Semana del 17 de agosto de 2026

The week after July CPI printed exactly on consensus and retail sales slumped 0.6% is about reading the July 29 FOMC minutes against a consumer that just cracked. Three regional presidents -- Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan -- dissented for a 25bp hike at that meeting, the first three-way hawkish split since 2016, while Chair Warsh left the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and offered no forward guidance. Wednesday's minutes at 18:00 UTC will show how far that hawkish sympathy ran beyond the three named votes; markets currently price only about a one-third chance of a September hike after the -23K payrolls print and the soft inflation sequence. The data flow around those minutes is heavy: China activity and Canadian CPI on Monday, the UK labour report Tuesday, UK CPI Wednesday (expected to rebound to 2.9% on the Ofgem cap), the PBoC LPR hold and Australian jobs Thursday, then Friday's global flash PMIs. Retail earnings -- Home Depot Tuesday, Target and Lowe's Wednesday, Walmart Thursday -- are the consumer cross-check after Friday's sales miss. Jackson Hole opens the following Thursday, so this week's tape is the last clean data window before Chair Warsh's first symposium speech.