Oil Holds $85 as Bond Yields Hit Overnight Futures

The overnight tape is paying for Monday's oil spike and a fresh lift in long-end yields. As mapped in Monday's evening review, the S&P 500 closed at 7,745.06 after West Texas Intermediate jumped toward 84.90 dollars. That crude bid has not faded. WTI is near 85.30 dollars, a third session higher, after the interim US-Iran memorandum expired Monday and President Trump said he was not interested in extending it. Overnight E-mini futures are softer near 7,732. The docket sits in this week's week-ahead note. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.

The Setup: Futures Fade After Monday's Oil-Led Drop

Cash is still shut at this hour, so treat the S&P reference as Monday's close plus a softer overnight futures print. The S&P 500 finished Monday at 7,745.06, down 0.52 percent from Friday's 7,785.76, opening at 7,790.68 and printing a low of 7,744.88. Yahoo Finance, CNBC and MarketWatch all carried the same close. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,644.91. The Dow closed at 53,459.78. E-mini S&P 500 futures are near 7,732 as of about 07:50 UTC, down about 0.5 percent from the 7,768.75 settlement, labeled here as overnight futures. Nasdaq-100 futures are weaker, down about 0.9 percent near 29,837. Home Depot reports before the open. Reddit joins the S&P 500 today, replacing AvalonBay.

Story of the Day: Oil Holds $85 as Peace Hopes Fade

The tape's cleanest move is still in crude. West Texas Intermediate is near 85.30 dollars, up from Monday's 84.50 settlement and the ~84.90 print in Monday evening's note. Trading Economics showed 85.27 dollars; MarketWatch printed 85.55 dollars at 02:41 Eastern. Brent is near 91.22 dollars. Reuters and CNBC both dated the third-session climb to Tuesday: Iran said it would adopt a more offensive stance, and Washington ruled out extending the June memorandum that expired Monday. Iran and Oman are still talking about managing Hormuz traffic, but the United States is not in those talks. EIA inventories land Wednesday. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

The Other Overnight Hit: Yields Lift Again

Oil is not the only thing leaning on the overnight bid. Trading Economics said US stock futures declined as the 10-year yield climbed toward 4.75 percent, approaching its highest since January 2025, while the 30-year rose to its highest since 2007, extending Monday evening's 4.73 percent and 5.31 percent prints. A crude spike that sticks, plus a long-end that will not sit still, complicates the September hold the market has been pricing. Ten of 11 S&P sectors finished lower on Monday, led by communication services, consumer staples and financials. Energy was the sole sector gainer. The VIX is near 15.90.

Gold Eases Back Under $4,400

The metal is giving back Monday's extension. Spot gold is near 4,398 dollars, just under the 4,400 shelf that Monday morning's analysis flagged as reclaimed near 4,405. TradingView printed 4,399.10 dollars as of August 18. Trading Economics had 4,395.83 dollars, down 0.46 percent. Kitco's bid was 4,401.50 dollars at 03:31 New York. Last week's CPI, PPI, payrolls and retail sales still lean against a September hike, and funds futures still price roughly a one-third chance of an increase. Traders watching 4,419 and last week's 4,449 as overhead. The first support shelf is Friday's 4,376. A break of 4,340 would weaken the reclaim. These are observations, not instructions.

Crypto: Bitcoin Holds the $64,000 Reclaim

Digital assets are ignoring the equity fade. Bitcoin is near 64,200 dollars, holding the 64,000 shelf Monday evening's note said had been reclaimed from this morning's 63,490 box. TradingView printed 64,282, CoinMarketCap about 64,190 and Yahoo 64,140 around 08:00 UTC. Ether is near 1,898 dollars, little changed from Monday evening's 1,907. Thursday's KAITO unlock, about 13.5 percent of market cap, remains the week's largest scheduled supply. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin is a hold above 64,000 dollars. Bearish trigger: a slip back through 62,800. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: Home Depot, Reddit and Housing Starts

Tuesday's calendar is retail, housing and an index add. Home Depot reports before the open, with the conference call at 13:00 UTC; consensus sits near 4.73 dollars of earnings on about 4.4 percent sales growth after Friday's 0.6 percent retail-sales drop. US housing starts land at 12:30 UTC, seen near 1.36 million after June's 1.427 million. Reddit joins the S&P 500 this morning, replacing AvalonBay. Lowe's and Target report Wednesday; Walmart Thursday. The week's pivot is still Wednesday's FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC. Bullish trigger for the S&P: a reclaim of Friday's 7,785.76, then Thursday's 7,798.99 record. Bearish trigger: a slide through Monday's low of 7,744.88. Invalidation of the weekly-gain tone remains a break of 7,728.

For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The S&P 500 cash figure is Monday, August 17, 2026's close; E-mini futures, gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on August 18, 2026.