Bookmark this one. Last week was inflation. This week is the calendar: Wednesday's FOMC minutes, a four-name retail gauntlet after Friday's 0.6 percent sales drop, and Friday's flash PMIs six days before Jackson Hole. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76; E-mini futures are near 7,815. Bitcoin is near 63,470 dollars. Catch up on last week in the weekly markets roundup. This is a preview of what is scheduled, not an instruction.

The Big One: July FOMC Minutes on Wednesday

The week pivots on Wednesday's FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC. The committee held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on a 9-3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for an immediate 25 basis-point hike, the first three-way hawkish split since 2016. Chair Warsh offered no forward guidance. The minutes will show whether those three had broader sympathy or were isolated. July CPI, PPI, payrolls and retail sales have all printed since the meeting, and all lean against a September hike. Funds futures as of Friday priced roughly a one-third chance of a September hike, down from over 50 percent. The full docket sits on our economic calendar.

Key Takeaways: The Big One
  • FOMC minutes Wednesday 18:00 UTC unpack the July 9-3 hold
  • Three presidents dissented for a 25bp hike, first three-way hawkish split since 2016
  • Data since the meeting lean against a September hike; odds sit near one-third

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

US data is lighter than last week. Consensus versus prior:

  • Monday, Aug 17: Canada CPI (12:30 UTC), headline seen about +0.5% MoM / ~2.9% YoY after June's -0.4% / 2.8%. Same stamp: NY Empire State, August seen near 10 after July's 15.6. NAHB Housing Market Index (14:00 UTC) follows July's 34.
  • Tuesday, Aug 18: UK labour (06:00 UTC), unemployment seen 4.8% after 4.9%, regular pay about 3.3% after 3.4%. US housing starts (12:30 UTC) seen near 1.34 million after June's 1.427 million, plus July import prices. Industrial production (13:15 UTC) seen +0.3% after +0.1%. Eurozone ZEW (09:00 UTC), Germany seen near 30 after 26.3.
  • Wednesday, Aug 19: UK CPI (06:00 UTC), headline seen at 2.9% after 2.6% on the Ofgem cap, core seen at 2.5%. Eurozone CPI final (09:00 UTC) should confirm the 2.9% / 2.5% flash. EIA inventories (14:30 UTC) follow last week's +17.4 million-barrel build. Then the minutes at 18:00 UTC.
  • Thursday, Aug 20: PBoC LPR (01:15 UTC) priced for a hold at 3.00% / 3.50%. Australia jobs (01:30 UTC) seen +20K to +25K after +76.3K. US jobless claims (12:30 UTC), prior 209K, seen near 210K, plus the Philadelphia Fed index. Japan CPI (23:30 UTC), core seen near 1.8% after 1.6%.
  • Friday, Aug 21: UK retail sales (06:00 UTC), then flash PMIs: Germany 07:30 UTC, eurozone 08:00, UK 08:30, US 13:45 UTC. US composite seen near 54 after July's 54.5. Friday is monthly OpEx, not quad witching. Jackson Hole opens August 27 to 29.
Key Takeaways: The Calendar
  • Canada CPI and Empire State open Monday; UK labour and US housing land Tuesday
  • UK CPI Wednesday (2.9% vs 2.6%) sits next to the minutes at 18:00 UTC
  • Claims Thursday near 210K; flash PMIs Friday plus monthly OpEx
A thick leather-bound official minutes book with gold-leaf edges and a brass clasp standing on dark reflective marble under warm amber light, symbolising Wednesday's July FOMC minutes after a 9-3 hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent with three hike dissents

Earnings to Watch

This is a consumer week. Four retailers report after Friday's first sales drop in nine months. Guidance is the mover, not the beat.

  • Home Depot (HD), Tuesday before the open: EPS seen about 4.71 to 4.73 dollars. US comps test big-ticket housing demand.
  • Baidu (BIDU), Tuesday before the open: the first large China-tech print, a read on ads and AI cloud.
  • Target (TGT), Wednesday before the open: EPS seen about 2.24 to 2.32 dollars. Apparel and home show whether households are trading down.
  • Lowe's (LOW), Wednesday before the open: confirms or contradicts Home Depot into the minutes.
  • Also Wednesday: Analog Devices, TJX and Estee Lauder (pre-market). ADI is the week's semiconductor read.
  • Walmart (WMT), Thursday before the open: EPS seen about 0.74 dollars. Traffic and grocery share test whether the consumer is bending or breaking.
  • Also Thursday: Alibaba before the US open around 09:30 UTC, plus Deere and Ross Stores.
  • Tuesday before the open: Reddit joins the S&P 500, replacing AvalonBay.
Key Takeaways: Earnings
  • Home Depot Tue, Target and Lowe's Wed, Walmart Thu, all before the bell
  • Each is a consumer cross-check after Friday's 0.6% sales drop
  • Reddit joins the S&P Tuesday; Alibaba and Baidu are the China-tech pair

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 63,470 dollars, still boxed under 64,000. Scheduled supply is the live tape: Cronos unlocks Monday, Manta Tuesday, then Thursday's pair of KAITO (about 13.5 percent of market cap) and LayerZero. Friday brings Deribit's weekly BTC and ETH expiry at 08:00 UTC, ahead of US flash PMIs. SALT and Kraken's Wyoming Blockchain Symposium runs August 17 to 20, a week before Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech. The Clarity Act is still spoken of for September 15. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

Key Takeaways: Crypto
  • Bitcoin ~$63,470, still boxed under $64,000
  • KAITO Thursday is the largest unlock, ~13.5% of float
  • Deribit weekly expiry Friday; Wyoming symposium this week

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket. Each describes what the calendar could trigger, not a recommendation. In a soft-consumer path, the retailers confirm Friday's sales miss and the S&P leans toward 7,757.64. In a hold-the-line path, the minutes show the dissenters were isolated and retail guidance holds, so the tape leans toward Thursday's 7,798.99 record. In a hawkish-minutes path, the hike case had sympathy beyond the three named votes and September hike odds rebuild into OpEx. Traders watching 7,798.99 as the bullish trigger for the S&P, 7,757.64 as the bearish trigger, and a break of 7,728 as invalidation of the weekly-gain tone. For Bitcoin, a reclaim of 64,000 dollars is the bullish trigger; a slip through 62,800 is the bearish one. These are observations, not instructions.

Key Takeaways: The Week Ahead
  • Soft consumer would put 7,757.64 back in play into Friday PMIs
  • Isolated dissents plus intact retail would lean the tape toward 7,798.99
  • Hawkish minutes would rebuild September hike odds into OpEx and Jackson Hole

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. The S&P 500 cash figure is Friday, August 14, 2026's close; E-mini futures and Bitcoin are live as of 06:00 UTC on August 17, 2026. Scenarios describe what the calendar is watching, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.