Iran Missiles Spike Oil as the Fed Decides Today

The most consequential week of the quarter has reached its single most important day. The Federal Open Market Committee delivers its interest-rate decision this afternoon at 18:00 UTC, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow, and markets are walking into it against a suddenly noisier backdrop. Overnight, Iran launched a surprise ballistic-missile barrage at US forces in the Middle East that CENTCOM says was fully intercepted, an event that snapped a three-day slide in crude and pushed WTI roughly 5 percent higher back above $83. Layered on top is a fresh semiconductor shock out of Asia that has deepened the chip rout of the past week. This morning Bitcoin trades near $64,400 and gold holds close to $4,050, both a touch softer as caution builds into a live Fed decision. What follows is the full morning scorecard and the road map into the announcement. These are events to watch, not instructions to act on any asset.

For yesterday's setup see our Tuesday morning analysis, and for how markets are framing the decision revisit our week-ahead preview.

The Fed Decision Lands This Afternoon

The gravitational center of the day is the FOMC, which delivers its decision Wednesday, July 29 at 18:00 UTC, with Warsh's press conference half an hour later. It is only the second meeting since Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell, and the crowd overwhelmingly expects a hold. Late last week CME FedWatch odds of the Fed staying at 3.50 to 3.75 percent sat around 64 percent, having fallen from the high-80s a fortnight earlier as the July oil scare that briefly revived hike talk unwound. Softer labor data and a cooler headline CPI argue for patience, while elevated Treasury yields and this morning's oil bounce complicate any dovish lean. Crucially, this meeting carries no updated projections and no dot plot, so the entire signal rests on the wording of the statement and the tone of the presser.

Iran Attack Sends Oil Back Above $83

Energy is the overnight wildcard that has flipped this week's script. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles at US bases in the region, all of which CENTCOM reports were intercepted, and the market reaction was immediate. WTI crude jumped roughly 5 percent back above $83, snapping a three-day decline that had carried it toward the mid $80s on hopes of US-Iran de-escalation. Just a day earlier the war premium was draining out of crude on talk of reopening negotiations; the attack has reintroduced Strait of Hormuz supply risk to the tape overnight. The read-through into the Fed is direct: crude rebounding hours before the decision partially reverses the disinflation tailwind that had firmed the case for a hold, which is exactly why traders are watching the statement's inflation language so closely today.

China Chip Shock Deepens the Semiconductor Rout

The equity story of the week remains the semiconductor selloff, and it took a sharp new leg lower on Tuesday. News that China had begun mass production of homegrown deep-ultraviolet chipmaking tools struck at the heart of the memory-chip supply chain and sent Asian tech reeling. South Korea's KOSPI collapsed more than 10 percent to 6,023.66, its worst session in memory, tripping emergency circuit-breakers twice, with SK Hynix down 14.7 percent and Samsung Electronics off more than 13 percent. The tremor carried straight into US chips, where Nvidia fell about 5 percent, AMD dropped 5.2 percent and Micron lost 2.3 percent, logging a fourth consecutive losing session for the group. It was enough to keep the Nasdaq red even as the rest of the market pushed higher.

Wall Street Splits as the Dow Powers Ahead

The result of these crosscurrents was a split tape on Tuesday, and a familiar one. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 537.24 points, or 1.03 percent, to 52,747.32, powered by strong earnings beats and a rotation out of technology into the economically sensitive corners of the market. The S&P 500 added 0.21 percent to close at 7,428.78, a fresh gain that masked deep divisions beneath the surface, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.22 percent to 24,876.91 under the weight of the chip selloff. The pattern is the same one that has defined the week: cyclicals and value names carrying the indices as investors recoil from the ballooning cost and now the supply fragility of the AI build-out. This morning ES futures sit near flat as the market holds its breath into the decision.

Crypto and Gold Drift Into the Decision

Digital assets are quietly coiled ahead of the Fed. Bitcoin trades near $64,384, off about 0.9 percent on the day, and Ether sits near $1,900, both easing as broad risk appetite cools into a live decision. The dominant driver this week is macro rather than native: a hold with balanced-to-soft language could ease the financial conditions Bitcoin tracks closely, while a hawkish surprise, made more plausible by this morning's oil bounce, would do the opposite. Gold, meanwhile, is holding firm near $4,050 and comfortably above the $4,000 handle, carrying a modest safe-haven bid from the overnight Iran headlines. Live levels and ETF-flow data for the top of the market are visible on the ThriveInMarkets homepage. $64,000 is the near-term reference zone traders are watching; a sustained break below it would weaken the short-term structure, while reclaiming $65,000 would repair it.

Data, Earnings and What to Watch

Beyond the Fed, the calendar stays heavy. The advance reading of second-quarter US GDP lands Thursday alongside weekly jobless claims, and the June PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, arrives Friday. The mega-cap earnings gauntlet also rolls on, with Microsoft reporting after today's close and Apple and Amazon on Thursday, the last of the Magnificent Seven this season, where AI capital-expenditure guidance rather than the headline beat remains the swing factor after Alphabet and Tesla triggered last week's rout. Three broad scenarios frame the hours ahead, none of them a prediction or an instruction to trade. In the relief case, the Fed holds with a soft tone and Microsoft pairs solid numbers with digestible capex, letting stocks steady. In the hawkish-inflation case, a firm statement or the oil bounce keeps rate worries alive. In the geopolitics case, a further escalation in the Gulf overrides the macro narrative entirely. Follow the daily play-by-play on Market Insights and the full schedule on the economic calendar.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Crypto, gold and oil figures are live prints as of 08:00 UTC Wednesday, July 29; the S&P 500 figure is Tuesday's cash-session close with futures quoted separately. Dates and times are scheduled events subject to change. Levels and scenarios cited are technical reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.