Wall Street reopens Monday after the July 4 long weekend with the tape leaning green. S&P 500 E-mini futures trade near 7,549 overnight, up about 0.3 percent, pointing the cash index back toward its June 30 record of 7,499.36, while Nasdaq-100 futures lead, up roughly 0.8 percent. The backdrop is a strong first half: the Dow gained about 8.9 percent, the S&P 500 roughly 9.6 percent and the Nasdaq more than 12 percent, its best first-half run since 2021. Here is what is moving the tape.
Wall Street Reopens With Futures Pointing Higher
US stocks, gold and oil were closed Friday July 3 for the observed Independence Day holiday, so the last cash prints for equities are Thursday July 2 closes: the S&P 500 at 7,483.24, the Dow at a record 52,900.07 and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,832.67. With the cash market shut until Monday's open, the live read comes from futures, and they are firm. Asian shares advanced overnight and US index futures held their gains, with the Nasdaq-100 contract up about 0.8 percent leading a continued rebound in megacap technology after last week's Meta Compute shock rattled the chip trade.
The setup is constructive but not euphoric: prediction markets put the odds of a higher S&P 500 close today near 62 percent, a modest edge rather than a runaway bid. The question for the session is whether post-holiday momentum can carry the cash index through the June 30 record on the first attempt, or whether thin early-week liquidity keeps things choppy.
- ES futures near 7,549 (+0.3%) point the S&P 500 back toward its June 30 record
- Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.8% as the tech rebound extends
- The first half closed strong: S&P +9.6%, Nasdaq +12%, Dow +8.9%
SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100: A Forced-Buying Catalyst
The marquee single-stock event of the week is mechanical. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 before the open on Tuesday July 7, which means index-tracking funds begin buying the stock after today's close. The company qualified under a fast-track framework Nasdaq adopted for large newly public names, becoming eligible after just 15 trading days on the market.
The flows are the story. JPMorgan estimates roughly $4.3 billion in forced passive buying from Nasdaq-100 trackers alone, and once Russell reweighting and broader index funds are included, estimates of total passive demand range as high as $22 billion to $27 billion. The twist is supply: SpaceX enters with a weighting of less than 1 percent, but its publicly tradable float is small relative to its enormous market capitalization, so even a modest index weight can require outsized purchases. That mismatch between mandated demand and thin float is what has traders watching for volatility around the Monday close and Tuesday open.
- SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 before Tuesday's open; passive buying starts after today's close
- JPMorgan sees ~$4.3B in forced Nasdaq-100 buying, up to $22B to $27B across all trackers
- A sub-1% weight meets a small float, the setup that could amplify the move
ISM Services Opens a Data-Light Week
The macro calendar is thin but front-loaded with data pushed back by the holiday. The first test is today's June ISM Services PMI, due 14:00 UTC (prior 50.7, consensus 51.3), delayed a session by the July 4 close. Its prices-paid sub-index is a real-time inflation gauge and the detail most likely to move rate expectations. JOLTS job openings follow Tuesday, then the week's main event lands Wednesday.
That event is the June FOMC minutes, out Wednesday July 8 at 18:00 UTC, the first of the Kevin Warsh era. Markets will parse the text for the vote split and any conditions that would reopen rate cuts, especially after last Thursday's soft June jobs report showed just 57,000 hires versus about 115,000 expected. The rest of the week brings China inflation, US jobless claims and Canada's employment report, but the minutes are the clear swing factor.
- June ISM Services (today, 14:00 UTC) leads off; prices-paid is the inflation tell
- JOLTS Tuesday, then Warsh's first FOMC minutes Wednesday at 18:00 UTC
- Last week's soft 57K jobs print reframes how dovish the minutes could read
Crypto: Bitcoin Holds $63K as XRP Leads
Digital assets carry weekend momentum into the week. Bitcoin is holding above $62,900 after retaking $63,000 over the weekend for the first time in two weeks, fully reversing June's slump, though it is roughly flat on the day. Ethereum sits near $1,770, holding above $1,700 after a roughly 12 percent weekly surge. The standout is XRP, up about 5 percent in 24 hours near $1.17 after climbing from around $1.02, leading the majors as its ETF drew inflows, with the $1.25 area the next reference level analysts flag.
On the supply side, Hyperliquid unlocks about 9.92 million HYPE tokens today, worth roughly $630 million and around 1 percent of supply, released to core contributors who have historically restaked rather than sold. In headlines, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao's proposal to freeze Satoshi Nakamoto's roughly 1.1 million Bitcoin ahead of any quantum-computing threat is drawing debate, while ethical hackers disclosed and helped patch a critical Aptos flaw that could have put around $70 billion at risk.
- Bitcoin holds above $62.9K after the weekend's $63K reclaim; ETH near $1,770
- XRP leads, up ~5% near $1.17 with $1.25 the next reference zone
- Hyperliquid unlocks ~9.92M HYPE (~$630M) today, often restaked rather than sold
Commodities: Gold Steady, Oil Eases
Gold trades near $4,152, up about 0.1 percent and holding comfortably above $4,100, still underpinned by rate-cut demand and last week's soft jobs data. WTI crude eases toward $68.30, down about 0.6 percent, as the Middle East war premium keeps unwinding now that the US-Iran ceasefire is holding and Strait of Hormuz shipping has normalized. The two commodities capture the week's central tension: a market pricing softer growth and a friendlier Fed, with the inflation risk parked in the ISM prices-paid print later today.
- Gold steady near $4,152, holding above $4,100 on rate-cut demand
- WTI eases toward $68.30 as the geopolitical premium unwinds
- The ISM prices-paid reading is the main inflation risk to a calm-week thesis
Scenarios to Watch
These are scenarios to watch, not predictions or instructions. For the S&P 500, the June 30 record of 7,499.36 is the key reference zone on the cash reopen: a clean push above it would confirm the bullish trigger the futures are signaling, while failure to hold it would leave the index rangebound into Wednesday's minutes. The bearish trigger would be a hot ISM prices-paid print that revives inflation worries and firms the dollar. For Bitcoin, $63,000 is the level structural buyers reclaimed over the weekend; holding it keeps the recovery intact, while a slip back below $62,000 would soften the near-term structure. The SpaceX flow is a technical, one-off catalyst concentrated around the Monday close and Tuesday open rather than a fundamental shift.
- S&P 500 7,499.36 is the key reference zone on the cash reopen
- A hot ISM prices-paid print is the main bearish trigger to watch
- For Bitcoin, $63K holding keeps the weekend reclaim intact; below $62K weakens it
The week is about calibration: SpaceX's inclusion tests how much force passive flows can exert on a thin float, and Wednesday's minutes reveal how firm the Fed's resolve really is. For the full schedule see our week ahead preview and our economic calendar, and follow the daily coverage on Market Insights.
ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Prices are live or last-close levels as labeled; scheduled events and consensus figures can change, and levels cited are reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.
