Fed Decision This Week as Microsoft and Alphabet Report

The Fed decision this week lands on Wednesday, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. Catch up on last week here: weekly markets roundup. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,623.68. Bitcoin is near 80,664 dollars live. S&P 500 futures reopen Sunday at 22:00 UTC. Times below are Cyprus local next to UTC after this morning's clock change. Docket: the calendar.

The Big One: Fed Decision Wednesday, Then Microsoft and Alphabet

The week pivots on Wednesday, October 28. The FOMC statement prints at 20:00 Cyprus (18:00 UTC), with Chair Kevin Warsh at 20:30 Cyprus (18:30 UTC). No dot plot. Mechanics: FOMC guide. The Committee hiked 25 basis points to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent funds range on September 16. CME FedWatch as of Saturday put an October hike near 9 percent and a December hike near 84 percent (Yardeni). A hold is the base case; the reaction sits on the statement and the vote. Blackout runs through Thursday. Microsoft and Alphabet then report around 22:00 Cyprus (20:00 UTC), with consensus EPS about 4.71 dollars and 2.94 dollars (Stock Titan). Azure growth and both 2027 capex guides are the lines after last week's Nasdaq lost 0.7 percent on Meta's spending print.

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Monday 26 October through Friday 30 October. Consensus versus prior. Not a monthly options-expiry week and not quad-witching. Thursday's GDP surveys clustered near 3.2 percent after 2.2 percent in the second quarter, above the 3.0 percent still sitting on some calendars. Treasury sells 2-year notes Monday, 5-year notes Tuesday, and 7-year notes Thursday. China's Fifth Plenum runs Monday through Thursday. New Zealand is shut Monday for Labour Day.

• Monday, Oct 26: Germany Ifo at 11:00 Cyprus (09:00 UTC), seen 89.8 after 89.9. Verizon before the open.
• Tuesday, Oct 27: Durable goods at 14:30 Cyprus (12:30 UTC), seen +1.4% after -0.1%. Consumer confidence at 16:00 Cyprus (14:00 UTC), seen 80.4 after 81.9. Lagarde at 19:00 Cyprus. FOMC day one.
• Wednesday, Oct 28: Australia CPI at 02:30 Cyprus (00:30 UTC), seen +0.7% / +4.2% after +0.4% / +4.0%. RBNZ at 03:00 Cyprus (01:00 UTC), seen 3.00% from 2.75%. UK Budget at 14:30 Cyprus. Bank of Canada at 15:45 Cyprus (13:45 UTC), a hike to 2.50% about 75 to 85% priced. EIA at 16:30 Cyprus. Then the FOMC.
• Thursday, Oct 29: Q3 GDP, September PCE, and claims at 14:30 Cyprus (12:30 UTC). GDP seen about 3.2% after 2.2%. Core PCE seen +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y after +0.2% / +3.0%. Claims seen 196,000 after 194,000. PCE: CPI guide. ECB at 15:15 Cyprus (13:15 UTC), a hold at 2.50% about 96% priced.
• Friday, Oct 30: Bank of Japan at 05:00 Cyprus (03:00 UTC), seen a hold at 1.25%. Germany and eurozone GDP flashes. Employment Cost Index at 14:30 Cyprus (12:30 UTC), seen +0.8% after +0.9%. Daly and Musalem speak after blackout.

No Bank of England decision this week; the MPC sits November 5. Apple reports Monday, November 2.

Earnings to Watch

FactSet counts about 179 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. The index event is the hyperscaler trio after last week's Meta and Tesla prints.

• Monday before the open: Verizon.
• Tuesday: Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS before the open; Visa after the close.
• Wednesday after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet, plus ServiceNow, T-Mobile, KLA, and SK Hynix.
• Thursday: Eli Lilly, EPS about 5.38 dollars against 7.02 a year ago, and Mastercard before the open. Amazon, EPS about 2.01 dollars, plus Intel, Coinbase, and Strategy after the close.
• Friday before the open: Exxon Mobil, EPS about 3.96 dollars against 1.88 a year ago, plus Chevron, against WTI's Friday settlement of 103.27 dollars.

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 80,664 dollars live (Coinbase; CoinGecko 80,668). Live levels: homepage. No US spot-ETF decision deadline this week. Ethereum developers postponed the Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet rehearsal that had been set for Monday; no replacement date was set. Falcon Finance unlocks about 75 million tokens, around 7.5 million dollars, on Thursday at 13:52 Cyprus (11:52 UTC). Coinbase and Strategy report Thursday after the close.

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a patient-hold path, the FOMC holds, Microsoft and Alphabet hold capex guides, and core PCE prints at 0.3 percent, so Thursday's data trades as data. In a capex-scare path, a spend raise a few hours after a hawkish dissent extends last week's AI unwind into GDP morning. In a hot-data path, GDP at 3.5 percent or core PCE at 0.4 percent would reopen December even after an October hold. Traders watching 7,623.68 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Thursday's 7,663.43 then 7,712.57. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,612.07 low. For Bitcoin, a hold of about 80,664 dollars is the bullish trigger; a slip through Thursday's 79,800 is the bearish one. These are observations, not instructions.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. The S&P 500 figure is Friday's cash close for October 23, 2026. Bitcoin is live as of this Sunday note. Levels cited are observations, not instructions to buy or sell any asset.