Jobs Report Due Today After S&P 500 Falls on AI Stocks

The October jobs report is due today after the S&P 500 fell 4.36 percent on AI stocks. As flagged in Wednesday's morning analysis, gold had just reclaimed 4,000 dollars on the midterm sweep. The S&P 500 cash close was 7,353.73 (CNBC, Yahoo Finance). Overnight S&P 500 futures last printed 7,400.25, labeled overnight futures (Yonhap Infomax, Asia morning), with Investing.com at 7,402.0 as of 00:39 GMT. US cash opens at 14:30 UTC.

The Setup: Asia Sold After Thursday's AI Rout

The S&P 500 closed 7,353.73 on Thursday, down 4.36 percent (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Markets Insider), range 7,350.35 to 7,681.29, open 7,678.72, against Wednesday's 7,688.62. Nasdaq closed 24,315.00 (-5.52%) and sits in a correction, 12 percent below its October record close (Straits Times). The Dow closed 51,523.06 (-3.44% / -1,833.06). All 11 S&P 500 sectors fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12.25%. Straits Times put the S&P 500 market-cap wipe at 3 trillion dollars.

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 57,434.77, down 3,643.13 / 5.96% (Nikkei Indexes, November 6 close). MarketWatch had 57,367.02 (-6.08%) as of 14:59 JST, 0.12 percent apart. Session range 56,745.81 to 60,374.35. Bloomberg said the index fell as much as 7.1 percent to 56,745.81, 20 percent below the June peak. South Korea's Kospi dropped more than 8 percent and tripped circuit breakers for 20 minutes (Straits Times). TSMC fell as much as 8.5%. SoftBank fell 11%. The Nikkei Asia300 Investable Index last printed 2,160.86 (-3.72%) as of 15:39 JST, a sharp overnight move in the Asia sleeve of world stocks. Japan's listed REIT gauge, the Nikkei ESG-REIT Index, last printed 921.74 (-2.25%) as of 15:30 JST. Overnight S&P 500 futures 7,400.25 (Yonhap); Nasdaq-100 futures 26,949.50 (+0.73%). The 10-year US yield was at 4.838%, near the lowest since September 9 (Straits Times). Catch up: Tuesday's evening review and the week ahead. S&P bullish trigger: reclaim Thursday's 7,681.29, then Wednesday's 7,688.62. Bearish trigger: a slip through Thursday's 7,350.35.

Story of the Day: October Jobs Report at 13:30 UTC

The Bureau of Labor Statistics prints the October employment situation at 13:30 UTC. FactSet's median, from 24 estimates, is +65,000 payrolls after September's +29,000, range 50,000 to 125,000. Dow Jones is lower at +59,000 (CNBC). Unemployment is seen unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are seen at +0.3% month on month after +0.1%. Guide: the jobs-report explainer. CME FedWatch, via Reuters, puts a December hike at 68%, down from near-certainty last month. Canada prints at the same stamp, seen +16,100 after -68,300, unemployment 6.5%. None of this is a recommendation.

Scenarios to watch: a print above 120,000 or wages at 0.4 percent would firm December hike odds. A print below 20,000 or unemployment at 4.4 percent would fade those odds. The wage line is the one that maps to December after a 3.1 percent core PCE week.

Gold Slips as Oil Rebounds Into Payrolls

Spot gold last printed 4,044.80 dollars (Kitco as of 1:30 a.m. ET November 6 / 06:30 UTC), down 1.04 percent / 42.40 dollars. Range 4,035.50 to 4,107.90. TradingView sat at 4,042.490 as of November 6, 0.06 percent apart. Reuters had 4,044.09 at 0501 GMT, down 1.1 percent, still on track for its best week since late August. COMEX gold futures for December last printed 4,053.30, down 1.5 percent (Reuters). Tastylive's Ilya Spivak tied the dip to the oil rebound as an inflation overlay. KCM's Tim Waterer said gold positions were being liquidated to cover margin calls in the equity rout. Goldman Sachs on Thursday cut its end-2026 gold forecast to 4,150 from 4,650, citing a more hawkish Fed (Reuters). Gold bullish trigger: a reclaim of Kitco's 4,107.90. Bearish trigger: a slip through 4,035.50.

Oil Rebounds From Thursday's Settle

West Texas Intermediate last printed 91.57 dollars (Oilpriceapi as of 06:21 UTC), up from Thursday's 90.52 settle (MarketWatch). MarketWatch sat at 91.55 as of 12:52 a.m. EST, 0.02 percent apart. Overnight range 90.89 to 92.53 (MarketWatch). Reuters had WTI at 91.38 at 0504 GMT. Brent last printed 99.80 (Oilpriceapi) against Reuters 99.58 at 0504 GMT. Both contracts were on track for a 12 percent weekly drop, then bounced as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued (Reuters). Oil bullish trigger: a reclaim of 92.53. Bearish trigger: a slip through 90.89, then Thursday's 90.52 settle.

Bitcoin Holds After Thursday's Slide

Bitcoin last printed 75,556 dollars (TradingView). Kraken last printed 75,585.30, 0.04 percent apart. Kraken today's range 75,263.20 to 76,300.70; 24-hour range 75,100 to 80,725.90. Ether last printed 2,218.7 dollars (TradingView); Kraken 2,227.47, 0.40 percent apart. Prints labeled intraday. The Hyperliquid core-contributor unlock hit at 00:00 UTC. Trackers model about 9.92 million HYPE; the calendar's actual is 180,000 HYPE to core contributors. Bitcoin bullish trigger: a reclaim of 76,300.70. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,263.20, then the 24-hour low at 75,100.

What's Next: Payrolls, Michigan, Then Fed Speakers

Payrolls and Canada jobs print at 13:30 UTC. Cash opens at 14:30 UTC. University of Michigan preliminary November sentiment prints at 15:00 UTC, seen at 47.2 after October's final 48.0. Fed speakers John Williams, Alberto Musalem, Lorie Logan, and Michelle Bowman are at 16:00 UTC, the first named voices after the print. Docket: the calendar. Scenarios to watch: a hot wage print that Williams treats as live for December, or a stall that lets the Committee wait for next week's CPI. None of this is a recommendation.

For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation. US cash closes are Thursday, November 5, 2026. Overnight prints are Friday, November 6, 2026.