The Session in 60 Seconds

Oil broke $100 and stayed there. Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first public statement since succeeding his father as supreme leader, declared the Strait of Hormuz "will remain closed." Three more vessels were hit overnight, bringing the total to 17. The IEA's record 400M-barrel reserve release barely dented the rally. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $71 (from $66), implying even the bank sees disruption lasting months.

Wall Street crumbled. The Dow dropped roughly 600 points (1.27%), the S&P 500 fell 1.22% to 6,740 (cracking below both its 50 and 100-day moving averages for the first time since December), and the Nasdaq lost 1.66%. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5% as stagflation fears tightened their grip. Energy was the only green sector on the board.

Oil: The Story That Swallowed Everything

Brent crude settled at $100.05/bbl, up 8% on the day and 12.5% on the week. WTI closed at $96.06. The surge came despite the US announcing a 172M-barrel SPR draw and the IEA coordinating a historic 400M-barrel reserve release across 32 nations. Traders are treating reserve dumps as confirmation the disruption is structural.

The FT reported tankers are now "sitting ducks" in the Gulf, with operators facing risk whether they stay anchored or attempt to flee through the Strait. Supertankers are rerouting to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea pipeline terminus at Yanbu, but that route carries its own Houthi risk.

Equities: Technical Damage Piles Up

The S&P 500's close at 6,740 is its lowest since mid-December. The simultaneous failure of both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages opens a "technical trapdoor" according to market analysts. Mega-caps Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia all traded lower as investors priced in higher energy costs hitting consumer spending and data center margins.

Energy was the standout. Occidental Petroleum gained over 5% after a double upgrade from Wells Fargo. Chevron added nearly 3%. Boeing and Caterpillar each fell more than 3% on supply chain disruption fears.

PPI data landed slightly soft but was completely overshadowed. Weekly jobless claims came in at 217,000, marginally above expectations, feeding the cooling-labor-market narrative.

Gold: $5,185

Gold April futures opened at $5,185.40 and held steady through the session, up a modest 0.1%. The metal remains stuck between a strong haven bid from the war and dollar strength from Tuesday's clean CPI print (2.4% YoY). Gold has held above $5,050 through every escalation so far. A sustained Brent above $100 should eventually break the stalemate in gold's favor.

Crypto: Quiet Resilience

BTC closed at $69,835, down 1.2% but still defending the $69K floor that has held for over a week. The Fear and Greed Index reads 18 (Extreme Fear), yet price refuses to capitulate. That disconnect between sentiment and price action continues to be one of the more interesting signals in this cycle.

ETH slipped 1.3% to $2,049. DeFi tokens were a rare bright spot, up 1.3% as a sector. Hyperliquid (HYPE) was the notable gainer among larger caps. Pi Coin continued its decline.

Overnight Watch

  • Brent $100: The biggest question is whether oil can hold triple digits into tomorrow's session. Any US Navy escort announcement for the Strait would be the one catalyst that could cool crude.
  • S&P 500 6,700: Next support after today's technical break. A close below 6,700 on Friday would confirm a bearish regime shift.
  • BTC $69,000: Still the line. Holding it through a day where oil hit $100 and equities sold off hard is quietly bullish. A break opens $66,800.
  • Gold $5,200: The resistance level gold needs to clear. A Brent close above $100 on Friday should give gold the push it needs.
  • 10Y yield 5%: If it crosses, expect another leg down in growth stocks.