FOMC Day Opens With Oil Off Tuesday's $106 High

As flagged in last night's evening review, the S&P 500 closed 7,585.73, West Texas Intermediate last printed about 106 dollars after a 106.75 high, and Wednesday's FOMC was the next tape. Overnight, crude faded. West Texas Intermediate is near 104.04 dollars. Overnight E-mini September futures are near 7,604. Chair Kevin Warsh's decision is 18:00 UTC, press conference at 18:30 UTC. Catch up: week-ahead note. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.

The Setup: Overnight ES Near 7,604

The S&P 500's last cash print remains Tuesday's 7,585.73, down 0.45 percent (CNBC, FRED, Yahoo Finance). The Nasdaq Composite closed 25,981.57. The Dow closed 52,093.11. US cash has not opened. Figures below are Tuesday close plus overnight futures. E-mini S&P 500 September futures are near 7,604 as of about 08:00 UTC, labeled overnight futures (MarketWatch 7,603.75; WSJ 7,606.25). Range 7,592.25 to 7,611.00. Nasdaq-100 futures are up about 0.3 percent. Dow futures are up about 0.2 percent. The 10-year tagged 5.041 percent on Tuesday, then sat near 4.99 percent overnight (MarketWatch 4.994 percent at 02:22 EDT). CME FedWatch assigns about a 92.4 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike today to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the first increase since mid-2023 (Reuters, CNBC).

Story of the Day: Warsh's First Hike Decision

The two-day FOMC ends today. The statement is due at 18:00 UTC. Chair Kevin Warsh holds the press conference at 18:30 UTC. This is a projections meeting, so the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot print with the decision. A 25-basis-point move to 3.75 to 4.00 percent is about 92 percent priced. The question is what Warsh says about the path after today, not whether the committee hikes. JPMorgan, cited by Reuters, called the consensus a 25-basis-point hike with little forward guidance. A hawkish read (higher dots, a willingness to tighten again) would keep the dollar bid and test gold's overnight bounce.

Oil Fades to $104 After Tuesday's $106.75 High

West Texas Intermediate is near 104.04 dollars (WSJ 104.04 at 02:59 EDT, down 1.69 percent; Trading Economics about 104.24), a fade from Tuesday's settlement of 105.83 and Tuesday's 106.75 high. Overnight range 104.02 to 105.63. Brent is near 107.45 to 107.82 dollars (WSJ 107.45; Reuters 107.82). API data cited by Reuters showed US crude inventories rose 7.1 million barrels in the week ended September 11, versus a poll looking for a 1.6 million draw.

The East-West pipeline remains offline after Friday's Houthi strike. Shipping sources told Reuters that loadings at Yanbu, which has been rerouting about 4 million barrels a day, are suspended, and some late-September cargoes to Europe were cancelled. Repair estimates still range from days to five or six weeks. Traders watching Tuesday's 106.75 high and the 104.04 last print. A reclaim of 106.75 would restore the strike premium into Warsh. A slip through 104, then Monday's 101.92, would fade it. These are observations, not instructions.

Asia: Kospi Leads a Tentative Bounce

MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan snapped a four-day losing streak and last printed about 0.2 to 0.5 percent higher (Reuters). South Korea's Kospi rose 1.3 percent to 6,711.62 (Associated Press). Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.4 percent to 63,721.89. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged 0.1 percent to 24,700.62. The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.6 percent to 3,886.48. European futures were modestly higher into the London open (Morningstar). Dollar index sat near a two-week high around 99.60 to 99.66 (Reuters). Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

Gold Reclaims $4,331; Bitcoin Holds $76,016

Spot gold is near 4,331 dollars (TradingView 4,332.555 as of September 16; Kitco 4,330.70 at 01:53 ET; CNBC 4,328.39 at 0310 GMT), a bounce from Tuesday's last print near 4,296. Kitco's range was about 4,275 to 4,342. Friday's close near 4,349 remains unrepaired. Traders watching 4,331 then Friday's 4,349 as the repair map. A slide through Tuesday's area around 4,275 would resume last week's fade. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

Bitcoin is near 76,016 dollars (TradingView 76,016; CoinMarketCap about 75,746), a hold versus Tuesday's last print near 76,004 after the Senate failed to invoke cloture on the Clarity Act. Tuesday's session low near 74,910 still stands. The 80,000 reclaim still did not print. Ether is near 2,400 dollars (TradingView 2,399.6; CoinMarketCap about 2,395). BTC bullish trigger remains a reclaim of 80,000 dollars. Bearish trigger: a hold through 75,000. These are reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: Retail Sales, Then the FOMC

US cash opens at 13:30 UTC. Before that, US retail sales print at 12:30 UTC. Then the FOMC at 18:00 UTC with Warsh at 18:30 UTC. Lennar reports after the close. Friday is the Bank of Japan. Docket: calendar.

Three scenarios frame the session, not a recommendation. In a contained-oil path, WTI holds the fade through 104 and ES leans on 7,585.73 into the statement. In a hot-oil path, a reclaim of Tuesday's 106.75 WTI high would add another inflation impulse into Warsh. In a hawkish-hike path, higher dots would keep the 10-year bid through 5.04 percent and test 7,572.69. Traders watching 7,585.73 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Monday's 7,619.98, then Friday's 7,656.98. Bearish trigger: a slide through Tuesday's 7,572.69 low.

For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Tuesday, September 15, 2026; gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on September 16, 2026.