Week Ahead: FOMC Wednesday, BoJ Friday, Quad Witching

Bookmark this one. Last week was August CPI, 100-dollar oil, and a second ECB hike. This week is the calendar: Wednesday's FOMC, a 25-basis-point hike money markets price at about 85 to 90 percent, Friday's Bank of Japan move to 1.25 percent, and Thursday's Bank of England hold. Friday is also quarterly quad-witching. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,656.98; E-mini futures are near 7,618. Bitcoin is near 77,550 dollars. Catch up on last week here: weekly markets roundup.

The Big One: FOMC Wednesday, Vote, Dots, then Warsh

The week pivots on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC. The FOMC drops its statement, the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, and the dot plot. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 18:30 UTC. The Committee has held 3.50 to 3.75 percent all year. July was a 9-3 hold. Then August payrolls printed 162,000 versus about 56,000 expected, core CPI rose 0.3 percent on the month versus 0.2 percent, and PPI printed 5.4 percent year on year. Money markets now price about an 85 to 90 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75-4.00 percent (Yardeni about 87 percent). Docket: calendar.

This is a projection meeting: the hike, if it comes, is only half the event. The 2026 dots are the other half. A hike with another 2026 move in the median would reprice the front end. A hold against an 85-90 percent strip would be the surprise. August retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the last demand print (July -0.6 percent, consensus +0.3 percent). EIA crude is 14:30 UTC.

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Consensus versus prior. Friday is quarterly quad-witching, about 6.2 trillion dollars of US options notional on the session.

• Monday, Sep 14: Japan IP already printed -0.2% month on month versus +0.1% preliminary. Canada CPI 12:30 UTC, seen 3.0% year on year after 3.0%. Lagarde speaks around 15:15 UTC.
• Tuesday, Sep 15: China IP, retail, FAI 02:00 UTC (IP about +4.8% after +4.5%; retail about +0.8% after +0.6%). UK labour 06:00 UTC: unemployment seen 5.0% after 4.9%, earnings about +3.9% after +4.1%. Empire State 12:30 UTC, about 13.5-15.0 after 20.6. 20-year reopening, about 13 billion dollars, 17:00 UTC. Clarity Act cloture 18:15 UTC.
• Wednesday, Sep 16: UK CPI 06:00 UTC, headline near 3.1% after 2.9%, core near 2.7%. US retail sales 12:30 UTC: +0.3% after -0.6%, ex-autos +0.5% after -0.3%. EIA 14:30 UTC. FOMC 18:00 UTC.
• Thursday, Sep 17: Eurozone CPI final 09:00 UTC, flash +3.3% / core +2.4%, seen unrevised. BoE 11:00 UTC, hold at 3.75%, about a 32% hike tail. Claims, Philly Fed, housing starts 12:30 UTC: claims about 209,000 after 206,000; Philly about 28.9 after 47.4; starts about 1.32 million after 1.24 million. Japan CPI 23:30 UTC, core seen +1.8% after +1.8%.
• Friday, Sep 18: BoJ about 03:00 UTC, 25bp to 1.25% (highest since 1995; about 97% of economists), then Ueda. UK retail sales 06:00 UTC, about -0.3% after -0.5%. US industrial production 13:15 UTC. Quad-witching into the close.

Earnings to Watch

A thin week. Lennar is the housing-and-rates print.

• Monday: Hain Celestial before the open. Dave & Buster's after the close (about 0.18-0.25 dollars EPS, 557 million of revenue) and Grifols (about 0.30 dollars EPS, 2.29 billion).
• Tuesday after the close: Trip.com, about 0.87-0.98 dollars EPS on about 2.29 billion, a China-travel read into Tuesday's activity data.
• Wednesday after the close: Lennar, about 1.30 dollars EPS on about 8.31 billion. Orders, margins, and incentives are the tell into a Fed priced to hike.
• Thursday after the close: Hub Group, about 0.29 dollars EPS on about 979 million, a freight read the morning after the Fed.

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 77,550 dollars (TradingView 77,591; CoinMarketCap 77,488 to 77,521), still below 80,000 after last week's 462.7 million dollars of spot bitcoin ETF outflows. The Senate votes Tuesday at 18:15 UTC on cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, the Clarity Act. It needs 60 votes. It is not final passage. Live levels: homepage.

Scheduled supply: Arbitrum about 13 million dollars (about 1.4% of supply) around Wednesday 00:00 UTC. Tuesday also brings Starknet, SEI, and Boundless (ZKC). Cardano Node 11.2 is slated through Friday.

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a priced-hike path, the Fed delivers 25 basis points, the 2026 dots do not add another move, and the S&P leans on Friday's 7,656.98 into the BoE and the BoJ. In a hold-shock path, the Committee holds against an 85-90 percent strip, and gold, duration, and the Nasdaq would rally. In a hawkish-dots-plus-BoJ path, a hike comes with another 2026 move in the median, then Ueda keeps October or December live, a yen-carry squeeze that would test last Thursday's 7,591.70. Traders watching 7,656.98 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,673.52, then 7,718.60. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,591.70. For Bitcoin, a reclaim of 80,000 dollars is the bullish trigger; a slip through 75,000 is the bearish one. These are observations, not instructions.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. S&P cash is Friday, September 11, 2026's close; E-mini futures and Bitcoin are live as of 06:00 UTC on September 14, 2026.