The Federal Reserve held interest rates as the S&P 500 rose. As flagged in this morning's analysis, as of 20:00 UTC those index prints remain intraday, with US cash still open until 16:00 New York; overnight S&P 500 futures near 7,764 faded once cash opened against Tuesday's close of 7,722.60.
The Close: S&P Holds a Modest Gain While Cash Remains Open
The S&P 500 last printed about 7,737, up 0.19 percent from Tuesday's 7,722.60 (Yahoo at 19:42 UTC; CNBC 7,739). Range 7,718.37 to 7,758.43. This morning's bullish reclaim at Tuesday's high of 7,736.24 was taken on the session high; October 6's 7,818.93 record close remains unrepaired. The Nasdaq Composite last printed about 26,494, little changed against Tuesday's 26,477.81. The Nasdaq-100 last printed about 29,753, up 0.34 percent, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index last printed about 11,650, up 1.5 percent. The Dow last printed about 52,464, up 0.16 percent. The VIX last sat at 17.11 against Tuesday's 17.52. S&P bullish trigger: a hold through the session high at 7,758.43, then the October 6 record close at 7,818.93. Bearish trigger: a fade through the session low at 7,718.37, then Tuesday's 7,677.16.
- S&P about 7,737 (+0.19%), labeled intraday; morning reclaim 7,736.24 taken (high 7,758.43)
- Nasdaq about 26,494, little changed; semiconductors about +1.5%
- Dow about 52,464 (+0.16%); Oct 6 record 7,818.93 unrepaired
- S&P bullish trigger: hold 7,758.43 then 7,818.93; bearish: 7,718.37, then 7,677.16
Story of the Day: The Fed Holds, With Two Votes for a Hike
The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 10-2 vote, the hold this morning treated as the base case after September's hike. Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase, Cook's first policy dissent (Federal Reserve). The statement upgraded activity to a strong pace and said inflation remains elevated. Chair Kevin Warsh, at the 18:30 UTC press conference, called the debate a "family fight" and said price stability has not been delivered yet. He also said one of 2027's eight meetings will be strategy-only, leaving seven rate votes next year and six in 2028 (New York Times). The 10-year yield last sat about 5.045 percent and the 30-year about 5.361 percent, both up about 5 to 6 basis points, under the 10 basis-point bar. Scenarios to watch: a patient hold that leaves December open, or a hawkish follow-through if incoming inflation data stay elevated. None of this is a recommendation.
- Hold at 3.75-4.00% on a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack preferred a hike
- Activity upgraded to strong; inflation "remains elevated"
- Seven rate votes in 2027, six in 2028; December remains the live meeting
Oil Climbs After a Larger Inventory Draw
West Texas Intermediate last printed about 102.76 dollars (Yahoo at 19:32 UTC; goldoilprice 102.70), against Tuesday's settle of 99.90 and this morning's about 101.53. Session high 103.55. The morning bullish reclaim at Monday's 101.76 settle was taken, and that high took Friday's 103.27. The Energy Information Administration said commercial crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week ended October 23, against a Reuters poll for a small build; Cushing stocks fell 624,000 barrels (EIA, Reuters). The draw, with the unconfirmed Ras Tanura claim still on the docket, kept crude higher. Brent last printed about 111.59 dollars. Oil bullish trigger: a hold through the session high at 103.55. Bearish trigger: a slip through this morning's 101.53, then the session low near 99.75.
- WTI about $102.76 against Tuesday settle $99.90 and this morning about $101.53
- EIA crude -1.9 million barrels; Cushing -624,000; high $103.55
- Oil bullish trigger: hold $103.55; bearish: $101.53 then $99.75
Crypto Check: Bitcoin Fades This Morning's Print
Bitcoin last printed about 81,213 dollars (CoinGecko at 19:42 UTC). Yahoo sat at 81,233, under 1 percent apart. This morning last printed about 81,392. The morning bearish reference at 80,400 was taken (Yahoo session low 80,277), then recovered. The 21-period exponential average near 82,700 remains overhead. The 79,370 zone remains the lower reference. Ether last printed about 2,359 dollars. Prints labeled intraday; crypto's daily candle closes at 00:00 UTC. Bitcoin bullish trigger: a reclaim of 82,700. Bearish trigger: a slip through the session low at 80,277, then 79,370.
- Bitcoin about $81,213 against this morning about $81,392; $80,400 taken, then recovered
- Ether about $2,359; prints labeled intraday
- Bitcoin bullish trigger: reclaim $82,700; bearish: $80,277, then $79,370
After-Hours and Overnight Watch
US cash still has the closing auction as of 20:00 UTC. Spot gold last printed about 4,050 dollars (Kitco 4,050.50, down 0.22 percent; goldoilprice 4,058). This morning last printed about 4,052. The morning bearish reference near 4,027 was taken (Kitco low 4,024), then gold recovered. The 4,100 zone remains overhead. The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.5 percent, the first increase since 2023. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close at 20:00 UTC. Amazon is due Thursday after the close. Docket: the calendar and the week ahead. Gold bullish trigger: a reclaim of 4,100. Bearish trigger: a slip through the session low at 4,024, then 3,999. Scenarios to watch.
- Gold about $4,050; morning bearish $4,027 taken, then reversed; $4,100 overhead
- Bank of Canada hiked to 2.5%; cash still open until 20:00 UTC
- Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index prints are intraday as of 20:00 UTC Wednesday, October 28, 2026.
