S&P 500 Jumps 2% as Oil Falls and Nvidia Slides Today

US stocks rebounded sharply today as oil fell and chip stocks bounced, with the S&P 500 up about 2.2 percent in the session so far. As flagged in this morning's analysis, Asia had already rallied and Tuesday's inflation data was the next test. This note is written as of 20:00 UTC, and US cash trading closes at 21:00 UTC, so every index figure below is intraday.

US Stocks Today: A Broad Rebound After Last Week's Selloff

As of 19:17 UTC, the S&P 500 was at 7,542.34, up 165.48 points (2.24%) from Friday's close of 7,376.86 (Yahoo Finance). The Dow was 52,349.39 (+2.07%) and the Nasdaq Composite 25,198.53 (+2.52%). The Nasdaq 100 was up about 3.1 percent and the Russell 2000 small-cap index about 3.0 percent (24/7 Wall St.). All three major indexes fell last week, so this is a partial recovery from a rough stretch for AI and chip names.

Gains were widespread rather than confined to one group. Traders watching the S&P 500 have Friday's high of 7,444.20 now behind them, which makes that area a key reference zone if the index pulls back. A move back below it would weaken today's structure.

Story of the Day: Oil Slides and Chips Rally, While Nvidia Lags

Two stories drove the tape. First, oil: WTI crude fell about 3.4 percent to roughly $87.7 a barrel (Tokenpost, Yahoo Finance) after President Trump said further US attacks on Iran were unlikely if peace negotiations kept progressing (TipRanks). Cheaper energy eases inflation worries, which helps airlines, transport and small caps with floating-rate debt.

Second, chips. AMD rose about 12 percent, Broadcom about 9 percent and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index about 6.8 percent (TipRanks, Yahoo Finance). Nvidia went the other way. Its board opened an internal investigation tied to CEO Jensen Huang, and the stock fell as much as 8 percent at the worst before stabilizing. Nvidia said it had no reason to believe its technology or US national security had been compromised. That the index still rose strongly with the sector's largest name under pressure shows how broad the bounce was.

The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.88 percent (Yahoo Finance), up slightly on the day, so the rally did not come from falling long yields. Gold rose about 1 percent to $4,104 (TradingView).

Crypto Check: Bitcoin Sits Below $75,000 Despite the Equity Rally

Crypto did not join the risk-on move. Bitcoin was $74,494 on TradingView, down 0.85 percent over 24 hours, while Yahoo Finance had it down 1.75 percent. Ethereum was $2,120 (TradingView), roughly flat to slightly higher on the day but down about 5.7 percent on the week. Both are intraday: the daily candle closes at 00:00 UTC.

Flows explain part of the weakness. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion of outflows in the week to November 6, and spot Ether ETFs saw $365 million, a sixth straight week of outflows (TradingView). Traders are watching the $74,800 to $75,100 area as a reference zone for Bitcoin. A sustained move back above it would ease the pressure.

After-Hours & Overnight Watch: US CPI Is the Next Test

The US consumer price index is due at 13:30 UTC on Tuesday. Economists expect annual inflation near 2.7 percent (TipRanks). Fed funds futures priced a December rate hike at nearly 80 percent earlier today (Reuters via Business Recorder), so a hot reading could challenge today's rally and a soft one could extend it.

Also on the radar: whether US-Iran talks keep moving, since Brent was near $93 and oil is now the swing factor for inflation expectations, and Nvidia's investigation, which could keep pressure on the chip leader. Catch up on the week ahead for the full calendar. This is market commentary, not investment advice.