Oil Reclaims $103 Into FOMC as Yields Hold Near 5%

As flagged in last night's evening review, the S&P 500 closed 7,619.98, West Texas Intermediate faded to about 101.92 dollars after a 104.95 high, and Wednesday's FOMC was the next tape. Overnight, crude took the hot-oil path back. West Texas Intermediate is near 103.28 dollars. Overnight E-mini September futures are near 7,598 against Monday's cash close. The two-day FOMC opens today. Clarity Act cloture is 18:15 UTC. Catch up: week-ahead note. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.

The Setup: Overnight ES Near 7,598

The S&P 500's last cash print remains Monday's 7,619.98, down 0.48 percent (CNBC, FRED, MarketWatch). The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,186.41. The Dow closed 52,421.20. US cash has not opened. Figures below are Monday close plus overnight futures. E-mini S&P 500 September futures are near 7,598 as of about 08:00 UTC, labeled overnight futures (WSJ 7,598.00; MarketWatch 7,598.50). Range 7,595.75 to 7,633.25. Monday's September settlement was 7,625.00. Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 0.35 percent. Dow futures are down about 0.40 percent (TipRanks). The 10-year tagged 5.012 percent on Monday and sat near 5.02 percent overnight. CME FedWatch assigns about a 90 to 93 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the first increase since mid-2023.

Story of the Day: Oil Reclaims $103 Into FOMC

West Texas Intermediate is near 103.28 dollars (Investing.com about 103.28; WSJ 103.19 at 03:35 ET, up 1.78 percent; TipRanks about 103.43), a bounce from Monday's last print near 101.92 and still below Monday's 104.95 high. Friday's 100.05 settlement held. Brent is near 107.49 to 108.21 dollars (WSJ 107.49; TipRanks 108.21).

The East-West pipeline remains offline after last week's drone damage. Two regional officials told the Associated Press the line will mostly be out of service for weeks. TipRanks cited fresh attacks in the Gulf overnight. Gulf-Iran talks stay postponed. Higher crude is the inflation impulse into a Fed meeting that is already about 92 percent priced to hike. Traders watching Monday's 104.95 high and the 101.92 last print. A reclaim of 104.95 would restore the strike premium. A slip back through 101.92, then Friday's 100.05, would fade it. These are observations, not instructions.

Asia and Data: SoftBank Recovers, China IP Beats

Japan's Nikkei reversed an early bounce. Associated Press had it up 0.8 percent to 63,993.22 in morning trade, with SoftBank Group up more than 8 percent after Monday's 11 percent drop. Reuters later had the Nikkei only 0.19 percent higher. South Korea's Kospi was little changed near 6,681. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2 percent to 24,879.69. China's 02:00 UTC print was mixed. Industrial production rose 5.2 percent year on year in August, above the 4.8 percent Reuters poll. Retail sales rose only 0.4 percent, below 0.8 percent expected. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2 percent in the first eight months. UK labour at 06:00 UTC held unemployment at 4.9 percent (expected 5.0 percent), with total pay cooling to 3.9 percent from 4.2 percent and vacancies near 702,000, the lowest since early 2021.

Gold Holds $4,288 Into a 92% Hike Strip

Spot gold is near 4,288 dollars (TradingView 4,287.565 as of September 15; Kitco 4,283.60 at 03:41 ET). That is a hold versus Monday's last print near 4,288, and still a fade from Friday's close near 4,349. Monday's range was about 4,254 to 4,355, a more-than-one-month low on the session according to CNBC. A 10-year near 5 percent and a 92 percent hike strip did the work. Traders watching 4,288 then Friday's 4,349 as the repair map. A slide through Monday's 4,254 low would resume last week's fade. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

Crypto: Bitcoin Fades to $77,263 Ahead of Clarity Act Cloture

Bitcoin is near 77,263 dollars (TradingView 77,263 as of 08:00 UTC; CoinMarketCap about 77,280), a fade from Monday's last print near 79,039 and still below 80,000. Ether is near 2,482 dollars (TradingView 2,482.1). Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage. The Senate votes today at 18:15 UTC on cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, the Clarity Act. It needs 60 votes. It is not final passage. Bullish trigger remains a reclaim of 80,000 dollars. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: Clarity Act, Then Wednesday FOMC

US cash opens at 13:30 UTC. The Senate votes at 18:15 UTC on Clarity Act cloture. Wednesday is US retail sales at 12:30 UTC, then the FOMC at 18:00 UTC with Chair Kevin Warsh at 18:30 UTC. Docket: calendar.

Three scenarios frame the session, not a recommendation. In a contained-oil path, WTI slips back through Monday's 101.92 last print and ES leans on 7,619.98. In a hot-oil path, a reclaim of Monday's 104.95 WTI high, or Brent through 108, would add another inflation impulse into Wednesday. In an AI-safety path, semiconductor weakness from Monday's 5 to 6 percent gauge drop persists into the US cash open. Traders watching 7,619.98 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Friday's 7,656.98, then 7,673.52. Bearish trigger: a slide through Monday's 7,592.28 low.

For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Monday, September 14, 2026; gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on September 15, 2026. China and UK prints are Tuesday, September 15, 2026.