As flagged in this morning's analysis, overnight E-mini December futures sat near 7,736 against Wednesday's 7,718.94 cash close, and September PPI at 12:30 UTC was the next inflation print before the October 27-28 FOMC. The overnight premium did cash. Headline PPI printed 1.3 percent month on month versus 0.5 percent expected, the largest gain since March 2022. The S&P 500 closed 7,744.06, up 0.33 percent, after tagging 7,669.66 then reversing. This is the evening scorecard, not an instruction.
The Close: S&P 7,744.06 After Overnight ES Near 7,736 Cashed
The S&P 500 closed 7,744.06, up 0.33 percent (Associated Press / Yahoo). Range 7,669.66 to 7,754.15. Overnight ES near 7,736 did cash. The session low broke Wednesday's 7,693.31 and held October 1's 7,666.45. The high failed this morning's 7,786.11 bullish trigger. October 6's 7,818.93 record close remains unrepaired. The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,713.03, up 0.08 percent, range 26,308.85 to 26,754.02. The Dow closed 52,177.69, up 1.08 percent. The Russell 2000 closed 2,767.27, up 1.38 percent. Health care, materials and consumer discretionary led. Technology lost about 0.65 percent. Energy fell about 1.58 percent even as crude rallied. The 10-year yield fell about 9 basis points to 5.10 percent. The 30-year last printed about 5.43 percent, a fade of about 10 basis points. FedWatch October hike odds sat near 29 percent, down from Wednesday's peak near 37 percent. West Texas Intermediate last printed about 97.57 dollars versus this morning's about 94.28. Brent last printed about 105.76 dollars. S&P bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,786.11 toward Wednesday's 7,805.45. Bearish trigger: a slide through today's 7,669.66, then October 1's 7,666.45.
- S&P 7,744.06 (+0.33%); range 7,669.66-7,754.15; overnight ES ~7,736 did cash
- Nasdaq 26,713.03 (+0.08%); Dow 52,177.69 (+1.08%); Russell 2,767.27 (+1.38%)
- WTI ~$97.57 vs morning ~$94.28; 10-year ~5.10% (-9 bp); FedWatch Oct ~29%
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,786.11 toward 7,805.45; bearish: 7,669.66, then 7,666.45
Story of the Day: Hottest PPI Since 2022 Meets a Dow Rotation
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.3 percent in September, the largest monthly advance since March 2022, after an upwardly revised 0.5 percent in August (BLS; Reuters). The 12-month rate hit 6.3 percent versus about 5.3 percent expected. Core PPI rose 0.7 percent on the month versus 0.3 percent expected, and 5.0 percent year over year versus 4.4 percent. Goods prices rose 2.6 percent. Energy jumped 10.8 percent. Gasoline rose 20.3 percent. Retail sales printed 0.8 percent versus about 0.3 percent expected. Jobless claims printed 199,000. The tape opened on the Asia chip rout, then rotated. Nike closed 37.14 dollars, up 5.21 percent. UnitedHealth closed 406.66 dollars, up 2.79 percent. CoreWeave closed 69.69 dollars, up 5.94 percent, after Nvidia's Jensen Huang commented on the operator. Charles Schwab posted adjusted EPS of 1.69 dollars versus about 1.65 and record core net new assets of 190.4 billion dollars; shares still fell about 2.6 percent. TSMC's ADR still closed down about 1.9 percent after the overnight record quarter. Nasdaq bullish trigger: a hold of 26,713 through today's 26,754 high. Bearish trigger: a slip through today's 26,308.85 low.
- PPI +1.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected; +6.3% y/y vs 5.3%; core +0.7% / 5.0%
- Energy +10.8%; gasoline +20.3%; retail +0.8%; claims 199,000
- Nike +5.21% to $37.14; UNH +2.79% to $406.66; CoreWeave +5.94% to $69.69; SCHW ~-2.6% after a beat
- Nasdaq bullish trigger: hold 26,713 through 26,754; bearish: 26,308.85
Crypto Check: Bitcoin Recovers to $82,286 After Tagging $79,800
Bitcoin last printed about 82,286 dollars (TradingView 82,286; MarketWatch CoinDesk 82,335). That sits above this morning's about 81,073 and Wednesday evening's about 81,880. Session range about 79,800 to 82,634. The low tagged through Thursday's about 80,300 floor, then recovered. Ether last printed about 2,458 dollars (TradingView 2,458.2) versus this morning's about 2,354. Live levels: homepage. BTC bullish trigger: a reclaim of 82,634 dollars, then Wednesday's 84,147. Bearish trigger: a slip through about 79,800.
- Bitcoin ~$82,286; bounce from this morning's ~$81,073
- Range ~$79,800-$82,634; Ether ~$2,458 vs morning ~$2,354
- BTC bullish trigger: reclaim $82,634 then $84,147; bearish: $79,800
After-Hours and Overnight Watch
Spot gold last printed about 4,170 dollars, a bounce from this morning's about 4,143. The move is about 1.6 percent, under the 2 percent bar for a standalone long-term gold story. Wednesday's two-month low near 4,066 remains the floor. Gold bullish trigger: a hold of 4,170 through today's high. Bearish trigger: a slip through about 4,099, then 4,066. Alcoa, Interactive Brokers and J.B. Hunt report after the close. Friday at 03:30 UTC: Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF. Eurozone HICP final at 09:00 UTC. US industrial production at 13:15 UTC, seen +0.4 percent. Travelers, Truist, M&T and Citizens print before the open into monthly OpEx. Seoul and Tokyo reopen after Thursday's Kospi 5,554.22 close and Nikkei 64,425.95 close. Oil bullish trigger: a hold of 97.57 through 98.32. Bearish trigger: a slip through today's 93.59 low. Docket: week ahead and the calendar. Scenarios to watch.
- Gold ~$4,170 after tagging $4,170 and $4,099; Wednesday low ~$4,066 remains the floor
- Friday 03:30 UTC: Warsh at the IMF; HICP 09:00 UTC; industrial production 13:15 UTC ~+0.4%; TRV, TFC, MTB, CFG; monthly OpEx
- WTI bullish trigger: hold $97.57 through $98.32; bearish: $93.59, then $94.28
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Thursday, October 15, 2026. Gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 20:45 UTC.
