Bookmark this one. Last week was a two-month Trump-Xi truce and the first S&P winning week in three. This week is the calendar: Friday's payrolls, Wednesday's PCE, and Tuesday's RBA decision. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41; E-mini December futures are near 7,775. Bitcoin is near 83,150 dollars. Catch up on last week here: weekly markets roundup.

The Big One: Friday Payrolls Set the October Path

The week pivots on Friday, October 2, at 12:30 UTC. The Employment Situation is the last hard labor print before the October 28 FOMC. Desks cluster near +90,000 to +100,000 payrolls after August's +162,000. Unemployment is seen at 4.1 percent. Wages are seen at +0.3 percent again.

CME FedWatch left Friday around 64 to 66 percent for another 25-basis-point hike on October 28, after Chair Kevin Warsh took the funds range to 3.75-4.00 percent. A repeat of August, near +160,000 with wages at +0.4 percent, would push those odds through 70 percent. A print near +70,000, or 4.3 percent unemployment, would say the hike is landing on a cooling labor market. Mechanics: NFP guide. JOLTS, ADP, and claims set the positioning. China shuts Thursday. Docket: calendar.

Key Takeaways: The Big One
  • Friday 12:30 UTC: payrolls seen about +90K to +100K after August's +162K
  • Unemployment seen at 4.1%; wages seen at +0.3% on the month
  • October 28 hike odds about 64-66%; JOLTS, ADP, and claims set the positioning

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Consensus versus prior. Not monthly OpEx (that is October 16). Friday is weekly expiry. Wednesday is quarter-end. Barkin speaks Monday; Goolsbee and Williams speak Tuesday before PCE.

  • Monday, Sep 28: China industrial profits 01:30 UTC. Lagarde 13:30 UTC. Barkin 17:30 UTC. US cash opens 13:30 UTC.
  • Tuesday, Sep 29: RBA 04:30 UTC, 25bp to 4.60 percent about 90 percent priced; Bullock at 05:30 UTC. Spain flash CPI 07:00 UTC, 4.7 percent after 4.3 percent. Conference Board 14:00 UTC, 90.0 after 89.4. JOLTS 14:00 UTC, 7.20 million after 7.27 million.
  • Wednesday, Sep 30: Australia CPI 01:30 UTC. China PMI 01:30 UTC, manufacturing 50.1 after 49.8. Germany flash CPI about 12:00 UTC. ADP 12:15 UTC, about +70,000 after +38,000. August PCE 12:30 UTC with Q2 GDP: headline +0.4 percent and 3.7 percent on the year, core +0.3 percent and 3.3 percent after July's +0.2 percent core. GDP seen unrevised at +1.5 percent. EIA crude 14:30 UTC. BoJ Tankan 23:50 UTC.
  • Thursday, Oct 1: China National Day; onshore markets shut through at least October 5. Claims 12:30 UTC, about 200,000 after 197,000. ISM manufacturing 14:00 UTC, 55.0 after 54.6, prices paid near 70 after 71.1. Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC, ex-fresh food about +2.4 percent after +1.8 percent.
  • Friday, Oct 2: Eurozone HICP flash 09:00 UTC, about +3.5 percent after 3.3 percent, core about +2.6 percent after 2.4 percent. Payrolls 12:30 UTC. Weekly OpEx, not monthly.

A 0.4 percent core PCE on Wednesday would reprice October odds before Friday. CPI mechanics: CPI guide.

Key Takeaways: The Calendar
  • Tuesday 04:30 UTC: RBA, 25bp to 4.60% about 90% priced; Bullock at 05:30 UTC
  • Wednesday 12:30 UTC: August PCE, core seen +0.3% on the month and 3.3% on the year
  • Thursday 14:00 UTC: ISM 55.0 after 54.6; prices paid near 70 after 71.1. Friday 12:30 UTC: payrolls; eurozone HICP 09:00 UTC, about 3.5% after 3.3%
A brass fountain pen with a gold nib rests on dark reflective marble under warm amber rim light, used as the ThriveInMarkets week-ahead inline image for September 28 to October 2 2026, when Friday payrolls, Wednesday PCE, and Tuesday's RBA decision fill the calendar into the October 28 FOMC

Earnings to Watch

  • Tuesday before the open: Carnival, the cruise print. CarMax, about 0.72 dollars EPS, the used-car and credit read.
  • Wednesday after the close: Micron, about 31.50 dollars EPS on about 50.8 billion of revenue. High-bandwidth memory and gross margin will move the Nasdaq the same evening as PCE. Jabil reports before the open, about 4.06 dollars EPS.
  • Thursday before the open: Accenture, about 3.18 dollars EPS on about 18.0 billion. Bookings are the AI-demand read after Micron.
  • Thursday after the close: Nike, about 0.44 dollars EPS on about 11.3 billion, at about 20:15 UTC. Greater China and margin are the lines. Tesla deliveries are due around Thursday and Friday.
Key Takeaways: Earnings
  • Micron Wednesday after the close, ~$31.50 EPS and ~$50.8B; HBM and margin are the tell
  • Nike Thursday after the close, ~$0.44 EPS and ~$11.3B; China and margin after the S&P 100 exit
  • Accenture Thursday before the open, ~$3.18 EPS; Carnival and CarMax Tuesday before the open

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 83,150 dollars (TradingView 83,207; CoinMarketCap 83,154), a fade from Sunday's about 84,835. Live levels: homepage. No spot-ETF deadline this week. Korea Blockchain Week opens Tuesday. DoubleZero (2Z) unlocks about 47 percent of circulating supply on Friday, about 114 million dollars. Sui unlocks about 16.7 million dollars on Thursday. Ethena unlocks about 11 million dollars on Friday.

Key Takeaways: Crypto
  • Bitcoin ~$83,150, a fade from Sunday's ~$84,835; 24h range about $82,722-$85,126
  • Friday: DoubleZero unlocks ~47% of circulating supply, about $114M
  • Thursday: Sui about $16.7M; Friday Ethena about $11M. No spot-ETF deadline; Korea Blockchain Week opens Tuesday

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a hot-labor path, payrolls print above +150,000 or wages print +0.4 percent, especially if core PCE is also +0.4 percent. October hike odds would jump. In an in-line path, PCE core near +0.3 percent, ISM near 55, and payrolls near +100,000 would leave the 64 to 66 percent October odds intact. In a cooling path, payrolls below +50,000 or unemployment at 4.3 percent, or a 0.2 percent core PCE, would fade those odds into a China-holiday Friday. Traders watching 7,743.41 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a hold of 7,743.41 toward last Monday's 7,764.70, then the August 13 record at 7,816.70. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,693.08 low, then 7,650.50. For Bitcoin, a hold of 83,150 dollars then Sunday's 84,835 is the bullish trigger; a slip through 82,000, then 80,000, is the bearish one.

Key Takeaways: The Week Ahead
  • A hot payrolls or PCE print would lift October odds through 70% and lean the dollar on 7,743.41
  • An in-line cluster (core PCE +0.3%, payrolls ~+100K, ISM 55) would leave 64-66% October odds intact
  • A cooling print would fade those odds into a China-holiday Friday. S&P bullish trigger: hold 7,743.41 then 7,764.70; bearish: a slide through 7,693.08

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. S&P cash is Friday, September 25, 2026's close; E-mini futures and Bitcoin are live as of 06:00 UTC on September 28, 2026.