Oil Tumbles 6% as Trump Steps Back From Iran

The week opened with a sigh of relief. Over the weekend, President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran and said negotiations with Tehran would resume, a step back from the brink that, together with an OPEC+ decision to raise output, drained the war premium that had built into crude through late July. The result was a sharp reversal in oil and a firmer tone in equity futures, with WTI down about 6 percent and S&P 500 futures up roughly 0.6 percent ahead of a data-heavy week. After Friday's month-end session, covered in our Friday morning analysis, attention now turns to the jobs report and a fresh wave of earnings. This is the Monday scorecard, not an instruction to act on any asset.

Oil's War Premium Drains Away

The clearest move was in crude. West Texas Intermediate fell about 6 percent to near $79.90, with Brent sliding a similar amount back toward the low $80s, as two forces lined up in the same direction. First, the geopolitical de-escalation: Trump's decision to pause a planned attack on Iran and reopen talks removed the immediate threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that had underpinned oil's late-July surge. Second, supply: an OPEC+ agreement to raise output added barrels to a market that was already pricing out the worst-case scenario. Together they unwound the risk premium quickly, a reminder that geopolitically driven spikes tend to deflate as fast as they inflate once the headline risk recedes.

Futures Point Higher After the Weekend News

Equity futures took the de-escalation as a green light. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.6 percent to near 7,563, Nasdaq 100 futures gained a similar amount, and Dow futures firmed roughly half a percent, pointing to a higher open after the S&P closed Friday near 7,524. Lower oil is a tailwind for risk appetite on two counts: it eases the near-term inflation impulse that has kept the Federal Reserve cautious, and it lifts the shadow that a wider Middle East conflict had cast over the growth outlook. The move also builds on the resilience the market showed through late July, when a strong earnings season absorbed a hawkish Fed hold and surging Treasury yields. Whether that momentum holds now depends on the week's data.

A Jobs Report and SpaceX Headline the Week

The calendar is stacked. The centerpiece is Friday's July jobs report, where economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise about 87,500, up from roughly 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent. After a soft prior print, the release is the market's next read on whether the labor market is cooling gently or stalling, and it feeds directly into the debate over the Fed's next move. Earnings pile on top: Palantir, AMD and Eli Lilly report, and SpaceX delivers its first results as a public company on Tuesday, a closely watched debut. With about 71 percent of the S&P 500 already reported and 85 percent of those beating estimates, this week tests whether the strong season can carry the index the rest of the way. Follow the schedule on our economic calendar.

Gold Eases as the Safe-Haven Bid Fades

The flip side of calmer geopolitics showed up in gold. Gold eased to about $4,063, down roughly 0.3 percent, as the safe-haven bid that had supported the metal through the Iran standoff faded alongside the falling oil price. The move is modest, and gold remains historically elevated after its long run, but the direction is telling: when the tail risk of a wider conflict recedes, the assets that were carrying a fear premium give some of it back. A firmer growth outlook and any upward drift in real yields would add to that pressure, while a soft jobs print on Friday could just as easily revive the bid. For now, the metal is taking its cue from the same de-escalation that is pushing oil lower and futures higher.

Crypto Softens and What to Watch

Digital assets were the quiet laggard. Bitcoin trades near $62,700, little changed on the day and holding the low $62,000s, while Ether slipped about 1.4 percent to near $1,838, back below $1,850 and once again trailing Bitcoin. Live levels and ETF-flow data sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage. Three things frame the week, none a prediction or an instruction to trade. First, the durability of the Iran de-escalation: a clean path back to talks keeps oil soft and risk supported, while any breakdown would put the war premium straight back into crude. Second, Friday's jobs report, the week's single biggest macro catalyst for the rate outlook. Third, the earnings wave, with SpaceX's debut and the AMD and Palantir prints testing whether the season's strength has more room to run. Follow the play-by-play on Market Insights.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. The S&P 500 figure is the Friday, July 31 cash-session close with ES futures noted as overnight; crypto, gold and oil figures are live prints as of 08:00 UTC Monday, August 3. Weekend geopolitical developments were still evolving at publication. Dates and times are scheduled events subject to change. Levels and scenarios cited are technical reference points, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.