Oil fell to its lowest level since early September after President Trump said new strikes on Iran look unlikely, and S&P 500 futures edged higher. As flagged in the week ahead, this week turns on US inflation, and the October CPI report lands today.
Prices as of 06:30 UTC.
- Brent slid to about $92 because Trump signalled restraint on Iran, which eased inflation worries.
- Wall Street had its best day since April on Monday, so the bar for a CPI surprise is higher.
- Traders see a December Fed hike as likely, about 84%, so a hot core reading would matter most.
Where Markets Stand: Asia Follows Wall Street Higher
The S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent on Monday to close at 7,550, its best day since April, and the Nasdaq gained 2.7 percent to 25,253. All 11 sectors rose as oil dropped and tech rebounded after last week's selloff. S&P 500 futures were near 7,593 this morning.
In Asia, South Korea's Kospi jumped roughly 4 percent and Japan's Nikkei added about 2.5 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 1.5 percent. Hong Kong was up less than half a percent.
Scenarios to watch: a hold above the overnight futures high of 7,593 would keep the rebound intact, while a slip under 7,567 would fade it.
- S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,550, up 2.3%
- Kospi and Nikkei led Asia higher on lower oil
Story of the Day: Oil Slides After Trump Pulls Back on Iran
West Texas Intermediate traded near $85.80, down about 1 percent, while Brent sat near $91.50. Trump said renewed strikes on Iran now look "quite unlikely". Tehran answered by asking Washington to accept seven conditions before any talks, so the pause is far from a deal.
Lower oil matters for CPI day because last month's gasoline jump drove the headline inflation print. A cheaper barrel lowers the inflation worry that has been pushing rate-hike bets higher.
Scenarios to watch: a bounce back through $86.85, Monday's close, would signal the slide is pausing. A move under $85.52, the overnight low, would extend it.
- WTI near $85.80, Brent near $91.50, lowest since early September
- Iran has asked for seven conditions before talks
Gold Waits for CPI
Spot gold sat near $4,123, almost unchanged on the day after a bounce of about 2 percent on Monday. A softer dollar helped gold on Monday, while firm Fed hike odds cap it. Economists expect headline CPI up 0.3 percent in October and core up 0.2 percent. Guide: the CPI explainer.
Scenarios to watch: gold futures traded between $4,117 and $4,156 overnight. A break above the top would strengthen the bounce, and a drop below the bottom would weaken it.
- Gold near $4,123, flat on the day
- CPI consensus: +0.3% headline, +0.2% core
Bitcoin Holds Above the Recent Low
Bitcoin traded near $74,618, up about 0.5 percent over 24 hours, while Ether sat near $2,117. Crypto has lagged stocks because investors worry that a Democratic-controlled Congress could toughen rules on digital assets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also lost $1.28 billion in outflows last week.
Scenarios to watch: Bitcoin's overnight range ran from $74,326 to $75,317. A close above the top would help sentiment, while a slip under the bottom would keep the pressure on.
- Bitcoin near $74,618, Ether near $2,117
- Regulation worries and ETF outflows weigh on crypto
What's Next: Waller, CPI and Evening Earnings
Fed Governor Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC. NFIB small business optimism follows at 11:00 UTC, and the CPI report is due at 13:30 UTC. Annual rates may be missing because of last year's government shutdown, so the monthly core reading is likely to drive the reaction.
After the US close, McDonald's, Charles Schwab and CoreWeave report at 21:00 UTC, followed by the API oil inventory estimate at 21:30 UTC. US bond markets are shut on Wednesday for Veterans Day, so any CPI surprise may meet thinner trading.
- Waller 09:00 UTC, CPI 13:30 UTC
- CoreWeave, Schwab and McDonald's report after the close
Market commentary only, not investment advice. ThriveInMarkets is based in Cyprus.