S&P Closes at a Record as Chips Shrug Off Iran

The US cash session closed with a twist worthy of the week's whipsaw: stocks pushed to a fresh record even as the United States and Iran traded new blows. As flagged in this morning's analysis, reclaiming Monday's record 7,537.43 was the bullish trigger the tape needed, and it cleared it. The S&P 500 rose 0.81 percent to a record 7,543.64, powered by a rebound in semiconductors and a slide in oil, shrugging off a second straight day of Middle East strikes. Here is how the day actually played out.

Stocks Push to a Record Into the Close

Breadth followed the leaders higher. The S&P 500 closed at 7,543.64, up 0.81 percent and above Monday's prior peak, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.30 percent to 26,206.89 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 139.02 points, or 0.27 percent, to 52,487.41. Technology and communication services did the heavy lifting, a near-mirror image of Wednesday, when an oil spike sank the Dow more than 570 points and left the broad index lower. With crude reversing and the chip complex rebounding, the same names that had dragged the tape earlier in the week turned into its engine.

Chips Power the Rebound as Oil Slides

The day belonged to semiconductors. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbed 2.5 percent, led by a 4.5 percent gain in Micron Technology and a 7.6 percent pop in Sandisk, as the memory and storage corner of the market extended a scorching run. The bounce reversed the DeepSeek-driven chip scare that had rattled the group on Tuesday and Wednesday. Helping the mood was energy: WTI crude fell 2.3 percent to $71.82, slipping back below $72 and snapping a two-day rally after Wednesday's 4.4 percent surge. A cooler oil tape eased the inflation worry that had hung over the week, giving rate-sensitive growth names room to run.

PepsiCo Slips as Earnings Season Opens

The unofficial start of Q2 earnings season landed with a soft note. PepsiCo reported adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share, a penny below the $2.21 consensus, even as revenue rose to $24.18 billion and topped the $23.97 billion expected. The revenue beat was not enough to offset a thinner margin picture and a more cautious full-year tone: North American food volume was flat and the North American beverage business saw volume fall about 4 percent. Shares dropped roughly 4 percent in the session, a reminder that with the tape at records the bar for consumer-staples results is high. The report sets a wary backdrop as the big banks prepare to headline earnings next week.

Crypto Stays Sidelined, Gold Firms

Away from equities, the macro havens went their own way. Bitcoin held near $63,233, down about 0.35 percent, staying detached from the equity rally and hovering in the $63,000s it has traded all week, while Ethereum was little changed near $1,748. Crypto has largely ignored the stock rebound, with geopolitics and a cautious risk mood capping any breakout. In metals, gold firmed 0.68 percent to about $4,122, catching a modest safe-haven bid from the renewed Middle East strikes even as stocks rallied, a split that underscores how much of Thursday's equity move was a chip-and-oil story rather than a broad risk-on wave.

After-Hours and Overnight Watch

These are scenarios to watch, not predictions or instructions. The overnight swing factor remains the Strait of Hormuz: the United States struck Iranian targets for a second straight day and Tehran responded by targeting Gulf countries, keeping tanker traffic frozen and the oil premium live even as crude fell on the day. Any headline that traffic is resuming would be the bearish trigger for oil and a further tailwind for stocks, while a strike on export infrastructure would be the bullish trigger for a fresh crude spike that could quickly sour the equity mood. For the S&P 500, the record 7,543.64 close is the new reference zone: holding above it keeps the breakout intact, while a slip back below Monday's 7,537.43 would be the near-term invalidation. For Bitcoin, $63,000 is the level buyers have defended this week; losing it would soften the range. Tomorrow brings more Q2 earnings and another read on whether the chip trade can keep leading.

Thursday's takeaway is a tape resilient enough to make new highs through a live geopolitical flashpoint, so long as oil cooperates and the chip leaders keep bidding. For the week's full schedule see our week ahead preview and our economic calendar, and follow the daily coverage on Market Insights.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Prices are same-day closing or live levels as labeled; levels cited are reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.