 2,498 dollars live (TradingView 2,498.1), up about 1.7 percent from last Sunday's 2,457 print. Those are 24/7 prints as of 09:06 UTC. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

US spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed 986.9 million dollars in the week ending Friday, the strongest three-week haul of 2026 at about 3.8 billion dollars. Thursday was the hinge: 730.87 million dollars, led by BlackRock's IBIT. Combined assets stood at about 101.3 billion dollars. Friday still took in 174.6 million even as the coin slipped back through 80,000. Ether funds slowed to 218.4 million from 824.4 million the prior week. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin is a reclaim of 80,000 dollars, then Thursday's 82,000 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are reference points, not instructions.

Macro and Geopolitics: Waller, Payrolls, and a $90 Oil Week

Thursday and Friday wrote two different September scripts. At a Reuters NEXT event, Waller said he is inclined to hold the funds rate in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range on September 15-16 if August inflation keeps cooling. "Give disinflation a chance," he said. CME FedWatch took September hike odds from about 62 percent that morning to about 48 to 50 percent. Friday reversed it. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August after a revised 21,000 gain in July, against a Reuters cluster near 56,000. Unemployment held at 4.1 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent on the year. June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. Hike odds moved back toward 60 percent. The 10-year yield settled near 4.78 percent.

ISM services rose to 55.4, with the prices index at 72.6. US and Iranian forces traded strikes around Hormuz all week. West Texas Intermediate settled Friday at 91.48 dollars (MarketWatch and Investing.com), up 9.7 percent on the week from the prior Friday's 83.40, after tagging 92.29 Wednesday. Spot gold closed Friday at 4,430 dollars (ADVFN 4,430.185; Comex front-month 4,429.80), down 0.56 percent on the week from 4,455.20, after holding Wednesday's 4,400 reclaim. Gold and oil figures are Friday closes. Those markets reopen with electronic hours on the holiday, then a full session Tuesday. The Clarity Act remains a September 15 cloture vote.

The Week Ahead: Labor Day, CPI, and the FOMC Clock

US cash is shut Monday for Labor Day and reopens Tuesday. Crypto still trades. Gold and oil run electronic holiday hours. These are scenarios for next week, not instructions to act on any asset:

• Monday, September 7: US markets closed for Labor Day. Hormuz headlines remain the weekend wildcard above 90 dollars on WTI.
• Thursday, September 10: weekly jobless claims, August PPI (Briefing.com cluster near 0.4 percent after a flat prior print), existing home sales. Oracle reports after the close.
• Friday, September 11, 12:30 UTC: August CPI, the print Waller said will heavily influence his September vote. A hot energy-led print would lock hike odds higher into the blackout. Adobe is also on the earnings calendar around this window.
• Policy clocks: FOMC day one and the Senate cloture vote on the Clarity Act both sit on September 15. The decision and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference land September 16. Blackout is already in force.

In a soft-inflation path, CPI cools and hike odds fade, putting Thursday's 7,747.71 back in view. In a hot-CPI path, an energy-led beat locks September hike odds and tests Tuesday's 7,631.47. Traders watching 7,718.60 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push back through Thursday's 7,747.71 toward 7,756.76. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,706.12 low, then Tuesday's 7,631.47. These are observations of the price structure, not instructions. Docket: week-ahead note. Calendar: calendar.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Equity, gold and WTI figures are Friday closes for September 4, 2026. Equities reopen Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday. Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 09:06 UTC on September 6, 2026. Levels cited are observations of what the market is watching, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.