Welcome to the trading week of Monday, August 3 to Friday, August 7. This is the first full week after the July 29 Federal Reserve hold, and the docket is dense: a jobs report that could reset rate expectations, four more heavyweight earnings sessions, and the ISM Services gauge of the largest part of the US economy. As Monday's European session opened, Bitcoin traded near $62,900, steadying after last week's $9.6 billion options expiry, while the S&P 500 sat at its record Friday close of 7,489.72 with the US cash market shut until the New York open. This preview is the calendar: what is scheduled and why each item matters. It is market commentary, not advice. For last week's stories, catch up on our weekly roundup and weekend recap.
The Big One: July Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday
The week builds to Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report at 12:30 UTC, and it matters more than a typical jobs Friday. June stunned the market with a shock print of just +57K jobs, far below the roughly +115K consensus, a miss that helped reset hike odds heading into the FOMC and left the labour market looking wobbly. Consensus for July is a rebound toward +130K, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2 percent and average hourly earnings near +0.3 percent month over month. The question the tape needs answered is simple: was June a one-month air pocket or the start of a genuine cooling? A soft repeat would revive the debate about whether the Fed's hawkish hold, delivered with three dissents in favour of a hike, is squeezing an economy that is already slowing. A hot number cutting the other way would keep the long end of the Treasury market, where the 10-year yield ended last week near 4.74 percent, under pressure. With Fed officials off the blackout and back on the speaking circuit, every payroll surprise now lands into live commentary.
- July NFP prints Friday at 12:30 UTC: consensus ~+130K jobs, unemployment 4.2%, wages ~+0.3% MoM
- Follows June's shock +57K, so the market is watching for rebound versus confirmation of a cooling trend
- A soft number pressures the hold-versus-hike debate; a hot one keeps long-end yields, near 4.74%, in focus
Economic Calendar: Day by Day
The macro slate bookends the week with the two ISM surveys and saves the heavy data for the back half.
- Monday, Aug 3: China NBS Manufacturing PMI (01:30 UTC, prior 49.7) and Germany retail sales open the week abroad. In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI lands at 14:00 UTC, forecast ~49.2 versus 49.0 prior, keeping factory activity just inside contraction.
- Tuesday, Aug 4: A quieter data day, with the focus on earnings. New Zealand's Q2 jobs report prints overnight.
- Wednesday, Aug 5: The week's densest session. ADP private payrolls (12:15 UTC, forecast ~+120K versus +98K prior), ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC, forecast ~53.5 versus a robust 54.0 prior, its 24th straight month of expansion), and EIA crude oil inventories (14:30 UTC) all cluster within two hours. ISM Services is the single most important macro read before Friday, since services carry the bulk of the economy.
- Thursday, Aug 6: Eurozone retail sales (09:00 UTC) and US initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC, forecast ~200K versus ~195K prior), a timely check on layoffs one day before payrolls.
- Friday, Aug 7: The centrepiece. US July nonfarm payrolls at 12:30 UTC, alongside Canada's employment report at the same time and China's July trade balance overnight.
- ISM Manufacturing Monday (~49.2) and ISM Services Wednesday (~53.5) bracket the growth picture
- Wednesday stacks ADP, ISM Services and EIA inventories into a two-hour window
- Jobless claims Thursday and NFP Friday make the back half a labour-market gauntlet
Earnings to Watch
With the Magnificent Seven done, the spotlight shifts to AI silicon, the hard economy, and the consumer. These reports span the market's biggest debates.
- Palantir (PLTR), Monday after close: The AI-narrative bellwether. Government and commercial AI revenue growth will set the tone for whether the software side of the AI trade can keep its premium valuation.
- Caterpillar (CAT), Tuesday pre-market: A read on the hard, physical economy. Consensus is EPS near $6.20, up about 31 percent year over year, on roughly $19.2 billion in revenue. Construction and mining demand is the tell.
- AMD (AMD), Tuesday after close: The most watched chip print of the week. Data-center revenue is the number that matters as the market gauges whether AI accelerator demand is broadening beyond a single dominant supplier.
- Eli Lilly (LLY), Wednesday pre-market: The GLP-1 giant. Mounjaro and Zepbound sales, expected near $6.5 billion combined, drive one of the market's biggest single-stock stories outside tech.
- Disney (DIS), Wednesday pre-market: Streaming profitability and parks demand, the latter a live test of the discretionary consumer after a summer of Middle East headlines and higher fuel costs.
- Uber (UBER) and Shopify (SHOP), Wednesday pre-market: Gross bookings and e-commerce GMV offer a clean read on real-time consumer spending; Airbnb (ABNB) follows Thursday.
- Palantir Monday and AMD Tuesday are the AI-trade barometers of the week
- Caterpillar reads the hard economy; Eli Lilly the GLP-1 boom
- Disney, Uber, Shopify and Airbnb collectively gauge the discretionary consumer
Crypto Docket
Digital assets enter the week digesting rather than reacting. With last week's $9.6 billion July options expiry cleared, Bitcoin is steadying near $62,900 and the question is whether it holds the $63K area or drifts on a firmer dollar and elevated yields. On the scheduled side, a mid-week token unlock in Succinct (PROVE) is due around Wednesday, August 5, one of the larger releases of the month; unlocks add fresh supply and can pressure the affected token near the event. Further out, Cardano (ADA) ETF eligibility is among the August catalysts the market is tracking as the altcoin ETF pipeline widens, following Morgan Stanley's recent listing of staking Ether and Solana ETPs. There is no top-tier crypto macro print this week, so flows into the new institutional wrappers and Bitcoin's reaction to Friday's jobs number are the stories to watch.
- BTC ~$62,900, steadying after the $9.6B options expiry; the $63K area is the near-term pivot to watch
- Succinct (PROVE) token unlock ~Aug 5 adds fresh supply mid-week
- Altcoin ETF pipeline stays in focus with ADA eligibility among August's catalysts
How the Week Could Play Out
The week hinges on two axes: the labour data and the AI-earnings read. These are scenarios to monitor, not prompts to act.
- Cooling-labour scenario: A soft ADP Wednesday and a weak NFP Friday would reinforce the June air-pocket read. Traders watching the 10-year yield would look for it to ease back below 4.7 percent, a bullish trigger for rate-sensitive corners; the invalidation would be a hot payroll number reigniting hike talk.
- Resilient-economy scenario: A firm ISM Services on Wednesday plus a rebound in payrolls would argue the slowdown was overstated. That keeps long-end yields elevated and puts the burden back on mega-cap earnings momentum to justify record index levels on narrow breadth.
- AI-earnings swing: Strong data-center guidance from AMD and a solid Palantir print would extend the AI-capex-is-working narrative that powered last week's records. A disappointment from either is the bearish trigger for the semis and AI-software complex, independent of the macro data.
- The 10-year yield's reaction to jobs data is the key macro swing factor
- ISM Services Wednesday is the growth tell before Friday's payrolls
- AMD and Palantir can move the AI trade regardless of the macro prints
ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Bitcoin is a live Monday print; the S&P 500 figure is Friday, July 31's closing level, with the US cash market reopening Monday. All dates, times and scheduled events are subject to change and consensus figures are estimates. Levels cited are reference points for context, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.
