If last week set the stage, this is the week the curtain goes up. Over five sessions traders face a genuinely live Federal Reserve decision, the last four Magnificent Seven earnings reports of the quarter, and the two data points the Fed cares about most, all crammed into a 48-hour window that makes this arguably the most consequential stretch of the year. Bitcoin trades near $65,354 this Monday morning and the S&P 500 reopens after Friday's close of 7,411.98, both steadying after a bruising prior week in which fears over artificial-intelligence spending wiped roughly $797 billion off Big Tech in a single session. Bookmark this preview: below is every scheduled catalyst on the docket, day by day, and why each one matters. These are events to watch, not instructions to act on any asset.

For the full story of how we got here, catch up on last week's news roundup and the weekend recap.

The Big One: A Live FOMC Decision

The centre of gravity this week is the Federal Open Market Committee, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday and delivers its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29 at 18:00 UTC, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC. Policymakers are widely expected to hold, but this meeting turned genuinely live only days ago. A midweek spike in Brent crude above $100 on the US-Iran conflict briefly revived talk of a rate hike, with money markets at one point pricing as much as a 35 percent chance of an increase, before oil retreated on diplomacy hopes and pulled some of that hawkish bet back out.

What makes this decision hard to read is what it lacks: there is no updated Summary of Economic Projections and no dot plot at this meeting, so the entire signal rests on the statement's wording and the tone of the press conference. Markets watching for whether June's hawkish language softens will parse every sentence, and with the two most important inflation and growth prints landing in the two days that follow, any hint of the Fed's leaning will be tested almost immediately.

Key Takeaways: The Big One
  • FOMC decision Wednesday, July 29 at 18:00 UTC, with Chair Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC; a hold is widely expected
  • The meeting turned live after a July oil scare briefly pushed hike odds toward 35 percent
  • No dot plot or projections this time, so the statement wording and press-conference tone carry the full signal
  • Watch whether the June hawkish language softens or hardens

Economic Calendar: Day by Day

A dense macro slate frames the Fed, with the heaviest data landing the day after the decision.

  • Monday, July 27: US Durable Goods Orders for June at 12:30 UTC (consensus about +1.6 percent month-on-month versus a prior -4.5 percent), core durable goods around +0.9 percent, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (consensus about -12.0 versus -15.1 prior). A first read on whether business investment steadied into quarter-end.
  • Tuesday, July 28: CB Consumer Confidence for July at 14:00 UTC (consensus around 100.5 versus 100.4) and JOLTS Job Openings for June (consensus about 7.95 million versus 8.14 million). The FOMC's two-day meeting begins. Labour-market softening feeds directly into the rate debate.
  • Wednesday, July 29: the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC is the day's anchor, with earnings after the close.
  • Thursday, July 30: the advance estimate of second-quarter US GDP at 12:30 UTC, which carries the quarterly PCE price deflator inside it, alongside weekly jobless claims. The first hard look at how fast the economy grew last quarter, released less than a day after the Fed speaks.
  • Friday, July 31: the June PCE price index with personal income and spending at 12:30 UTC, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the number its 2 percent target is defined on, plus the second-quarter Employment Cost Index, the Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Month-end rebalancing adds to the flow.
Key Takeaways: Economic Calendar
  • Durable goods Monday, consumer confidence and JOLTS Tuesday set the pre-Fed tone
  • Advance Q2 GDP Thursday lands less than a day after the decision
  • June PCE inflation Friday is the Fed's preferred gauge, the report most likely to reprice the curve
  • Friday also brings the Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Michigan sentiment into a month-end tape
A polished brass desk calendar block on a dark reflective black marble surface under warm amber and orange rim light with soft glowing golden bokeh, symbolising the packed schedule of a Federal Reserve decision, four Magnificent Seven earnings reports and Q2 GDP plus PCE inflation in the trading week of July 27 to 31 2026

Earnings to Watch

After Alphabet and Tesla triggered last week's rout, the market's obsession is no longer the headline beat but the capital-expenditure guidance behind it. Four of the five largest US companies report inside 48 hours:

  • Microsoft (Wednesday, July 29, after close): fiscal Q4 results, with analysts near $4.21 EPS. Azure cloud growth and AI capex guidance are the swing factors for the whole tech tape.
  • Meta Platforms (Wednesday, July 29, after close): reports alongside Arm. After Alphabet lifted its capex guide, Meta's own AI-infrastructure spend will be scrutinised line by line.
  • Apple (Thursday, July 30, after close): iPhone demand, Services growth and any read on China. Less of an AI-capex story, more a consumer-strength read.
  • Amazon (Thursday, July 30, after close): AWS growth and retail margins, with cloud spending again front and centre.
  • Supporting cast: Boeing and Coca-Cola early week, Visa and Mastercard on the payments side, Qualcomm and Ford, and Exxon Mobil and Chevron on Friday to close out the energy majors.
Key Takeaways: Earnings
  • Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday after the close; Apple and Amazon Thursday after the close
  • AI capex guidance, not the headline beat, is the swing factor after last week's $797B mega-cap wipeout
  • Cloud growth at Azure and AWS is the single most-watched metric of the week
  • Visa, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Exxon Mobil and Chevron round out a heavy calendar

Crypto Docket

Crypto's biggest catalysts this week are macro rather than native: a dovish-leaning Fed and a soft PCE print would ease financial conditions that Bitcoin has tracked closely, while a hawkish surprise would do the opposite. On the calendar itself, the standout is Friday's month-end options expiry, when a large notional of Bitcoin and Ether contracts roll off, a recurring source of end-of-month positioning. On the policy front, the CFTC's July 27 comment deadline on a proposal for 24/7 Bitcoin perpetual-futures trading closes today, and the CLARITY Act market-structure bill still faces a narrowing window to clear the Senate before the August recess. Token unlocks across the week total roughly $237 million in scheduled releases, a moderate but not outsized amount of new supply.

Key Takeaways: Crypto
  • Fed and Friday's PCE are crypto's biggest swing factors this week via financial conditions
  • Month-end options expiry Friday rolls off a large Bitcoin and Ether notional
  • The CFTC's 24/7 Bitcoin perpetuals comment deadline closes today; the CLARITY Act window keeps narrowing
  • About $237M in token unlocks are scheduled across the week

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios are worth watching around the twin catalysts of the Fed and Big Tech guidance. None is a prediction or an instruction to trade:

  • The relief case: the Fed holds with a balanced-to-soft tone, Friday's PCE cools, and Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon pair solid numbers with capex guidance the market can stomach. That combination would take the AI-spending fear off the table and let the S&P and Nasdaq attempt to repair last week's damage, with Bitcoin firmer as conditions ease.
  • The hawkish-inflation case: the statement leans hawkish or PCE runs hot, reviving the rate worries that the oil scare planted. Growth and technology valuations tend to wear that first, and crypto would likely soften with broad risk appetite.
  • The capex-shock repeat: even with a benign Fed, a second week of mega-cap guidance that lifts AI spending without a clear revenue payoff could reopen the wound that felled the Magnificent Seven last week. The Nasdaq and the semiconductor complex are the cleanest read-throughs there.
Key Takeaways: Scenarios
  • Relief: soft Fed, cool PCE and digestible capex guidance would let stocks repair last week's damage
  • Hawkish-inflation: a hawkish statement or hot PCE would pressure growth, tech and crypto
  • Capex-shock repeat: another round of AI spend without payoff could reopen the mega-cap wound
  • The Fed and cloud capex guidance are the two hinges the whole week turns on

Track live levels, ETF flows and the full schedule on the ThriveInMarkets homepage and the economic calendar, and follow the daily play-by-play on Market Insights.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. Dates and times are scheduled events subject to change; the Bitcoin price is a live print as of 06:00 UTC Monday and the S&P 500 figure is Friday's cash-session close. Levels and scenarios cited are reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.