Hot US inflation on Tuesday pushed traders to price a December Fed rate hike, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent while gold and Bitcoin stayed under pressure. As flagged in yesterday's analysis, CPI was the day's main test.
Prices as of 06:30 UTC.
- October CPI rose 0.4 percent against 0.3 percent expected, so the Fed looks more likely to keep tightening.
- Two-year Treasury yields jumped 21 basis points, which weighed on gold, tech stocks and crypto.
- Oil is bouncing today after new attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, so energy is a risk for inflation too.
Stocks: Hot CPI Ends Monday's Rally
The S&P 500 closed at 7,521, halting a two-day gain, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.6 percent. Nvidia fell 5.5 percent, which dragged on chip names. Fed futures now show about a 92 percent chance of a December hike.
Asia was mixed this morning. South Korea's Kospi rose about 1.9 percent as chip stocks rebounded and Japan's Nikkei added 1.2 percent, while Hong Kong slipped 0.9 percent. Overnight index futures pointed lower in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong before the open.
Scenarios to watch: a close back above 7,550, Monday's level, would show buyers absorbed the CPI shock, while a slide under Tuesday's low would extend it.
- Tuesday ended a two-day rally on hotter inflation.
- Waller backed a 25 basis point hike in December and left the door open to 50.
- Nvidia's results next week are the next big test for AI stocks.
Gold: Rate Fears Outweigh Safe-Haven Demand
Gold fell as much as 2.8 percent on Tuesday and traded below $4,030 as yields and the dollar jumped. It has steadied near $4,055 today, up 0.1 percent.
Higher rate expectations raise the appeal of yield-bearing assets over gold, which pays nothing. The dollar rose about 0.5 percent after the CPI print.
Scenarios to watch: a hold above $4,030 keeps Tuesday's low intact, while a drop under $3,900 would weaken the recovery structure.
- Gold reacts more to real yields than to headlines right now.
- The Treasury market is closed today for Veterans Day, so yield moves arrive later.
Bitcoin: ETF Outflows Add to the Pressure
Bitcoin trades near $73,834, down 1.6 percent in 24 hours, and Ether is down 3.3 percent near $2,066. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned negative, and BlackRock's IBIT shed roughly 19,000 BTC in November.
Token unlocks for Pump.fun and Allora land at 12:44 UTC, which could add supply on a thin holiday session.
Scenarios to watch: a hold above $73,000 keeps the range intact, while a break lower would put the next support in focus.
- Bitcoin is trading with risk assets and rate expectations, not as a hedge.
- ETF outflows are the signal to follow after a hot CPI print.
Oil: Hormuz Attacks Revive Supply Fears
WTI rose 0.7 percent to $86.70 and Brent gained about 1 percent to $92.50 after reports of attacks on a Saudi pipeline and a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil had fallen below $90 on Tuesday when Trump signalled less military action against Iran.
OPEC publishes its monthly report at 10:00 UTC, the first official read on demand since the December quota hold.
Scenarios to watch: a demand upgrade could lift WTI toward $90, while a demand cut would push it back under $85.
- Headlines on Iran and Hormuz are swinging oil day to day.
- Delayed EIA inventories now print on Thursday.
What's Next: A Holiday Session With Data Gaps
German final October CPI is due at 07:00 UTC and is expected to confirm the flash reading of 2.8 percent a year. OPEC's report follows at 10:00 UTC. US stocks are open today, but the bond market is shut.
Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves, so the CPI reaction may not be settled until Treasuries reopen on Thursday.
- 07:00 UTC: German CPI final.
- 10:00 UTC: OPEC monthly report.
- 12:44 UTC: Pump.fun and Allora token unlocks.
This is market commentary, not investment advice. ThriveInMarkets is based in Cyprus and is not a licensed investment adviser.