China PMI 50.1 Ends Two-Month Factory Contraction

As flagged in Tuesday's evening review, the S&P 500 closed 7,670.84, WTI last printed about 89.07 dollars after a 94.74 high, gold about 4,174 dollars, and Bitcoin about 83,591 dollars. Overnight the cash tape is shut. China's official manufacturing PMI printed 50.1, ending two months of contraction. Overnight E-mini December futures are near 7,747. WTI is near 89.65 dollars. Spot gold last printed about 4,180 dollars. Bitcoin is near 83,225 dollars. August PCE prints at 12:30 UTC. US cash opens 13:30 UTC. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction. Docket: week ahead.

The Setup: Overnight ES Near 7,747

The S&P 500's last cash print remains Tuesday's 7,670.84, down 0.2 percent (Associated Press, GuruFocus). Range 7,653.55 to 7,699.60, a miss of Monday's 7,683.69, just above Monday's 7,666.60 low. The August 13 record at 7,816.70 remains unrepaired. The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,797.54 (-0.1%). The Dow closed 51,349.92 (-0.3%). E-mini December futures are near 7,747, labeled overnight futures (MarketWatch 7,746.50 from a 7,732.00 settlement; GuruFocus 7,747.75). Overnight range about 7,738 to 7,756. The 10-year is near 5.25 percent after a 5.293 percent high, the highest since 2007. John Williams said there is no urgency for the next hike and that one further adjustment may be appropriate late this year. CME FedWatch puts October hike odds near 47 percent and December near 92 percent (Reuters). Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Monday's 7,683.69 toward Friday's 7,743.41. Bearish trigger: a slide through Monday's 7,666.60 low, then 7,650.50.

Story of the Day: China PMI Prints 50.1

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, matching the Reuters median and ending two months of contraction (Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics). Production climbed 1.3 points to 51.7. New orders held at 50.5. High-tech manufacturing printed 52.5 and equipment manufacturing 51.0 (China Daily). The non-manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.2. The composite PMI rose to 50.7, its highest this year. RatingDog's private manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5 (Nikkei Asia). Small firms stayed below 50. Mainland markets shut Thursday for National Day and stay closed through Golden Week. The print lands hours before August PCE, the last Fed-preferred inflation reading before the October 27-28 FOMC.

Oil Holds Near $89 After Tuesday's Unwind

West Texas Intermediate November futures last printed about 89.65 dollars (MarketWatch 89.65 at 1:57 a.m. EDT, up 0.30 percent from Tuesday's 89.38 settlement; Associated Press 89.47). Overnight range 88.58 to 89.89. That holds Tuesday's fade from a 94.74 high after Saudi Arabia restored about half the East-West pipeline, around 3.5 million barrels a day. Brent is near 103.09 dollars (Associated Press). Mediators are still working a Hormuz path after President Trump rejected last week's seven-day proposal. A hold of Tuesday's 89.38 settlement toward 92.60 would restore more of last week's premium. A slip through today's 88.58 low would extend the unwind.

Asia: Nikkei Jumps 2.1%

The Nikkei 225 last printed about 66,882, up 2.1 percent in afternoon trade (Associated Press 66,882.34), a rebound from Tuesday's about 65,115 to 65,481. SoftBank Group, which invests in OpenAI, surged more than 6 percent. Renesas and Rohm also gained. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 last printed about 8,806, up 1.1 percent. The Hang Seng last printed about 24,586, up 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite last printed about 3,848, up 0.5 percent. The Kospi last printed about 6,861, down 0.1 percent after fading an early gain; SK hynix rose about 1.1 percent, Samsung Electronics fell about 0.8 percent (Aju Press). Catch up: calendar.

Crypto Check: Bitcoin Near $83,225

Bitcoin is near 83,225 dollars (TradingView 83,225, down 0.26 percent over 24 hours). CoinMarketCap's Wednesday session ran about 83,213 to 83,420, a fade from Tuesday evening's about 83,591 and Tuesday morning's about 83,940. That still holds the 82,000 reference and sits short of Sunday's about 84,835. Ether is near 2,670 dollars (TradingView 2,670.0), a fade from Tuesday's about 2,691. Live levels: homepage. BTC bullish trigger: a hold of 83,225 dollars, then Sunday's 84,835. Bearish trigger: a slip through 82,000, then 80,000.

What's Next: PCE, Micron, Then Payrolls

US cash opens at 13:30 UTC. August PCE prints at 12:30 UTC. Consensus sits around 0.3 percent month over month for core and about 3.4 percent year over year, up from July's 3.3 percent, with headline near 3.7 percent. That is the last Fed-preferred inflation print before the October 27-28 FOMC. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close; Street sits near 31.50 dollars EPS and about 50 billion dollars of revenue. After hours Tuesday the name last printed about 1,075.50 dollars versus a 1,065.08 close. Thursday is ISM and Nike. China is shut. Friday is payrolls. Full docket: week ahead. Three scenarios frame the session, not a recommendation. In a contained-yields path, PCE holds near 3.4 percent core and ES leans on 7,670.84. In a hot-print path, a core surprise would push the 10-year back through 5.29 percent and test Monday's 7,666.60 low. In a repair path, a soft PCE would give gold a route through 4,200 and let ES reclaim 7,683.69. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,683.69 toward 7,743.41. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,666.60, then 7,650.50.

For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Tuesday, September 29, 2026; gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on September 30, 2026.